Showing posts with label Japan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Japan. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Peaks, valleys and necklines


3 am (Hawaii) Examining AAPL and QID from yesterday's afterhours trading and this morning's premarket action, QID is roughly where it was at yesterday's AH close, 52.79.

AAPL, however, is among the bottom-feeders on my watch list so far today at 347.71, down 0.78%. It gives me a little more credence in my theory about the trading range, 326 to 365. The midpoint of that range is 345.5, and though volume and momentum always fluctuate without clear, definite reason, the price tells so much. Price is one of the reasons why I'll check futures and stock prices before I catch up on global or domestic news.

In a skittish, flimsy market like this, we have peaks and valleys often based on nothing more than big-money manipulation. When the hedgies have had their fill at the AAPL buffet line, they dive out of the building after setting the gas lines on fire, and all us little peasants are still in the line, loading up on fattening desserts like the fine gluttons we are. This is why I'm always wary about AAPL above 350 and always willing to consider a position below 345. It's a chickenpoop approach, you might say, but I'd rather manage risk and ride it between 340 and 350 than buy above 350 with such thin volume.

Elephants on melting ice. Bad combination. Everything sinks to the bottom of that cold pond when the elephants dance too hard.

In an environment like this, issues like CHGS go flying to the moon. CHGS (China Gengsheng Minerals) was up more than 20% earlier in PM but has pulled back a bit and is now at 3.45. CAUTION advised. Don't get caught in that tsunami now that the early traders have begun booking big profits. You could get swallowed up and pummeled a loss far larger than you ever feared. If you go XL on CHGS, please for mercy's sake have the sense to hedge your bet with puts. Protect your ass. The market never will do so much for you.

LULU is also up, 2.15% to 87.10. Another sign that this market is in risky territory. A LULU top is often followed by a painful pullback for those who are all-in.

UCO flat. EXK, PASS, SLW, SLV all flat. GLD and NGD are fractionally down, too.

Times like this, in between earnings seasons, media has little to do but dwell on danger spots. There is no catalyst in the short term for AAPL or any other substantial mover. Daytraders will move in and out quickly, sending the CHGS and LULU stocks of the world soaring, then right down off a cliff.

Still 100% cash and watching with another wondrous piece of technology.


Necklines? I know it's not just me noticing that CNBC has Mark Haynes off-air (vacation?) and in his place is a blonde anchorwoman with big hair and a seriously low neckline. Probably the most boobage seen on CNBC since that Hugh Hefner special. Or that porn industry documentary. Comparing ratings today versus when Haynes is on air would be interesting. 

Some Amanda Drury photos off Google. 





Maybe she doesn't mind being eye candy. Otherwise, at what point does she tell the producer, "Bugger off, bitch!" 


Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Lay, lie, die ... or not



(9:01 pm, Hawaii) Lies, lies, lies. What else could come out of Japan now that this debacle has ensued? Bloomberg: Fukushima engineer says he covered up flaw at shut reactor No. 4.

And now, some perspective, which is often well provided by James Altucher: Was Greece just nuked? 

Alutcher says: "It's a scam. The pundits need something to talk about. The media needs something to make you panic and scared. The larger institutional investors need mom and pop to sell their retirement portfolio to them at cheap prices. So they all scare you to save their own lives and businesses."

Who needs a helmet anyway?



(2:45 am, Hawaii) AAPL was trading below 341 when I got home a little while ago. 43% of my watch list was green. Not bullish, not bearish. Just drifting. But 10 minutes ago, volume entered AAPL in premarket and boosted shares to a high of 343.43. AAPL was at 330 just two sessions ago (Friday), so this is something to ponder.

At the same time AAPL, NFLX and GOOG were showing some strength in premarket, the rest of my list began to sink. It got as low as 33% green. SLW slightly down. Crude oil down. Yen slightly up. Japan slightly down. AAPL now back below 343. What does it all mean?

I'm not sure. Therefore, I won't be chasing AAPL this morning, not after yesterday's 10-dollar gain on low volume. After all, Charlie Brown has no business believing Lucy's lies unless he gives it another try while wearing a helmet or some kind of protection (hedge with QID?). Let her go fool some other clown.

In the meantime, WNR is fairly durable in this choppy market. Oil refiners are almost bulletproof in this environment. Aaaalllllmost...

(Update, 9:30 am, Hawaii) 30 minutes left in the session and it's a sea of red. Just 33% of my watch list is green. It's ugly out there. NFLX is holding on to most of its gains thanks to the thumbs up from Credit Suisse. Every time CS gives a stock the double thumbs-up, it rockets. Writing fiction was never so easy. NFLX is the leader in its sector, but come on ... if you own NFLX, more power to you, though. The shorts are getting freshly squeezed.

UCO is also powering higher, up 4% as crude oil tops $104 a barrel. UCO was in the red when the opening bell sounded, but is up 2.15 to 55.31. AAPL has held on to some of its gain, well off its HOD above 342, now at 340.94. I don't see that holding much longer given this backwards momentum and yesterday's lack of conviction. Yes, even in a $10 move, there wasn't much volume. Only 10M shares traded in AAPL so far today.



Gizmodo: New photo shows how they are cooling down Fukushima (Mar 22 2011)
CNN Money: Netflix buys its first original show (Mar 22 2011)
Fast Money: Netflix to become cable company to the world? (Mar 22 2011)
Fast Money: Crude oil could spike to 110 (Mar 22 2011)
Bloomberg: All clear sounded as markets shrug off multiple black swans (Mar 22 2011)
Bloomberg: Radiation found in sea as work goes on to restore power (Mar 22 2011)
Business Insider: Water at Reactor #4 is heating up (Mar 22 2011)
CNN Money: Nikkei up 4.4% (Mar 22 2011)
Reuters: Stocks extend gains in EMs (Mar 22 2011)
Benzinga: Credit Suisse upgrades Netflix to outperform (Mar 22 2011)
Reuters: China rare earth prices explode as export volumes collapse (Mar 22 2011)
Business Insider: Hedge funds bought the dip (Mar 22 2011)

Monday, March 21, 2011

Monday bull party


(11:30 am, Hawaii) Talk about complete melt-up. At one point, when I wasn't sleeping through the session, my watch list was 83% green. That's basically bullish to the extreme since the other 17% are mostly bear plays.

DJIA +1.5%, Nasdaq +1.8%, S&P 500 +1.5%.

Volume wasn't great in AAPL (14.7M), but the 2.7% run from 330.67 (Friday) to 339.73 (afterhours today) is incredible. The 100-day moving average was tested three days in a row (Wed/Thur/Fri) before bouncing today. Will the 50-day MA (346+) prove to be a ceiling?

Everything with a pulse move up, from BIDU (+3%) and GOOG (+2.6%) to Japan (EWJ (+2.2%). The yen softened; FXY slightly down (-0.4%).

LVS gained 6.4%, while other recent gainers like OPEN (+2.4%) and HAIN (+2.5%) rose.

Precious metals roared. SLW gained 5.9% to 42.25 (afterhours). EXK +5.1% to 9.62, PAAS +3.6%, PHY +2.4%, SLV +3.2%. NGD +3.4% and GLD +0.7%. Great day for the metal bugs. SLW and EXK ranked second and third on my list of gainers.

WNR, Le Fly's favorite oil refiner play, gained 4.4% to 21.59. UCO gained 1.1% (53.33).

Big losers were TVIX (-15.4%, 44.85), VXX (-7.5%, 32.70), TZA (-7.1%), EDZ (-5.1%) and QID (-3.6%). PSUN also sold off again, down 1.9% to 3.62. C also fell 1.6% to 4.43. Interestingly, X dropped 0.6%.

I'm content to stay in cash here until the puzzle is solved. Which is probably never going to happen. AAPL is my vehicle of preference, and if the runway clears for a flight to new highs, I'll get a ticket. Until then, this is a range-bound titan, from 326 to 360, and there is money to be made in that space. Hat's off to those who bought at 330 on Friday.

Bloomberg: Tokyo Electric says Fukushima fuel rods damaged, leak to sea (Mar 21 2011)
Reuters: Oil lifted by Mideast unrest, Libya conflict (Mar 21 2011)
Bloomberg: Japan futures, nuclear stocks advance as reactor crisis eases (Mar 21 2011)
Business Times: AT&T's big deal lifts Wall St (Mar 21 2011)
AP: Developments in Japan's disasters, nuclear crisis (Mar 21 2011)
Business Insider: What about the Plutonium MOX? (Mar 21 2011)
The Guardian: Google accuses China of interfering with Gmail system (Mar 21 2011)

Friday, March 18, 2011

Weekend reading

This is tonight's supermoon.


March 11: Not a supermoon
(photo: EarthSky)

(new) Reuters: Obama woos Brazil while Libya air assault unfolds (Mar 20 2011) The U.S. is taking a keen interest in the deep-sea oil reserves that Brazil is starting to tap off the Rio coast.
(new) CNN: Libyan ruler defiant as airstrikes by coalitoion forces enter 2nd day (Mar 20 2011)
(new) iBankCoin: U.S. whores itself for Libyan oil reserves (Mar 19 2011)
Howard Lindzon: The Internet 'Black Swan' (Mar 19 2011)
Steve Blank: New rules for the new Internet bubble (Mar 18 2011)
Reuters: U.N. envoy sees military action after summit (Mar 18 2011)
Business Insider: Tepco says power line connected (Mar 18 2011)
Cain Thaler/iBankCoin: Long Uranium (Mar 18 2011)
EarthSky: Did a supermoon cause the March 11 earthquake in Japan (Mar 17 2011)
Dave Fry: Gadhafi does a head fake (Mar 18 2011)

(new) Rays of demolition
Le Fly noted that $56.9 million worth of missiles just landed in Libya. That makes Raytheon alluring. Since the Middle East madness began, RTN ran from 44 to its current range of 49-53. Maybe it opens at 54 on Monday morning.

Somebody's got to provide the weaponry

Silver Moon Madness?
I have to take a look at what happened in silver and EXK this week. I held EXK briefly on Wednesday, taking a very small loss as it stalled and slumped to 8.10. By Friday, EXK gapped up above 8.70 and closed at 9.15.

Silver futures pop through short-term resistance

EXK: Midweek consolidation? 

Gap up for EXK, but still in trading range

SLW's fall from the top may have finally leveled

Where does SLW go from here?
Best guess: sideways

Sour Apple
The long swings in AAPL have been massive to the upside, but the downside can seem almost as wild. 

Buy and hold? Not exactly

Buy and hold is not a great idea with AAPL at these levels. I've been in and out with moderate success over the years. Holding from 100 or 200 was great if you had the stomach for market turbulence. The past 10 days have been wickedly bad for longs. I got out a few weeks ago at 360 when rumors about Steve Jobs' health (i.e. a visit to the doctor) surfaced after hours. Since then, even with the launch of iPad 2, the stock has been bashed by hedge funds emptying out. Every gain during the past week was met by selling pressure, taking AAPL to 330 today. 

50-day moving average was violated this week.
Now the 100-day MA is being tested with 
200-day MA possibly next.

An 8-10% pullback from this level — another global crisis or worsening of situations in Libya or Japan — is possible. If the Steve Jobs resignation rumor is true, 10% down takes AAPL to 300, which is the next level of support. Difficult to see a plunge any lower than that, not with huge profit margins and the iPad 2 in heavy demand. Problem is, until the parts supply issue is solved (Japan), getting back to the high will happen later rather than sooner. Guess here is that best-case scenario (Jobs stays on as CEO) has AAPL trading between 326 (near-term support) and 360. Worse case: 300 to 326 until earnings (April 19). 




Thursday, March 17, 2011

Burn rubbuh

(Art: Jasper Goodall)

12:15 pm (Hawaii). UCO fell off a cliff for several sessions before gapping today with crude oil's rally. On the daily, UCO has traded technically (stochastics) for the past month. Today's MACD is inconclusive, however, and volume was small. At 53, it is mired in a range (47-57) that makes a buy here edgeless. Violence in the Middle East is practically priced into the market. Obama isn't about to make a grand decision while in Rio. Maybe a grand gesture, but the White House has been loathe to assume USA-as-world-police status.

So, the 7.1% move in UCO was great for yesterday's buyers. I'll keep watch from the rafters.

66% of my watch list is in the green afterhours. CRR, another oil-related play, is up 6.5%. ENY, a Canadian oil play, is up 3.7%. VLO +2.3%. Even OIH is up 3.4%. WNR (refiner) is plus 1.5%.

With food prices soaring, Ag is another play. MOS is up 2%.

Metals? FCX bounced 4.2%. NGD is up 3.8%. SLW is +1.7% to 39.09. EXK +1.3% to 8.42. X is +1.6%.

Most of the market gains, however, slipped away in the afternoon. Still a positive day for DJIA (+161, +1.4%), Nasdaq (+19, +0.7%) and S&P 500 (+16, +1.3%). Not convinced just yet, though. If Japan continues to make progress on the Fukushima nuclear reactors, screens will remain green. But it smells like a dead cat, and it is obvious that many traders get out before the closing bell. It's a nibbler's market.

Bombing out today were TVIX (55.97, -7%), which actually rallied off its low of 53.12. LULU (-4.2%), EDZ (-4.1%), VXX (-3.1%), CMG (-2.6%), AMZN (-2.1%), QID (-2%) all bit dust today.

The Globe & Mail: Fukushima 50 risking their lives to try to prevent meltdown (Mar 17 2011)
MarketWatch: UN backs no-fly zone, strikes in Libya (Mar 17 2011)
MarketWatch: Oil futures top $103 after UN vote on Libya (Mar 17 2011)
Rohan Clarke: Less money, more money — QE3 in the headlights (Mar 17 2011)
Charles Rotblut: Bullish sentiment craters (Mar 17 2011)
BBC: Cable reaches Japan nuclear plant (Mar 17 2011)
Majoni* Celebrations: Wearables that contribute and show support (Mar 17 2011)
WSJ: Retailers push Amazon on taxes (Mar 17 2011)
IBD: Lululemon falls as demand outpaces inventory (Mar 17 2011)
WCSI News Talk: Former Shell Oil prez predicts $5 gas in 2012 (Mar 17 2011)
IBD: Yanzhou Coal, Carbo Ceramics up (Mar 17 2011)

(photo: Carbo Ceramics)

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Calming down

Nikkei got smacked at the open, rallied into positive territory and finished down 1.4% or so.

Not too shabby!

The Australian: Fukushima nuclear plant owner falsified inspection records (Mar 17 2011)
NY Times: Scientist project path of radiation plume (to California) (Mar 16 2011)
Data Diary: Less money, more money — QE3 in the headlights (Mar 17 2011)
Jason Schwarz: Is the Japan crisis completely overblown? (Mar 16 2011)

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

AAPL an upgrade away from ...


AAPL 6 month daily chart
50-day MA is the rope of hope

Saved by the banksters:
Safe to say Goldman Sachs saved 
NFLX's ass from a 4-6% drop today

Banksters got NFLX's back
Silver and gold ... not so much backup
Can't fight them banksters (JP Morgan naked shorters)!

Update, 8:49 pm (Hawaii). AAPL clinging, clinging, clinging to that 50-day moving average. I say clinging with just one finger on that cliff. But if NFLX can be spared downward flight with an upgrade from Goldman Sachs (target $300) — in the midst of a colossal disaster in Japan that wrecked markets globally — imagine what an upgrade for AAPL would do. Guess here is that GS and a lot of fund managers are collecting all the shares they can with their bony, falcon claws before those upgrades arrive. And they will arrive sometime. Just a matter of when.

Update, 10:27 pm (Hawaii). As I catch up on tonight's news and blogs, it strikes me more and more that the one-sided, all-or-nothing hardheads who keep pumping precious metals are getting annoying and scary. Turd Ferguson is an huge exception. His balanced view, albeit pro-PMs, is one of the few voices in the PM blogosphere that I can relate to. He cautions. He empathizes. He prays for the victims in Japan. He keeps a vigilant watch on silver and gold. He expects surges and pullbacks. He is an exception. Many of the other metal bugs barely, if at all, mention Japan. It's ridiculous and insane how that is possible. If gold and/or silver is dropping, can it all be blamed on Blythe Masters and JP Morgan? Really? Isn't there a horrific nuclear fail going on in the third largest economy on Earth?

I'm not saying that intelligent bloggers are ignoring the facts. But this is the danger of an all-in mentality when it comes to blogging. It happened here with silver and gold. It happened a few years back with DNDN (Dendreon). I'm sure it happened a thousand other times before and will happen again a thousand times more. Just switch out the device and use the same formula: us against the world, good versus evil, smart versus corrupt. I have no doubt there is fricking evil in the marketplace, but is it anybody else's fault that so many people are undiversified and/or refuse to sell their bleeding, 100% position in an overbought, hyped-up issue?

I've been through those battles and lost too many. That's why it annoys me to see the one-sidedness of so many blogs written by otherwise smart people. When the mantra completely ignores global catastrophes and pounds away with "buybuybuy!" I get skeptical instantly. Just hoping most people had the sense to be nimble on their feet when it came to trumpeted "guaranteed winners."

Greed is not good.

AP: New reactor fire stokes fears as Japan struggles with crisis (Mar 16 2011)
Business Week: Bahrain clears protestors from rallying point after GCC support (Mar 16 2011)
Zero Hedge: Radiation in Ibaraki rises to 300x normal (Mar 16 2011)
James Dines: It's the End Game now (Mar 15 2011)
iBankCoin: Fly: Bearish (Mar 15 2011)

Receding tide or market tsunami?

(Photo: Fortune)

Update, 3:05 pm (Hawaii). Still getting used to the change in time zones. We're six hours difference from the East Coast now, not five. Catches me off guard when 2 o'clock arrives and I realize aftermarket has closed. 

What a comeback by the market in the latter half of the session. Now futures are mostly green, though not by more than six-tenths of a percent. Still quite interesting considering nothing in Japan has been secured. The nuclear reactors are still a threat. But emotional trading hit the market in the past 48 hours and that has finally petered out, apparently. Still a long way until tomorrow's opening bell, of course. 

AAPL's ride today was an opportunity for the risk-takers. The only other stock that interests me is WNR (oil refiner). I have no interest in playing the volatility (TVIX, VXX) or bearish ETFs. Not sure why; I used to like VXX a lot. I'm at peace waiting this out. 

Looking ahead: Aside from oil refiners like WNR, watching coal plays (Japan needs energy) and Bakken Shale plays. Whether you are in favor of these or not, the media will milk all it can out of these stories. Propaganda, whatever. Still keeping an eye on precious metals, but the seasonal rotation out has begun en masse, it seems. 

AAPL is still my preferred vehicle. If outflows become massive, that'll put a lid on AAPL short term, similar to 2009. But if money stays in the market, hedge funds will pile on. Again. It happened today with NFLX. It will happen with AAPL, if this crisis passes. Apparently, information coming out of Fukushima is wildly contrasting. I don't believe anything they're saying, not much anyway, except what Kudlow said about the Prime Minister asking the officials in Fukushima, "What the hell is going on?!" 

Update, 4:10 pm (Hawaii). Short note on AAPL. Previous support was at 338 and 326. Today's drop to 340 was close enough to test 338 ... but I'd like to see a dip below 340 to see if 338 really will hold. Guess here is iPad 2 momentum is too strong and 338 won't fall. But the problems in Japan continue, so anything is possible before the opening bell tomorrow.

Business Insider: Another fire at Reactor #4, two workers missing (Mar 15 2011)
Dave Fry: Rumors dominate markets  (Mar 15 2011)
Warren Mosler: Welcome to the 7th US Depression (Mar 15 2011)
Jon Bon Jovi: Steve Jobs killed the music business (Mar 15 2011)

Now that is a beautiful wig

5:21 am (Hawaii). What else would you say if someone asked you about their beautiful wig? Would you ask why they had to wear one? Isn't the truth sometimes not so preferable? It is what it is. The market is wearing a wig.

After being away for most of the night, I'm home in early morning. I knew futures were imploding and the market was way, way down at the opening bell nearly two hours ago. My watch list is 18% green, 82% red and I figure it was far worse at the opening bell. But AAPL has rallied from its LOD of 340.10 and is now trading at 345.10. I didn't step in. I'm still watching from the rafters, amazed and horrified by everything going on in this global village of ours. I've been in 100% cash for many days now, with the exception of an overnight trade in AAPL (more like over-weekend) that broke even.

Though AAPL and many stocks are off their lows, I hardly believe they're about to return to yesterday's closing prices. There will be a penalty assessed to the market whether justified or not. The heroism can be someone else's trait. I'll wait until the aftershocks wane and the radiation levels peter out. It could be awhile.

Off the edge: NGD 9.40 (-7.5%), UCO 49.21 (-6.8%), FAS 27.80 (-6.7%), EXK 8.42 (-6%), SLW 39.40 (-5.5%).

The few: TVIX 53.45 (+12.4%), EDZ 22.63 (+7.5%), VXX 35.35 (+6.1%), NFLX 211.48 (+5.1%), TZA 43.98 (+4.9%), QID 55.65 (+3.9%).

These winners, all contrary plays with the exception of NFLX, are off their highs as the market rallies from today's lows. TVIX opened at 57.94. EDZ opened at 23.49. VXX opened at 37.05. TZA opened at 44.73. QID opened at 56.70.

Can't help but wonder how much of the mini-comeback today is due to Fed injection and how much is truly coming from retail and street.

Also, Le Fly remains genius. His call on oil refiners, namely WNR, remains stout. WNR is up 1.6% to 16.24. It opened at 15.50.


Update, 6:32 am (Hawaii). AAPL above 347 for some time, a nice bounce off LOD (340+). Trader's dream. If anything is going to rally off a low, it would the maker of iPad 2 (and the whole smorgasbord of space-alien technology). If only Apple had a solution to the potential meltdowns in Japan. 

Market is remotely healthy now: DJIA -1.5%, Nasdaq -1.5%, S&P 500 -1.46%. 

WNR up 2.75% to 16.43. Refiners look rock solid today and possibly for some time to come. So why won't I step in? 

Odd movers include PSUN (+3.1%), NFLX (+6.7% to 214.57) and F (+0.9% to 14.42). NFLX up on an upgrade. Really. 

Update, 6:41 am (Hawaii). AAPL finally cooling off after the runup off the LOD. Another case of 50% factor. AAPL closed yesterday at 353.56, bottomed today at 340.10. A 50% retrace of the drop puts AAPL at 346.83. AAPL wound up rallying to 347.84, now at 345.87. Human nature can't be measured perfectly, but there are often some fairly reliable areas worth observing. 

Tuesday reading
Sign of the times: Nukalert keychain
Run Red Hot: Silver toppings 2 (Mar 12 2011)
Business Insider: Did lunar perigee amplify the Japan quake? (Mar 11 2011)
ChessNwine: Defense wins championships (Mar 15 2011)

Monday, March 14, 2011

Red alert

Fukushima plant: risk of meltdown
(DigitalGlobe photo)

6:47 pm (Hawaii). I haven't seen the indices this red in a long time. At FinViz.com, it's alertingly red. Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures all more than 2% down. Even precious metals and crude oil are down. There seem to be very few safe havens, though I imagine refiner stocks are still going to tear higher tomorrow. Asian markets are in selloff mode with worsening nuclear meltdown issues in Japan, where the Nikkei sold off 12% on Tuesday on top of the 6% loss on Monday.

In his new book, James Altucher had something productive to say about global crises and the overreaction of markets. (When it hit stores last month, the market was still bullish. No so much now, huh?) It's human nature and it's almost predictable that there will be panic selling. But I do like what some said today about the coming demand for steel, copper and other commodities once Japan gets into rebuilding mode.

Futures
DJIA -273 (-2.3%)
S&P 500 -34.00 (-2.6%)
Nasdaq 100 -55.75 (-2.4%)
Crude Oil -2.86 (-2.8%)
Gold -13.30 (-0.9%)
Silver -0.78 (-2.2%)
Copper -0.04 (-0.9%)

Glad I closed my position AAPL today, even if I missed out earlier on a small profit. Cash is king right now.

Swiss Info: Radiation leaps after Japan plant blasts (Mar 15 2011)
Sydney Morning Herald: Stay indoors: Japanese PM's order (Mar 15 2011)
The Loop: Apple analyst: iPad 2 sold out, 70% to new users (Mar 13 2011)

Monday mourning

3 am (Hawaii). People will move on. Somehow, it is in our nature to endure the worst events and move forward. Disasters, catastrophes, tragedy are unavoidable whether they happen domestically or far away in Japan. What is also unavoidable is the in-your-face video footage of the carnage that continues to strike the people of Japan following Friday's quake and tsunami.

The US market is handling things fairly well, all things considered. Possibly, the weekend gave traders a chance to digest all the suffering abroad. While the Japanese deal with nuclear meltdowns and demolished towns, Saudi Arabia has increased its military presence in Bahrain. Those guys ain't foolin' around for a second. Is it bullish or bearish for oil? I think oil will be capped primarily by the Fed in one way or another. Four-dollar gasoline cannot be allowed to prevail for very long, so going long UCO here is something I will not do.

Meanwhile, iPad 2 sales are big time from what I've seen here in Honolulu, and the lines across America were outlandish. Great strategy by Apple, as usual, to prevent pre-orders, thus stirring up traffic and buzz in malls everywhere.

AAPL shares, which were down to 350 in pre-premarket a few hours ago (out of reach for peons like me), are now trading at 354 and climbing. My watch list was as low as 30% green, but is now 34% with 49% red. Lots can happen before the opening bell, but all things considered, the market is giving Apple its due. If there is no announcement about iPad 2 sales at some point today, that might spur a mini-selloff, but no matter what, the numbers will be robust.

Update, 5:13 am (Hawaii). Market vs. AAPL? Market wins, at least for now. Though AAPL is up fractionally, it has been all lower lows since topping 356 after the opening bell. I got out at 352.79 (stop loss) for a break-even on my trade. It's a slightly bitter pill to swallow after seeing all the enthusiasm and lengthly lines at the Apple store over the weekend. Had I gotten out above 356 today, it would've been a nice, small profit. Sure, AAPL might finish above 353 by day's end, but it's a struggle against mammoth selling pressure. Some of the dump-offs are major as traders simply run for the exits in a declining market. Nasdaq is now down 1.14%.

The choice to not sell at 356 or 355 makes this solely my own fault. No conspiracy theories here. Maybe too much optimism considering the weakness today in the market. It's too bad. I hadn't been this optimistic in some time, but a sell at 355+ would've been a healthy and balanced response. There will be other opportunities to re-enter, just probably not this morning.

Update, 5:30 am (Hawaii). AAPL went north of 353 for a few minutes, but is now back at 352.59. 27% of my watch list is green, 70% red, as lopsided as it's been this morning. Nasdaq down 1.18%. What's worked this morning?

TVIX 50.19 +7.8%, TSO 25.82 +5.3%, TZA 43.02 +4.2%, VXX 34.25 +3.7%, QID 54.20 +1.9%, EDZ 21.79 +1.6%.

Precious metals a mixed bag. PHYS and SLV are up. GLD is up. But PAAS and SLW (-2.5%) are down.

Zero Hedge: Precious metals morning summary (Mar 14 2011)

Friday, March 11, 2011

Weekend reading

Japanese tsunami: Donate to Red Cross (Mar 11 2011)
Newsmax: Japan on 'Path of Core-Melt' nuclear accident (Mar 11 2011)
Apple Insider: AT&T reportedly shipping iPad 2 with delivery with delivery as early as Monday (Mar 12 2011)
I Fix It: iPad 2 wi-fi teardown (Mar 11 2011)
Big Picture: Succinct summation of week's events (Mar 11 2011)
Big Picture: Is Twitter worth more than we think (Mar 11 2011)
Big Picture: Kobe Earthquake's impact on the Nikkei and $/Yen (Mar 11 2011)
Engadget: iPad 2 review (Mar 9 2011)
N.Y. Times: Appeal of iPad 2 is a matter of emotions (Mar 9 2011)
Wall Street Journal: iPad 2: Thin, not picture perfect (Mar 10 2011)
Daring Fireball: The iPad 2 (Mar 9 2011)

And now, the time machine observes wacked out iPad reviews of yesteryear
Bloomberg Businessweek: Apple's hard iPad sell (Feb 5 2010*)
Orange County Web Design Blog: Apple iPad is an iFailure (Jan 27 2010*)
Gizmodo: 8 things that suck about the iPad (Jan 27 2010*)
MarketWatch: Apple's 'revolutionary' iPad leaves fans wanting (Jan 29 2010*)
Bloomberg: Apple iPhone will fail in a late, defensive move: Matthew Lynn (Jan 15 2007*)

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

iPad illusionist

Is that a real word, illusionist? Whatever. This is pretty cool.

Monday, May 31, 2010

Getting real about Euro debt

China's premier tells the Japanese on Monday that a global double-dip recession is a real concern. You know, a few days ago, Western media pushed hard on the notion that China would continue to support Eurozone debt issues. The markets went positive.

How will they spin this one? He isn't saying anything new, but it'll come across as "negative" by the time markets open on Tuesday.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Love it or hate it: IMAX

Yes, I like IMAX. I really like it. Frickin' film industry kicked tail through the recession, especially on IMAX screens. Even after prices jacked up to $19 for 3D. It only gets better...

A couple of weeks ago, my game plan was to keep trading other stocks like C and F until the week before Iron Man 2 is released. Then hop on the IMAX wagon for a nice ride up. Instead, IMAX announced theater deals in Japan and China and the stock exploded over 20. I started a position on Wednesday, failing to enter below 20, but scaling in at 20.15 and 20.40. Today's pullback? I missed the chance to sell in premarket, before the earnings report (2:30 am Hawaii time), after sleeping through my alarm.

I'm not letting go of my shares below 20, though. Not with IM2 and a promising slate of flicks out on the giant screen this summer.

IMAX 19.72 -0.58 -2.86%, low 18.50
> Pro: Dominant leader in 3D
> Pro: Expanding in Japan, China
> Pro: Iron Man 2 out May 7
> Pro: Low float (51 mil)
> Con: Run-up has been huge, even with the pullback
> Summary: Long term, very good prospects, but price action always volatile. Likely to hit 23-24 soon.
> Chart analysis: Sell Confirmed (today) American Bulls

Love it or hate it: Apple


AAPL 268.64 +7.04 +2.69%, low of day 262.01
> Pro: 3G iPad coming next week
> Pro: Souped-up iPhone coming this summer
> Pro: Earnings last week were fantastic (didn't include iPad sales)
> Pro: New revenue stream starting (iAd to take market share from Google)
> Pro: new stores opening in Europe and cellphone-crazy China
> Pro: iPhone has a 70% share of the smartphone market in Japan already
> Pro: Sooner or later, Apple will start its own search engine
> Pro: Forward P/E 17.81
> Pro: Profit margin +21%, oper. margin +29%, ret. on assets +18%, ret. on equity +34%, yoy rev. growth +48%, yoy earnings growth +89%
> Con: Run-up has been extreme, from 192 to 271 in two months; profit-takers abound
> Summary: As safe as any growth stock in our generation. I like it better at 250-255 (pre-earnings)
> Candlestick chart analysis: Wait (today)
American Bulls