GRPN fireworks show (updated 11:41 am)

10:19 am GRPN beat estimates and the stock spurted to from 11.76 (closing price) to 13.47 in 4 minutes. The Fibonacci retrace for that range is 12.86, and GRPN dropped to 12.72. Now it's at 13.16.

Too bad for me I broke price discipline and jumped in at 13.30 instead of waiting for the bounce (StockGuy22 is a master at that technique). The good thing is, momentum is on the stock's side for a change. This is strictly a short-term trade, definitely no gimmie since it's already up 33% for the day.

The effect of GRPN's beat is tough to measure right now. LNKD, SVVC and GSVC trade very lightly after hours, and the spread is enormous. But it's not a bad guess that they'll gap higher in the morning.

Update 10:53 am Here comes the pre-Fast Money move on GRPN, back to 13.30. Could pop a little more or fizzle depending on what the FM panel says. I expect a mixed bag from them. Nobody really likes the company's business model, but short-term momo is with the stock.

Update 11:07 am GRPN conference call underway, stock hit 13.44. Nearly sold half at 13.23 before the call. Hear it here. They've added more customers in Q1 than 2011 Q4, cut marketing costs big time. margins are 7% compared to a loss previously. They also have $1.2B in cash money. And 75% revenue growth in N. America. (info from Brian Bolan (@bbolan1)

GRPN now at 13.50. Looks like the shorts and pessimists have to acknowledge a better business model now.

Upate 11:12 am More info via Brian Bolan (@bbolan1) ... GRPN has added board members from AXP and Deloitte - deep financial and operating experience ... 30% of deals were done on mobile compared to 25% four months ago ... now does 1.5M purchases ... high online satisfaction survey, strong rollout of new merchant systems (Groupon rewards) - 2,500 merchants signed up ... more than 100K unique merchants in the quarter ... intl on a different technology platform, which is why the growth in NA was better ... first tech initiative underway ...

With 8.4% short interest, the covering is well underway, as well.

Update 11:41 am Got skittish and sold the position at 13.56 as it dipped (+0.26/share). Gave up a lot of paper profit after the run to 13.80, but I got a small profit on a quick trade, cannot complain about a + trade.

Always tempting to hold an earnings winner, but this run from 9.90 (yesterday's close) is massive and there will be fluctuations as traders take profits and new retail dives in. I'd rather play the swings than hold from 13.30. If GRPN is at 20 soon, then I'm wrong and it would be better to just buy and hold. But if it bounces between 13 and 15 all summer, it's a nice way to play the social trade.

Bada bing

11:27 am (Hawaii) Bullish for gold? Fast Money reporting via Doug Kass that someone bought 50,000 gold call options between $1600 and $1800/oz (out of the money). They will expire in August-Sept, a total of $50 million in call premium paid — whatever that means. Kass says given the size of the purchase, it's likely a central bank or sovereign fund. Is this positioning for QE3?

Brian Kelly thinks it's China swinging for a home run, a win-win plus delivery of physical gold. Terranova thinks it's a good trade. Adami isn't sure central banks are allowed to buy calls. "If they're right, they'll make 10 times that."

What they say is always interesting, but doesn't affect my trades. They won't talk about Endeavour Silver or Extorre Gold Mines. Not today.

CME: 5th margin hike in 9 days

11:25 am (Hawaii) There we go. CNBC reporting that CME Group has enacted a fourth fifth margin hike on silver in the past week and a half. This is not shocking anymore. SLV has dropped in the past two minutes, but it's not cratering the way it did last week or earlier this week. The market has come to expect slippage, and in fact has been dropping in advance of margin hikes.

Whatever the case, it's a lot of b.s. for any trader to take, coming just from one stock or ETF. I'm glad I got out before the silver pullback last week. Seems like ages ago.

Fast Money talking to an official from SLV. He won't answer the questions in detail. Looks like a shady dude. No surprise there...

2:05 pm (Hawaii) Afterhours trading is done for the day. I've spent as much time looking at silver coin and bullion prices as I have anything else. It's interesting, educational to a point. But mostly, it's just strangely enticing to look at bullion bars of silver. Bars have something that coins don't, just that sheer chunkage, though nothing seems to have a premium like certain coins, i.e. American Silver Eagles.

I'm learning as I go, and maybe one day I'll have a vast store of precious metals. Maybe I'll say, forget it, it's too late, the time to buy silver was 2009 when Spot was in the teens (or lower) ... not here at 39+ or last week's 49+ per ounce.

ZSL tempted me a bit. Thought about a little position before trading hours ended, but decided to just wait this out. I'm still watching from the ridge with my binoculars, completely in camouflage gear and overnight provisions. Those silver bears are not getting near me.

Some reading for the evening.

King World News: Sprott has more physical silver now than ever (May 3 2011)
(video) Peter Schiff: 'I think the vast majority of the silver correction is over' (May 3 2011)

Update 2:34 pm (Hawaii) Don't mind me and my little precious metals fixation. Sometime in the future, PMs won't be so hot and sexy. I won't be thinking about them so much. It'll be old fashioned again. But for now, all things metal fascinate me. 

Hong Kong to open trading now. Spot Silver is at 38.95. Spot Gold is at 1516.50. If a bounce is coming soon, now might be the time. I'm watching from the woods up on the hill. All cash. 

Update 3:36 pm (Hawaii) Just saw something that knocked me out. On one of the silver/gold shop sites, I saw the 10-ounce silver bars by Johnson Matthey/Engelhard available. I remember that being a silver producer in demand, so the price was a little higher than other 10-oz bars. I had to think for awhile, then concluded that it would be better to wait until tomorrow or Friday to see where Spot Silver price goes. (Currently 39.00.) The price for one bar was $431 or something close that via credit card. 

I surfed around to other shops and stuff for a few minutes, went back to that shop's site, and the same Johnson Matthey/Engelhard bars were "OUT OF STOCK." Talk about demand. Then again, if people are selling silver to shops like mad (from what I understand) this week, more of these should pop up, maybe at a lower price. But I was real close to buying a 10-ouncer for the first time. 

Update 4:27 pm (Hawaii) Spot Silver treading water at 38.96. Spot Gold at 1517.30. Absolutely no lift from Sydney and Hong Kong. Seems everybody's spooked by the five margin requirement hikes. Blood in the water and nobody wants to be a hero. Can't blame them. 

King World News: Ben Davies interview (May 5, 2011) (I think this is a replay of the interview done on Monday, but it remains pertinent.)

Update 5:25 pm (Hawaii) Some very poignant and discerning words from a fellow named Jim Sinclair.

Silver is not money. It is simply too bulky to be freely and universally fungible. After this short play, which had to follow the spike intermediary top, silver will rise as fast as it did again.

Jim Sinclair: Silver being silver (May 4 2011)

King World News/Jim Rickards: QE is dead, QE is perpetual (Mar 11 2011)

Mike Maloney: $39 level has a huge probability of finding support and bounce (May 4 2011)

Rerun

I'm not referring to some people's favorite 1970s sitcom character, though he was definitely funny.

No, it's just good time to start sharing and learning through this blog again. Since returning to the trading world in January, I've been reading and hearing a lot, absorbing many new ideas and fundamentals that I unconsciously boycotted in years past. It's that "more I learn, less I know" thing.

So, after walking away last June or July (after making around 35% in early 2009, then losing most of it back in the downturn), I spent most of my free time doing something new. I took care of some basic heath issues, nothing serious, yet I knew it was time to get some of the flab off my sad, middle-aged body. Working out after work in the midnight hour did me wonders physically and mentally. So did sleeping in during market hours (3:30-10 a.m. here). So I skipped early-morning Hawaiian time Squawk Box, opening bells and even Fast Money and Mad Money.

Staying out of the market for seven or so months was all to my detriment as the market roared ahead the rest of '09. So I've been back, learning, trading cautiously, then not so cautiously ... trying to trade with more discipline, then failing, then more. It's a battle that has been worthwhile to this point despite my floundering ways at times. Between actualized and paper profits, up about 18% since January. Again, should be much higher if not for 1) profits I left on the table waiting too long to rein them in, and 2) issues like oversleeping (re: early hours) through premarket.

Classic example was this morning. The game plan was to sell IMAX before earnings (2:30 a.m. Hawaii time) for a quick profit after scaling in on Wednesday at 20.28. Shares reached 21.60 premarket, then earnings news came out and the stock took a dive.

I didn't sell. I was in bed, having turned off my alarm (I guess?) at 1:40 a.m. By the time I was up, IMAX was down below 20.

The solution is simple: Never go to bed after midnight. (Normally, I'm usually up until and through the opening bell anyway.) And pop open my favorite energy drink(s) once it's past midnight, especially if my strategy for the day involves premarket selling.

So there I go. Trying to narrow down mistakes and challenges while boosting profit. I will tend to dwell on my screw-ups. It's a habit. But more importantly, I hope folks can give me solid, constructive information beyond what I've read and listened to.

Ultimately, trading is a skill in itself that no book can do for me. All tips and shared knowledge, though, are always, always welcome and appreciated. See, all the journaling I do, all the record-keeping I keep on every trade, every thought of a possible trade ... it helps a lot. But at some point, feedback is crucial to really expand and grow. Maybe it's a form of accountability. Or maybe it's just that two heads are usually better than one.

And now, the focus is on execution, which requires discipline, a game plan and more discipline.

Hintz on Fast Money: M2M change will be catalyst

From CNBC's Fast Money today. The segment was titled "Death to Mark-to-Market?"

Brad Hintz
Brokerage Analyst
Sanford Bernstein
#1 financial analyst on the street

Melissa: "Let's go through some of the estimates floating around out there. If you overhaul mark-to-market, it could boost Citigroup's profits by 20 percent. ... (Is) this right on?"

Hintz: "Well, what happens is all the major capital market firms, this is good for. JP Morgan, Citi, Goldman, Bank of America, Wells, Jeffries even. So, this is one where you're taking rules that were well designed. I don't want to say mark-to-market accounting was flawed. It's just that it was designed with the idea that markets don't stay illiquid for long periods of time, so it's really caused some major problems for the firms this time, right, because they've had to mark their balance sheet to distress trades, chaotic trades in the market place which has caused them to sell. I had a trader tell me, 'I know the assets that I've got are good. I know they're going to be worth more than what I marked. I can't hang on to them because they're Level 3. Headquarters won't let me.' "

Melissa: "In terms of a boost to the profits, Brad, are they baked into the stocks already because we've certainly seen a big rise in the stocks for the past month or so, or is it yet another catalyst to stocks soon?"

Hintz: "It's another catalyst. We've seen the credit markets modestly improve, right? We've got liquidity now in the investment-grade industrials. That's, you know, it's a small part, but it's a step in the right direction. This also reduces the risk that you're going to have, the surprise losses. That means you're going to hang on to losses, you're not being forced to sell. All of these are improving credit."

Guy Adami: "I'm sort of with you on the mark-to-market thing, Brad. We go mark-to-model. Is there going to be a mark-to-model czar? Who at a firm in their right mind would like to take a job of overseeing the mark-to-models at a Citi or at a JP Morgan or at a Wells Fargo, for that matter?"

Hintz: "In the end, actually, that's the external auditor. You know, the external auditor doesn't have a lot of courage at this point, right? And we've seen the SEC come out, what was it, in March, in September of 2008 with letters to CFOs saying, 'You really don't have to mark to market quite as aggressively as you have.' They didn't give them a bright line saying here's a safe harbor. If the markets are totally disrupted, you can go to mark-to-model. Mark-to-model is actually the old way the street modeled their portfolios during illiquid periods. As long as you were using the model that you traded with every day. Not some other type model, but a model that you used for your trading decisions, and if the auditors were comfortable with that, that's what you would use. It was a reasonable way to do it. Now, the 157, the new approach, came in and was much, much more conservative. It said, if there are any trades, we have to look at the trades."

Karen Finerman: "Very quickly, Brad, do you think any chance that we see no change at all since there's so much pressure to change?"

Hintz: "There's pressure for change. Just as there are going to be regulatory changes, you're going to see some sort of a safer harbor coming out on this one. If they don't fix it this time, they'll fix it next time. Because they know that what they're doing is causing pro-cyclicality. They're causing companies to take losses and have to raise capital in difficult environments."

Melissa: "OK, thank you, Brad, thank you for you time. Appreciate it. OK guys on the desk, what names do you buy ahead of that April 2nd meeting. He says it's going to happen. It's going to happen."

Pete Najarian: "I think it's the same old names. Go ahead."

Karen: "You know, Bank of America, I like the preferreds, but I think the XLF if you don't want to make a specific, you know, if you just want to broaden your exposure."

Pete: "If you're looking for a little more bang for your buck out of that XLF because of its beaten-down area, even though it's had its run recently the FAS is another way to get involved in the financials without picking out an individual name."

Guy: "It could line up just as we trade down to that 741 line. The stars could line up and you get some positive news on April 1st, April 2nd and then that may be a chance to really look to that move on 900, so the stars might align on this one."

Pete: "Melissa, to Brad's point, they HAVE to do it this time. They can't say, well, we'll keep talking about it and we'll look for the next meeting. They have to do it this time or we have more issues in front of us and forget 740."

Melissa: "A lot of lobbying pressure in DC, that's for sure."

Too early for cheap buys?

DJ -366 (-2.6%)
NASDAQ -74 (-2.6%)
S&P 500 -39 (-2.5%)

AAPL 170.80 -2.70 (-1.9%)
Apple reports on Monday. My favorite, an A grade stock. If they can thump the estimates and raise guidance, AAPL becomes an A+ stock. Still trading above its 10-day SMA (168).

VMW 97.74 -3.81 (-3.75%)
VMware reports on Wednesday. May sell off on good or bad news because of the run from 50 since August. I'm late to this stock, but I understand the strength it has in its industry — its dominant stance. Currently an A- grade stock and it's trading below its 10-day SMA (101). Big run, decent pullback, hugely popular. That means it won't stay down long. Very tempting.

BIDU 314.75 -5.25 (-1.6%)
Baidu reports on Thursday. Google's upswing since yesterday's earnings report could (should?) have a mirror effect on Baidu, right? Why would it have a positive effect on earnings rather than today? (Maybe the selloff was just too strong and broad.) I'm split on that notion. Nevertheless, BIDU has a shrewd CEO in Robin Li, and I don't see him disappointing the street as long as he's got Big Red backing the Co up.

Baidu is trading below its 10-day SMA (320), which sounds preposterous considering this was at 161 on August 16. (The 50-day SMA is a bit more reasonable at 254.) Tempting here, also.

Looking back, I should've sold Blue Nile and China Digital TV when I had nice profits. I bought NILE at 80, it ran to 106, and now is back at 81. I bought STV at 29, 32 (and 51). It ran to 55. Now it's back to 39. Some positions are holds. Other positions are trades. These two should've been trades.

NILE is trading below its 10- and 50-day SMAs, but I hesitate to add more here. Even if I disagree with the downgrade (Citigroup) and even if I don't pay mind to the insider selling, the market is less than pleased. Can't fight the trend, can't add more here. I'm holding my little position.

STV is a long-term hold, but I would've profited by selling half my position high. The pullback for a recent IPO is almost destined. But I will hold on here.

Amazon is taking up space in the portfolio. I got in at 89, which is where it remains today. Though today's selloff hit tech and retail hard, AMZN lost just 10¢. The stock moves drastically only on earnings. The astronomical P/E keeps the stock on a leash for most of the quarter. I may get out of AMZN to raise a little more cash. OK, scratch that. I just realized that Amazon reports on Tuesday. Very interesting.

This isn't exactly a bargain sale here, but I've become severely underweight in two of my favorites, Crocs and Nintendo. Haven't sold a share. Just gotten heavy with other stocks. This pullback is an opportunity to fill up on CROX and NTDOY.PK, or perhaps to just wait until Monday. My Friday buys have been stellar in the past few months. Hmm...

Crocs is a relative bargain here at 65.99, well below its 10-day SMA (68). Q2 earnings were reported on August 14, and if Q3 comes out three months later, that would give us longs a Nov. 14 target. That's 26 days away. Too early to add more?

Nintendo (70.80) is milking the Wii and DS and everything it owns for all it can — but without emptying the whole sack. No question in my mind that the Co will deliberately ration the Wii as long as demand is huge. Remember, Nintendo was kicked to the curb, particularly by U.S. shareholders, for a few years there. The Co remembers this and isn't just tight with the product overseas, but is also overly discerning with its shares in Tokyo. (Investors there can only buy in bundles of 100 shares, and that comes out to about $41,000. Talk about an illiquid market in stock 7974.)

Today's pullback brings Nintendo's stateside pink sheets below the 10-day SMA (72), but I'll wait. The recent run above 70, all the way to 75, needs time to digest in this new box/trading range. I'm loathe to buy it high as I've done before.

Is it just me or was Maria Bartiromo a lot more hyper today on the trading floor? Luv Maria but when the market is on a major selloff, it's like watching a skittish cat trying to run across a busy freeway. When she's back at the desk, Maria is back to her calm self. Time to pick up some lululemon pants and hit the yoga workouts, Money Honey.

Oil hit $90/barrel today, then pulled back to 88.60. Guy Adami on Fast Money thinks the next $8-10 is downward. Dennis Gartman said crude should be at $75, and added that gold will fall if we are in a recession, as Julian Robertson said on CNBC today. If oil is due for a pullback, that will exacerbate the declines for PTR and CEO. I still want CEO, but I want it cheap. It won't get back to 92, but I will still be picky.

Fast Money loves China Digital TV 'pop'

The China Digital TV choo-choo train keeps chuggin' along. The gang at Fast Money had their say today.

Fast Money
Tuesday, Oct. 9, 2007
Pops & Drops

Dylan Ratigan: "China Digital TV, STV, popping again. 75% on its IPO, 41% the next day. It's off a lot."

Tim (the Ambassador): "Yeah, they're buying Google. Just kidding. I mean, how else can you explain this? The market cap's gone from $700 million to, to almost $3 billion. The key here again, folks, is that these guys are the key digital card player in the market in China. That's gonna be mandatory by 2010. They're the main play here."

Fast Money e-newsletter: Adami & yoga

The Fast Money e-newsletter is always interesting in one way or another. The show is one of the few that I regularly record, but the newsletter touches on off-camera stuff, too.

Guy Adami, for example, touts the benefits of yoga. Yes. When I saw the headline, I thought it was going to be a summary about lululemon (LULU). Instead, Adami — who has been deadly accurate about the market's fluctuations through the past few months — writes about his morning routine.

TRADING AND YOGA
In these volatile times on Wall Street, it is important to maintain your composure. That's why I find that nothing prepares me better for a busy day of trading than practicing yoga for an hour each morning. Yoga helps me find my center and clears my thoughts. When the market is up one minute and down the next, you can lose a lot of money by being too impetuous. You can't chase the tape; you need to think ahead of it. Of course, you should make adjustments to your portfolio here and there to reflect market realities, but your overall strategy or trading thesis should not be changing day to day. If it does, yoga may be the cure for you. Why? Because by practicing yoga, I get rid of my nervous energy. An hour of yoga in the morning will allow me to keep a level head for the rest of the day. Furthermore, yoga has improved my ability to focus intensely. Be it on a pose or on a trade, intense focus is the key to success.

Maybe Dylan Ratigan will get Adami to do a bit of yoga during the show. Wearing lululemon gear. With Erin Burnett and Melissa Lee doing the downward dog alongside him.

Bolling: You don't have to be a hero

From time to time, I like reading what pros say and write. In particular, guys like Jeff Macke and Eric Bolling. I don't favor their sectors — Macke specializes in retail, Bolling in oil and natural gas. However, they know the pulse of the market, especially in these ridiculously turbulent times.

Having signed up for Google Alerts of Fast Money regulars like Macke and Bolling, I got this in the e-mail. Here's what Bolling wrote on Friday.

Bolling on Market Volatility

A little known fact about me: Before this trading gig, I was a third baseman for three years in the Pirates’ minor league system. During my years on the diamond, I learned many lessons that I have taken with me to the trading floor of the NYMEX. The key to batting is not to try too hard. A batter must stay composed and keep his head on his shoulders. When you’re in a slump, resist the temptation to swing the bat with greater force. Instead, stay relaxed and focused on the ball. The same applies to trading; don’t trade harder - trade smarter. The market has been throwing some curve balls over the past three weeks. Only by remaining composed and waiting for a better pitch will you find success. In this market, perhaps the best play is defensive, rather than offensive. As I've said on Fast Money over and over again, YOU DO NOT HAVE TO BE A HERO. Don't rush into an overly aggressive position with the market down 300 points one day and up 200 points the next day. Instead, stay quick and nimble and be ready to trade another day, or play another inning.