8:58 am (Hawaii) Now that $1,764 — Jim Sinclair's level and entry way to exponential rise in spot gold price — has been breached, a look again at James Turk's interview of Sinclair. This was done on Aug 7 at GATA in London. This is the long (10-minute) version, a classic exchange between two financial gurus who understand the value of real money.
2:31 am (Friday) Here's one more for the list of "Huh?" comments by some of my favorite market gurus. All are paraphrased. I'm too lazy to go get the ver batim quote.
Bix Weir: Ben Bernanke is purposefully attempting to destroy the fiat currency system by printing paper money to eventual nothingness.
James Altucher: The Dow is heading to 20,000. Or beyond.
Mike Maloney: We will have $30 crude oil, possibly $10.
James Turk: Gold and silver will explode this summer.
9:18 pm (Hawaii) Another huge run for silver and gold, two days in a row following a three-day weekend. I didn't touch a thing, still mostly in cash with a bit of DGP and a growing stack of physical. Turd Ferguson warns against overexcitement, noting that the CME mafia often kneecaps the spot market 24 hours before jobs reports (due Friday).
This range between 33 and 39 can be unnerving if you have no plan. My plan is to ride it out with as much dry powder at my side as possible and load up gradually as the doldrums of summer cease. Patience is golden. If I've missed the boat, I've missed the boat. My favorite miners, XG and EXK, made huge gains again and topped my Metals list. It's not a lack of faith in their business models and potential. I am just another trader who is cautious about blatant manipulation by the CME mafia. I can wait. And wait.
1:52 am (Hawaii) Sure, I like the truth-tellers, the men and women who put the facts out there whether the public wants to hear it or not. But nobody's perfect. My favorite analysts and market gurus have said some wacky things in the past year or so. Can they all be right? Can they all be wrong? The answer lies somewhere in between.
James Altucher: The Dow is heading to 20,000. Or beyond.
Mike Maloney: We will have $30 crude oil, possibly $10.
James Turk: Gold and silver will explode this summer.
10:30 am (Hawaii) Just a lazy morning in Honolulu, partly cloudy, 80 degrees, light tradewinds as I enjoy the coolness out on my lanai. Haven't touched the TV remote all morning and enjoying zero white noise. DJ +0.6% to 12,261. Nas +0.4% to 2,740. S&P +0.8% to 1,307. End-of-month window dressing continues. Crude oil up; UCO +4.5% on roughly double of yesterday's volume.
AGQ, GPL, NUGT, COPX, PAAS, NGD, CU, GDXJ, DBS, AG, SLV, SLW top my Metals list (74% green). The miners: NUGT, GDXJ, SLW have significantly higher volume today, but the rest of the leaders had matching numbers to yesterday. Miners were long overdue for a bounce. Beware of dead cats.
2:06 pm (Hawaii) Catching up on the past 24 hours of info. China bailing out Eurozone? Not shocking. No wonder the market was giddy today even before Greece agreed officially to semi-austerity measures.
(video) SilverGoldSilver: SLV trading like a POS (June 20 2011)
• I like how he's about to wrap up halfway through (around 4:50), then goes on with some blunt observations about the price action in SLV. You can disagree with him about the coming end of SLV or not, but it's GREAT to hear his commentary via video/audio. Rated R (language).
(video) GoldMoneyNews: James Turk and Steffen Krug (June 20 2011)
• Krug is founder of the Institute for Austrian Asset Management, based in Germany.
(video) GoldMoneyNews: James Turk and Lawrence Parks (June 18 2011)
• Parks is executive director of FAME, an educational group with a strategy based on sound money.
Library time
Turd Ferguson: Monday charts (June 20 2011)
• Turd the Great notes that Gold needs to consolidate at 1540 before making a move above 1550 (resistance). Also, that Silver needs to stay above 36.25 to make a run at the key 38 level. He says much, much more, of course.
2:11 pm (Hawaii) Just back from some fun stuff on an overcast, windy afternoon in the islands. It's gratifying to actually enjoy being outside without a care in the world, at least for an hour or two. Now, time to catch up with the market, precious metals and bullion prices.
James Turk interviewed by King World News today:
"...the strong bounce we saw after the test early in the morning, people are now starting to recognize that 35 is solid (on silver), 1520 on gold is solid, and I think you're going to see people piling in on the long side from here. ... This is going to be a spectacular summer. It's not going to be like most summers where gold grinds and goes sideways. This is going to be more like 1982 where the gold price and silver price soar because of extraneous news events, and I think that comes from Europe. ... Bullish sentiment is low, that means people are out of the market, which means it's time to buy. ... The correction, I think, is finished."
10:03 am (Hawaii) Opened a partial position on XG at 10.73. If it slips to 10.43 or so, I may add a few more shares. I'm expecting a gradual gain in Spot Gold this week with so much uncertainty in Europe and so much bullishness on PMs in China and other global markets. Unlike Gold, Spot Silver is not QE-proof, and until there is evidence of more POMO funds going into the market, silver will diminish gradually with the equity market ... unless today's Shanghai news is just the tip of the iceberg.
I'm not hoping (well, yes I am) that the news (and anticipation) of Shanghai's silver futures market (due to open in December) will send the spot price to the moon. I'm hoping that we get more consistently higher prices that will counter any CME Mafia attacks. I do NOT believe in using margin, but I am NOT against it either. Free markets should allow leverage as long as borrowers make good on their debts. Goes both ways, so more power to the borrower and hopefully he doesn't get blasted when volatility hits. (And those of you who rely on leverage, you know anything that is overhyped is going to be too good to be true; nothing is an automatic home run.)
So, 1. I don't expect Hong Kong gold futures or Shanghai silver futures to kick spot gold to 2000 or spot silver to 50 (or 100), but 2. I do hope that these additions will keep the market stable without losing volatility that traders like me want to play in. Otherwise, I'm staying in cash.
Imagine tens or hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens trading paper gold and silver ... while also owning a ton of physical silver and gold. The central bank there could pull a mafia move with major margin requirement changes on any spot peak price ... but just getting to that peak would be astronomical in height and speed.
Update 11:25 am (Hawaii) Dennis Gartman on the euro and gold during Fast Money:
"Absolutely, I've said it for months and months and months. You want to own gold but predicated in non-US dollar terms. You want to own gold in euro terms. You want to own gold in sterling terms. You want to own gold in Swiss franc terms., and if you take a look at it, even if gold in US dollar terms is not making new highs, gold in euro terms today made new highs. Gold in sterling is making new highs. Much more impressive to be long of the gold market in euro terms, in sterling terms, in Swiss franc terms. I was impressed today that gold traded higher on the day. Even in US dollar terms, as crude oil was down at one time 3 dollars, and most commodities were going down. ... People are moving out of the euro and they're moving into gold as the other currency. It's a very logical trade."
Update 1:17 pm (Hawaii) A few thoughts from James Turk via King World News:
“I think this summer is going to surprise a lot of people. Many are thinking this is going to be another typical summer where precious metals prices are weak, but it doesn’t always happen that way Eric. Sentiment is set up this way because it has been 29 years since we have seen a big rally in the summer. Back in 1982, the Mexican debt default lit a fire under the precious metals and the gold price nearly doubled over the next six months.”
I noted the other day that Spot Gold has meandered in the past two summers before spiking up later in 2009 and '10. But things are different now, aren't they?
Update 1:45 pm (Hawaii) Hugo Salinas Price interview with James Turk back in February.
Update 3:28 pm (Hawaii) Some stuff I watched and read this afternoon while procrastinating. Spot Gold is climbing, now 1518 with Hong Kong open. Spot Silver up, too, now 35.14.
What I had to do was to find stocks that would be hoisted up because they stirred people's imagination for the future. ... I was not interested in the company's individual products, whether it was metals for rockets, solid fuel, or advanced electronic equipment. In fact, I did not want to know what they made—that information might only inhibit me. I did not care what the company's products were, any more than I was influenced by the fact that the board chairman had a beautiful wife. But I did want to know whether the company belonged to a new vigorous infant industry and whether it be haved in the market according to my requirements.
This, of course, was directly against the advice of many financial writers with conservative backgrounds who have been pounding into investors for generations that they must study company reports and balance sheets, find out all they can about a stock's background, in order to make a wise investment. I decided that was not for me. All a company report and balance sheet can tell you is the past and the present. They cannot tell the future. And it was for this I had to project my plans.
