Beanieville bulls update

One of my favorite blogs, Beanieville, was bullish on several stocks on April 3. Here's a look at how they've fared since.

AAPL +7.3%
AMZN even
AKAM +2.3%
AZO +4.6%
BIDU +12.3%
CRM +3.6%
FSLR +7.3%
GOOG +6.3%
MA -5.7%
NTES +11.6%
SNDA +13.7%
SPWRA +10.2%
STP +5.4%
V -3.3%
VMW +9.6%

Overall, on a weighted scale, these stocks are up 5.7%. Not bad for just two weeks! I like most of these, too, especially AAPL, BIDU, FSLR, GOOG, SPWRA, V and VMW. Not holding any of these yet, though. The risk/reward in these stocks is pretty favorable, held down only by the credit card guys (MA, V), and they'll recover eventually.

Le Beanieville Index*

Last week, one of my favorite bloggers, Beanieville, went bullish with his favorite stocks for the next run up. Here's a look at those stocks, their closing price that day, Friday's price and the percentage move since.

Beanieville's Bulls
AAPL 115, 119.57 +4%
GOOG 369, 372.50 +1%
VMW 28, 30.01 +7.2%
AMZN 78, 79.77 +2.3%
CRM 37, 37.40 +1.1%
AKAM 20, 20.20 +1%
BIDU 187, 190.32 +1.8%
SNDA 42, 46.41 +10.5%
NTES 27, 28.45 +5.4%
AZO 159, 161.72 +1.7%
V 60, 58.79 -2%
MA 173, 172.46 -0.3%
FSLR 134, 142.05 +6%
SPWRA 24, 26.04 +8.5%
STP 14, 14.40 +2.9%

Average: +3.4%

Why do I keep track? I like Beanieville's picks, for the most part. I've traded in and out of STP and will probably continue to do so later. I like just about all the stocks on his bull list, particularly AAPL, GOOG, VMW, BIDU, AMZN and FSLR (along with STP). This is one of the gauges I can use to see where the better entry points were, or have yet to come.

Dead cat bounce?

The market could not tank one more day. At least not today. Apple has held its ground at 171, not bad considering the rocket ride from 120 to 190 in the first half of this year. Google has stayed firm above 500. Neither are bargains at this point though.

Visa slipped below 67 yesterday and is hanging around 70 now. Is V a bargain below 70? Maybe. MasterCard is also rebounding nicely today. Until there is a revolution in the transaction-handling business, those two will continue to make out like bandits. It's like gas prices. No point in bitching about them. If you can't beat 'em, might want to join 'em.

The picking is slim. So many stocks that were on Cloud 9 six months or a year ago have been torched. Pain is everywhere. But the survivors stand out even more now. I still wonder which of the alternative energy stocks will win over the long haul. First Solar is clearly the frontrunner.

Mr. Brown liked Visa then, but now?

Back in late April, my old pal Mr. Brown was severely bullish on Visa, though I was cautious. I warned about the eventual selloff that comes with any IPO (Google went from 120 to 80 in its first year) and preferred to wait. Well, Mr. Brown's bullish stance was proven right. V ran from 75 in April to 90 by early May.

Yowza. However, Visa has sold off some since. V has dipped three times, really, going to 75 in late May, running back to 88 before June, dipping to 77 and rising to 85 in June. Visa is currently at 72.

I'm more comfortable with the idea of buying MasterCard, but I can't argue against Visa. I'm not a fan of the whole concept of credit cards (and how they have most American consumers by the neck), but I am a fan of the way they churn gargantuan profits.



With Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae scaring the crap out of anyone with ties to financials, this may not be the best time to load up on shares of V. But at 72, this could also be a relative bargain.

Visa now?

I think not. When the lockup period ends, insiders will bail and the stock will plummet.


Nothing wrong or unnatural about that. Google was $125 early, then slipped to $85 before climbing up that magnificent mountain. I still think MasterCard is the better stock for now, but a dip on Visa is going to be highly tempting.