Thursday, January 31, 2008

Top 25: #10 Nintendo

NTDOY.PK 61.75 +2.65 (+4.5%)
Nintendo trading just above its 200-day SMA. Good price here, but a best-case scenario is steady growth after a short-term dip (see Feb/March of 2007).

Top 25: #9 Research in Motion

RIMM 93.88 +0.09 (+0.1%)
50-day SMA: 103.45 | 100-day SMA: 105.66 | 200-day SMA: 84.40
RIMM is among the publicly skewered growth stocks that will undoubtedly be hammered again on any semblance of bad news in the economy and market. Though RIMM is cheap here, a bad jobs report tomorrow could bring shares down for a re-test of 80.

Top 25: #8 Apple

AAPL 135.36 +3.18 (+2.4%)
50-day SMA: 174.90 | 100-day SMA: 169.49 | 200-day SMA: 145.72
No catalyst in the near future. Apple may never soar again as it did pre- and post-iPhone. Increased competition in that sector has the stock buried below its 200-day SMA. Hard to see AAPL moving much higher after four straight up days.

Top 25: #7 Suntech Power

STP 54.65 +1.15 (+2.2%)
50-day SMA: 71.62 | 100-day SMA: 59.60 | 200-day SMA: 48.21
China's air pollution crisis will only help Suntech accelerate growth and earnings. Down from a high of 90, still a good bargain, though lower volume today isn't bullish.

Top 25: #6 First Solar

FSLR 181.77 -2.58 (-1.4%)
50-day SMA: 224.32 | 100-day SMA: 181.87 | 200-day SMA: 133.80
Like crude oil, alternative energy is a must and First Solar is the leader in the Western world. Fairly cheap here.

Top 25: #5 PetroChina

PTR 142.28 +0.96 (+0.7%)
50-day SMA: 175.40 | 100-day SMA: 188.35 | 200-day SMA: 161.76
Talk about pummeled to a pump. I am certain about very few things today. One of them is China's need for crude oil. This stock is wildly volatile, but a bargain here.

Top 25: #4 China Mobile

CHL 75.52 +1.60 (+2.2%)
50-day SMA: 84.96 | 100-day SMA: 85.17 | 200-day SMA: 68.81
China Mobile, like McDonald's, is here to stay. Just because we don't see it doesn't mean there aren't billions of customers in the Middle Kingdom. Relatively safe, still growing, and beaten-down cheap below its 100-day SMA.

Top 25: #3 McDonald's

MCD 53.58 +2.57 (+5.0%)
50-day SMA: 57.38 | 100-day SMA: 56.27 | 200-day SMA: 52.63
The stock was punished because of domestic numbers, but that's absurd because McDonald's is a global entity without challenge. MCD at 50 in the past week was a total steal. Now, at 53, it is still cheap, trading below its 50- and 100-day SMAs.

Top 25: #2 Google

GOOG 564.30 +16.03 (+2.9%)
50-day SMA: 655.79 | 100-day SMA: 637.46 | 200-day SMA: 571.34
The Big Cheap. Today's gain before the earnings report is misleading; after hours, sellers prevailed because Google "missed" analyst expectations. It is what it is, and GOOG traded at 526 the last time I checked. Sad. The Co is still destroying competition, and Adsense revenues are up 30%. However, at 525 (or lower tomorrow), shares will be cheap. I wouldn't touch any, though, for a few days as the sellers shake out and buyers re-enter. Similar to what happened in mid-July; took GOOG almost two months to start moving up again.

Top 25: #1 Potash

Time for a refreshing new look at the market, i.e. my favorite 25 stocks. Lord knows they've all been beaten to pulp and left for dead in an alley. I'll start with my new No. 1, Potash.

POT 140.80 +4.55 (+3.3%)
50-day SMA: 129.76
This is one of the few stocks that held up rather well through the tumult of the market. Meat is murder in the eyes of all vegans, but that hasn't stopped China and India's growing demand for it. Must raise crops ... must raise soybeans ... must soybeans/fertilizer to animal ... must eat animal. Too bad Potash isn't cheap anymore.

Monday, January 28, 2008

Mickey D tumbles

Now McDonald's is being shot down in a blitzkrieg. Why? Pete Najarian says it's about a flat December, but all other numbers are robust. MCD is tried, true and expanding successfully. Worth a real close watch this week once the selling dries up.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Hoku Scientific still stretching nicely

Hoku Scientific plans solar power plants

In its lifetime, the Campbell-Hoku system is estimated to produce enough electricity to power approximately 6,700 homes for one year and eliminate 38,161 tons of carbon dioxide while saving 120,000 barrels of oil over 25 years.

Oil dependence is painfully strong in the islands, but Hoku doesn't plan to reduce prices. A win for Hoku shareholders.

Friday, January 18, 2008

Pupule portfolio

A few more additions to the faux portfolio.

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
AAPL | in at 179.40 (22 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

AMZN | in at 84.26 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08

AMZN | in at 81.08 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/11/08
AMZN | in at 82.87 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/14/08
AMZN | in at 79.76 (50 shares) | 40% of position | 1/18/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

BIDU | in at 344.10 (12 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08



CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

CMG | in at 118.58 (34 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08



EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08



FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08

FLS | in at 90.38 (33 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08
FLS | in at 90.65 (44 shares) | 40% of position | 1/11/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

FMCN | in at 56.13 (71 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08


FSLR | in at 221.00 (5 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08
FSLR | in at 175.88 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/18/08

FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
FWLT | in at 142.90 (21 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08
FWLT | in at 141.58 (28 shares) 40% of position | 1/11/08

GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

GOOG | in at 653.20 (6 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08



GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
ISRG | out at 263.64 (21 shares) | net -467.45 (-7.8%)



LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
LULU | in at 34.00 (108 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08



MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

MSFT | in at 34.44 (116 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08



NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08

NTDOY.PK | in at 68.44 (29 shares) | 20% of position | 1/9/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 69.29 (43 shares) | 30% of position | 1/10/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 68.75 (58 shares) | 40% of position | 1/11/08

POT | in at 122.78 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/18/08

PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

RIMM | in at 98.55 (41 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

STP | in at 66.81 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08
STP | in at 70.22 (28 shares) | 20% of position | 1/14/08
STP | in at 56.96 (53 shares) | 30% of position | 1/18/08



VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

The portfolio was up 1.3% today, but overall down 9.5% so far. Ouch.

Top 25: Ins and Outs

A look at my Top 25 stocks.

1. AAPL 161.36 +0.47 (+0.3%) | 50-day SMA: 180.06 | 100-day SMA: 169.43 | 200-day SMA: 143.97
The bears say Apple will break down to 125. The bulls say Mac sales will trump all doomsayers with Tuesday's earnings report.
2. GOOG 600.25 -0.54 (-0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 671.70 | 100-day SMA: 633.95 | 200-day SMA: 567.63
This is so wrong on so many levels. Google at 600? Certainly cheap here, but the tsunami effect is still here.
3. RIMM 88.58 +1.55 (+1.8%) | 50-day SMA: 106.88 | 100-day SMA: 104.91 | 200-day SMA: 82.59
RIMM longs (myself included) have to admit the masochism is not healthy. Getting into this stock is not recommended if you want to keep your sanity. No matter what, the street has insisted on unloading RIMM for most of the past two months. Today's volume was barely more than yesterday's ... not exactly the reversal longs want to see.
4. NTDOY.PK
5. POT 122.78 +2.54 (+2.1%) | 50-day SMA: 126.99 | 100-day SMA: 115.10
Potash the company continues to benefit from global growth (re: India and China) and the byproduct, a growing demand for meat, which requires soy meal and grain feed. POT the stock is down about 30 from its high last week. A rare moment below the 50-day SMA.

6. CHL 77.39 +2.67 (+3.6%) | 50-day SMA: 86.57 | 100-day SMA: 84.31 | 200-day SMA: 67.58
China loves cellphones. Its the primary way its people get on the Internet. Increased volume on today's rise gives China Mobile longs hope again. Still 30% down from its high.
7. PTR 155.16 +3.10 (+2.0%) | 50-day SMA: 183.75 | 100-day SMA: 188.14 | 200-day SMA: 160.54
Amazing. PetroChina has been below its 200-day SMA for four sessions in a row. Crude oil is at $90/barrel today, but has the demand in China for energy changed? Of course not.
8. FSLR 175.88 +8.68 (+5.2%) | 50-day SMA: 226.88 | 100-day SMA: 175.73
Aug. 16 is the only other time in the past year that First Solar dipped below its 100-day SMA. Today's rise on increased volume is a bullish indicator, if only for the short term.
9. MCD 52.40 +0.42 (+0.8%) | 50-day SMA: 58.14 | 100-day SMA: 55.91 | 200-day SMA: 52.37
Preposterous decline, but most ships go down (and up) with the tide. A screaming bargain for the risk takers.
10. STP 56.96 +1.97 (+3.6%) | 50-day SMA: 73.25 | 100-day SMA: 58.20 | 200-day SMA: 47.54
Alternative energy in China is in its infancy and Suntech Power is the leader.

11. ISRG 262.07 +0.73 (+0.3%) | 50-day SMA: 303.31 | 100-day SMA: 278.01 | 200-day SMA: 216.30
Still not convinced that Intuitive Surgical can reach previous margins. Financially-strapped hospitals are crying for discounts.
12. CMG 121.96 +1.63 (+1.4%) | 50-day SMA: 133.19 | 100-day SMA: 126.02 | 200-day SMA: 104.81
Still a bargain here. CMG has shown relative strength, particularly for a U.S.-based restaurant.
13. BIDU 273.04 +8.05 (+3.0%) | 50-day SMA: 356.10 | 100-day SMA: 326.62 | 200-day SMA: 240.95
Baidu is cheap here, depending on your view of whether China's e-commerce future has anything to do with U.S. problems.
14. FWLT 129.94 +1.36 (+1.1%) | 50-day SMA: 149.05 | 100-day SMA: 141.85 | 200-day SMA: 119.47
Cheap here, no question. Does a recession affect infrastructure spending? And if so, how much? I think the effect is minimal.
15. FLS 81.18 +1.00 (+1.3%) | 50-day SMA: 92.94 | 100-day SMA: 84.84 | 200-day SMA: 76.44
Flowserve is close to what it was when I noticed it was lagging during the fall bull run. (Back then it was around 77.) Today's massive volume is a nice sign for longs. Recession or not, the world still needs pumps for its energy needs.

16. FMCN 47.82 +2.25 (+4.9%) | 50-day SMA: 55.32 | 100-day SMA: 54.23 | 200-day SMA: 48.08
Is Focus Media doing so badly that its stock deserved a 30% cut? No. FMCN is cheap here, and as China moves closer to the Beijing Olympics, advertising revenue could bump.
17. GS 187.21 -3.77 (-2.0%) | 50-day SMA: 211.02 | 100-day SMA: 211.54 | 200-day SMA: 211.53
Increased volume on today's Goldman selloff. Buried with the rest of the financials, unfortunately, GS may be heading to 160.
18. NKE 56.50 +0.52 (+0.9%) | 50-day SMA: 63.18 | 100-day SMA: 61.46 | 200-day SMA: 58.15
Extremely cheap here. Maybe the bears are right and Nike sales in the U.S. will fall off a cliff. But there's China and billions of feet to cover.
19. CEO 150.01 +2.62 (+1.8%) | 50-day SMA: 169.96 | 100-day SMA: 165.99 | 200-day SMA: 133.92
Like PTR, CNNOC is going to benefit from China's massive demand for oil. Unlike PTR, CNOOC drills off-shore. Both have the protection of Big Brother. Stock is cheap here, volume was up today.
20. VMW 81.27 +0.53 (+0.7%) | 50-day SMA: 86.23 | 100-day SMA: 88.72
VMware is backing volume, i.e. conviction, from bulls and bears alike. Relatively cheap here, but there's enough doubt to keep it pinned down for now. Still the leader, by far, in virtualization.

21. LULU 30.92 -1.40 (-4.3%) | 50-day SMA: 40.89 | 100-day SMA: 42.09
Strong earnings report last quarter. I have more faith that most that women 18-35 will continue to buy $100 yoga pants.
22. MSFT 33.01 -0.10 (-0.3%) | 50-day SMA: 34.39 | 100-day SMA: 32.43
Earnings up next week. I'm no Microsoft bull, but betting against Softee is questionable.
23. AMZN 79.76 -0.36 (-0.5%) | 50-day SMA: 86.84 | 100-day SMA: 87.90 | 200-day SMA: 77.55
No tax on Internet purchases. How does that hurt Amazon? It shouldn't. Stock is back at cheap value.
24. EBAY 28.33 +0.21 (+0.8%) | 50-day SMA: 32.24 | 100-day SMA: 34.69 | 200-day SMA: 34.01
My personal dissatisfaction with the eBay police aside (they let sellers rip people off), PayPal is still king. I just don't see the logic of taking the stock down in a recession. People get cheap prices at eBay, which should work in a down economy.
25. LFC 68.60 +3.30 (+5.1%) | 50-day SMA: 78.66 | 100-day SMA: 82.68 | 200-day SMA: 67.86
China Life Insurance up from its lows earlier in the week. Long term, life insurance will win big in the Middle Kingdom.

Fear is contagious

This week — this month — more than ever has been a lesson in the power of the external. All the charts, statistics and revenues in the world are great, sort of like measuring the tide and the frequency and size of waves on local shores. You believe what you see. But the recession worries, housing subprime crisis, breakdown in financial institutions, etc. are certainly earthquakes from beyond our vision. It's like an earthquake in Indonesia that can cause a tsunami to hit Hawaii or North America. And that's the simple lesson.

Apple has nothing to do with Countrywide Financial, let alone a quake on the other side of the ocean. But today AAPL trades at 160, 20% below its recent high, and there is no way to argue against a trading strategy along with (or without) a core, long-term position. At the end of December, AAPL traded at 200 and far above its simple moving averages. Clearly not a buy, but I was among those who didn't consider selling shares. The street sold off just about everything since the start of 2008, and Apple was caught in that tsunami.

It will be a long time before the confidence of the market is reestablished. Until then, there's no point in fighting the price action. Any movement up is paired with lowered volume (re: Apple, Google, RIMM, etc). There is no conviction from the bull side, and that's why it's impossible to go long-term with new positions right now.

Apple's earnings are out on Tuesday. The telescopes are focused. Fear of the tsunami prevails, but will that fear continue?

Monday, January 14, 2008

Pupule portfolio

More additions to the faux portfolio.

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
AAPL | in at 179.40 (22 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

AMZN | in at 84.26 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08

AMZN | in at 81.08 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/11/08
AMZN | in at 82.87 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/14/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

BIDU | in at 344.10 (12 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08



CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

CMG | in at 118.58 (34 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08



EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08



FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08

FLS | in at 90.38 (33 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08
FLS | in at 90.65 (44 shares) | 40% of position | 1/11/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

FMCN | in at 56.13 (71 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08


FSLR | in at 221.00 (5 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08

FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
FWLT | in at 142.90 (21 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08
FWLT | in at 141.58 (28 shares) 40% of position | 1/11/08

GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

GOOG | in at 653.20 (6 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08



GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
ISRG | out at 263.64 (21 shares) | net -467.45 (-7.8%)



LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
LULU | in at 34.00 (108 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08



MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

MSFT | in at 34.44 (116 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08



NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08

NTDOY.PK | in at 68.44 (29 shares) | 20% of position | 1/9/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 69.29 (43 shares) | 30% of position | 1/10/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 68.75 (58 shares) | 40% of position | 1/11/08



PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

RIMM | in at 98.55 (41 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

STP | in at 66.81 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08
STP | in at 70.22 (28 shares) | 20% of position | 1/14/08



VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

Top 25: Ins and Outs

Tonight's look at the Pupule Top 25 stocks. Though the market bounced and tech rose, volume in Apple, Google an RIMM were lower. Not a convincing tape.

1. AAPL 178.78 +6.09 (+3.5%) | 50-day SMA: 182.11 | 100-day SMA: 168.23
Up on lower volume. Not exactly bullish. MacWorld gives Apple plenty of juice, but unless the Fed energizes the market, APPL will sell off before MacWorld is done. Fed eases, AAPL could explode going into earnings on Jan. 22.
2. GOOG 653.82 +15.57 (+2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 680.24 | 100-day SMA: 629.93
Jon Najarian says Google will move more than Apple short term.
3. RIMM 96.35 +2.65 (+2.8%) | 50-day SMA: 109.92 | 100-day SMA: 104.60 | 200-day SMA: 81.73
Absolutely abused by the street.
4. NTDOY.PK 69.86 +1.11 (+1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 72.23 | 100-day SMA: 68.87
Not a bargain anymore, but definitely a decent price.
5. POT 150.12 +11.37 (+8.2%) | 50-day SMA: 126.29
Even on down days, Potash gained nicely. There's something explosive in that fertilzer.

6. CHL 84.21 -0.86 (-1.0%) | 50-day SMA: 88.05 | 100-day SMA: 83.77
Still a fair price.
7. PTR 173.00 -1.04 (-0.6%) | 50-day SMA: 190.48 | 100-day SMA: 187.59 | 200-day SMA: 159.72
Not ultra cheap, but well below its 100-day SMA. China's appetite for oil hasn't changed.
8. FSLR 224.76 +3.76 (+1.7% | 50-day SMA: 224.67
The window for a fair price on First Solar is slipping away. That was quick.
9. MCD 54.96 +0.64 (+1.2%) | 50-day SMA: 58.55 | 100-day SMA: 55.74 | 200-day SMA: 52.19
Yesterday's selloff on huge volume (more than 30 million shares) was filthy and disgusting, but it gave longs a chance to get more shares at a cheap price. Still cheap here.
10. STP 70.22 +3.41 (+5.1%) | 50-day SMA: 73.39 | 100-day SMA: 57.32
Alternative energy in China will be a prince (crude oil is king), and Suntech Power fits the throne nicely.

11. ISRG 265.69 +3.50 (+1.3%) | 50-day SMA: 307.62 | 100-day SMA: 275.93 | 2004. ISRG 265.69 +3.50 (+1.3%) | 50-day SMA: 307.62 | 100-day SMA: 213.54
Intuitive Surgical's growth could be tempered.
12. CMG 116.77 +0.07 (+0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 134.25 | 100-day SMA: 125.30 | 200-day SMA: 103.69
I prefer McDonald's as a fast-food play, but Chipotle has plenty of growth ahead.
13. BIDU 340.40 +11.15 (+3.4%) | 50-day SMA: 365.50 | 100-day SMA: 323.35
One of the few techs on my list that had increased volume today.
14. FWLT 141.17 -0.41 (-0.3%) | 50-day SMA: 149.94 } 100-day SMA: 141.09
Low volume for Foster Wheeler. Almost cheap here.
15. FLS 91.60 +0.95 (+1.0%) | 50-day SMA: 93.25 } 100-day SMA: 84.30
Miniscule volume today. Caution.

16. FMCN 55.44 +0.49 (+0.9%) | 50-day SMA: 56.59 | 100-day SMA: 53.88
Smallish volume, price barely decent.
17. GS 201.65 +2.91 (+1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 213.87 | 100-day SMA: 210.97 | 200-day SMA: 211.82
Goldman Sachs still cheap after rising for four days in a row. Declining volume, however, should slow the momentum soon.
18. NKE 60.73 +0.03 (+0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 63.72 | 100-day SMA: 61.34 | 200-day SMA: 58.07
Lower volume today. I like Nike long term.
19. CEO 178.25 -0.92 (-0.5%) | 50-day SMA: 173.38
More explosive than PetroChina, but too pricey here.
20. VMW 82.24 +4.71 (+6.1%) | 50-day SMA: 88.98 | 100-day SMA: 88.27
VMware's rally continues, but tiny volume is not promising.

21. LULU 34.48 +1.41 (+4.3%) | 50-day SMA: 41.97 | 100-day SMA: 42.16
Ridiculous selloff despite lululemon's robust report last quarter. I do not buy the notion that the 18-35 female demographic has suddenly stopped buying workout (yoga) apparel.
22. MSFT 34.39 +0.48 (+1.4%) | 50-day SMA: 34.66 | 100-day SMA: 32.23
Not cheap here.
23. AMZN 82.87 +1.79 (+2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 87.33 | 100-day SMA: 87.83 | 200-day SMA: 76.76
Amazon is cheap here. In Bezos we trust.
24. EBAY 29.23 -0.45 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 32.76 | 100-day SMA: 34.93 } 200-day SMA: 34.12
A seriously ugly chart. The selloff since 34 also occurred after the 50- and 200-day SMA crossed.
25. LFC 73.39 +0.18 (+0.3%) | 50-day SMA: 80.85 | 100-day SMA: 82.74 | 200-day SMA: 67.39
China Life Insurance looks cheap here. Today's gain on tiny volume shows a lack of conviction on both sides.

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Pupule portfolio

More additions to the faux portfolio.

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
AAPL | in at 179.40 (22 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

AMZN | in at 84.26 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08

AMZN | in at 81.08 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/11/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

BIDU | in at 344.10 (12 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08



CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

CMG | in at 118.58 (34 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08



EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08



FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08

FLS | in at 90.38 (33 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08
FLS | in at 90.65 (44 shares) | 40% of position | 1/11/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

FMCN | in at 56.13 (71 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08


FSLR | in at 221.00 (5 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08

FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
FWLT | in at 142.90 (21 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08
FWLT | in at 141.58 (28 shares) 40% of position | 1/11/08

GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

GOOG | in at 653.20 (6 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08



GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
ISRG | out at 263.64 (21 shares) | net -467.45 (-7.8%)



LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
LULU | in at 34.00 (108 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08



MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

MSFT | in at 34.44 (116 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08



NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08

NTDOY.PK | in at 68.44 (29 shares) | 20% of position | 1/9/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 69.29 (43 shares) | 30% of position | 1/10/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 68.75 (58 shares) | 40% of position | 1/11/08



PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

RIMM | in at 98.55 (41 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

STP | in at 66.81 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08



VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Top 25: Ins and Outs

Is anyone long Big Ben? I think Ben is a short-term trade. Nothing he says sticks for very long.

1. AAPL 178.02 -1.38 (-0.7%) | 50-day SMA: 182.62 | 100-day SMA: 167.22
Down on lower volume today. Still a decent price, MacWorld opens on Monday, but the next big fed report is on Tuesday. Looks like a short-term trade rather than a hold in this foggy weather.
2. GOOG 646.73 -6.47 (-1.0%) | 50-day SMA: 682.44 | 100-day SMA: 627.06
Pummeled, but no catalyst in the near future. Nice price, could get cheaper.
3. RIMM 100.66 +2.11 (2.1%) | 50-day SMA: 111.04 | 100-day SMA: 104.31 | 200-day SMA: 81.24
Up for a second day in a row, but on lower volume. Some ditzy news about being ready for China, but it's up to China Mobile to decide when to get the show going. No clear near-term catalyst.
4. ISRG 267.63 +3.99 (+1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 310.07 | 100-day SMA: 274.69 | 200-day SMA: 212.13
This puppy was severely sold off, so the bounce is not a shock. But I don't expect it to last, not when hospitals are saying they don't have the bucks anymore to buy DaVinci machines.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 135.28 -2.72 (-1.9%) | 50-day SMA: 125.34
Down on lower volume, but still not a nice price. Nowhere near cheap. Power of fertilizer.
7. CHL 88.94 +0.10 (+0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 88.75
The price was nice, but not anymore.
8. PTR 181.65 -0.47 (-0.2%) | 50-day SMA: 193.71 | 100-day SMA: 186.76 | 200-day SMA: 159.11
PetroChina is still cheap. Oil will fluctuate, but demand in China will not cease. They like cars. A lot.
9. FSLR 225.97 -8.28 (-3.5%) | 50-day SMA: 221.92 | 100-day SMA: 169.75
First Solar bends below the 50-day, but anything more than a small piece here is crazy.
10. MCD 58.17 +0.70 (+1.2%) | 50-day SMA: 58.68 | 100-day SMA: 55.59
Not cheap, but decently priced. They win all wars. Starbucks gives part-time employees medical coverage. Mickey D does not.

11. STP 71.42 -3.97 (-5.5%) | 50-day SMA: 73.01 | 100-day SMA: 56.65
Suntech Power is at a fair price here after two down days. Not cheap, but fair. Lighter volume today.
12. CMG 123.10 +4.52 (+3.8%) | 50-day SMA: 135.03 | 100-day SMA: 124.98 | 200-day SMA: 103.14
Even with today's rally, Chipotle is cheap. Not for long.
13. BIDU 339.54 -4.56 (-1.3%) | 50-day SMA: 367.18 | 100-day SMA: 320.51
Not cheap, but decent price. Baidu down eight of the last nine sessions. Inching in makes sense. Near-term floor is 300.
14. FWLT 147.56 +4.66 (+3.2%) | 50-day SMA: 150.16 | 100-day SMA: 140.20
That dip below the 100-day was very temporary, apparently. Foster Wheeler doesn't stay below its 100-day long at all.
15. FLS 90.62 +0.24 (+0.2%) | 50-day SMA: 92.73 | 100-day SMA: 83.84
Flowserve in treacherous waters here. A close below 88 would be falling through the ice. Next stop would be 82.
16. FMCN 55.24 -0.89 (-1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 56.84 | 100-day SMA: 53.54
Flat, flat, flat. Decent price, or good if you believe China will continue to keep inflation under control.
17. GS 196.91 +5.16 (+2.7%) | 50-day SMA: 215.63 | 100-day SMA: 210.44 | 200-day SMA: 211.88
Still cheap after two up days. Goldman Sachs rules over time. The Godfather of Wall Street.
18. NKE 62.54 +0.57 (+0.9%) | 50-day SMA: 63.90 | 100-day SMA: 61.20
Nike, McDonald's ... both holding steady now, but still at a decent price. Nike has competition, but is still king. Soon to be emperor of China's feet.
19. CEO 183.26 +2.73 (+1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 174.76
The train left last week. Five up days in the last six.
20. VMW 80.30 +0.41 (0.5%) | 50-day SMA: 90.69 | 100-day SMA: 87.91
Up slightly on low volume. Another dip into the low 70s is always possible.

21. LULU 34.72 +0.72 (+2.1%) | 50-day SMA: 42.68 | 100-day SMA: 42.15
Streak of seven down days is finally over on big volume. Nice place to start inching in.
22. MSFT 34.33 -0.11 (-0.3%) | 50-day SMA: 34.74 | 100-day SMA: 32.11
Not cheap, not expensive. Not exciting. What's the next catalyst? Don't see one.
23. AMZN 84.26 -0.96 (-1.1%) | 50-day SMA: 87.60 | 100-day SMA: 87.71 | 200-day SMA: 76.34
Three down sessions in a row, lower volume today.
24. EBAY 30.36 +0.49 (+1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 33.03 | 100-day SMA: 35.02 | 200-day SMA: 34.15
The selloff takes a break in eBay. Average volume, no catalyst ahead. Imagine if they spun off PayPal.
25. LFC 76.75 +0.35 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 81.94 | 100-day SMA: 82.45 | 200-day SMA: 67.08
China Life Insurance still cheap. Longs haven't been spooked off by the 600-million share news.

The Starbucks Response

This guy offers 10 potential responses that Starbucks can give to McDonald's in wake of this all-out war (from Mickey D).

Here's my suggestion to Starbucks: merge with Chipotle Mexican Grill. Ha!

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Fed set to cut soon?

Do you believe Doug Kass? 

Pupule portfolio

Is this commercial real estate issue a real problem or is CNBC just looking for more crap to scare the market with? I don't trust media in general, and for good reason. It's always about filling space in the headlines, filling a certain unwritten "quota" of bad news, day in and day out.

Screw the media. I want real answers, not stupidass gibberish about supposed commercial real estate issues. And if that's a problem, what in the hell does it have to do with Apple's bottom line?

Same deal with this problem with the Iranians and our Navy. Media jumps all over it like it's the catalyst for WWIII, but leave it to Ben Stein to set it straight: It was a few idiots on a speedboat trying to stir up crap. Ignoring them was the best response. Stein is right. That's no reason to get involved in yet another war. You wouldn't waste time with the schizophrenic fool sitting on a curb. Why waste time with a few in a speedboat? The media thinks that it has a responsibility to blow everything up to epic proportions. Bastards.

Anyway, this may have been the bulk of the bottom — today's early dip, that is. If not, so be it. Here's what I've added to the faux Pupule portfolio.

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
AAPL | in at 179.40 (22 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
BIDU | in at 344.10 (12 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08



CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
CMG | in at 118.58 (34 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
FLS | in at 90.38 (33 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
FMCN | in at 56.13 (71 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
FWLT | in at 142.90 (21 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08

GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
GOOG | in at 653.20 (6 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
ISRG | out at 263.64 (21 shares) | net -467.45 (-7.8%)

LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08


LULU | in at 34.00 (108 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08



MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08


MSFT | in at 34.44 (116 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 68.44 (29 shares) | 20% of position | 1/9/08

PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
RIMM | in at 98.55 (41 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

Top 25: Ins and Outs

Interesting day for bears and bulls. Is this a dead cat bounce? Is this the turning point?

1. AAPL 179.40 +8.15 (+4.7) | 50-day SMA: 182.76 | 100-day SMA: 166.66
Nice, increased volume on today's Apple rally. MacWorld is five days away.
2. GOOG 653.20 +21.52 (+3.4%) | 50-day SMA: 683.09 | 100-day SMA: 625.59
Nice volume here, too. Google actually traded below its 100-day SMA for a moment today.
3. RIMM 98.55 +2.11 (+2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 111.47 | 100-day SMA: 104.04 | 200-day SMA: 80.96
Long way to go for RIMM. Could not get over 122 after huge earnings and raised guidance. Today's volume was good, though.
4. ISRG 263.64 -8.09 (-3.0%) | 50-day SMA: 311.14 | 100-day SMA: 274.01 | 200-day SMA: 211.41
Hospitals can't afford the DaVinci system now? Looks like they want a discount and Intuitive Surgical is not really in position to say no.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 138.00 +0.09 (+0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 125.07
Fertilizer is in higher demand at a higher price globally than ... robotic surgery?
7. CHL 88.84 +4.45 (+5.2%) | 50-day SMA: 89.05 | 100-day SMA: 82.85 | 200-day SMA: 66.32
Possibly the best bargain that was available in the past week. Still relatively fair of a price.
8. PTR 182.12 +6.82 (+3.9%) | 50-day SMA: 195.16 | 100-day SMA: 186.24 | 200-day SMA: 158.75
Long crude oil? Short crude oil? The undeniable factor is China needs oil. Regardless.
9. FSLR 234.25 +3.75 (+1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 220.53
First Solar dipped below its 50-day SMA today (208). Otherwise, it was never cheap during the Nasdaq's 8-day selloff.
10. MCD 57.47 +0.39 (+0.7%) | 50-day SMA: 58.67 | 100-day SMA: 55.47
Is this the bottom for Mickey D? Will they crush Starbucks as Pete Najarian predicts?

11. STP 71.42 -3.68 (-4.9%) | 50-day SMA: 72.91 | 100-day SMA: 56.32
The market goes up, but Suntech falls below its 50-day SMA on major volume. At least it's heading toward a cheap price. Finally. Was cheaper earlier in the day at 65.76.
12. CMG 118.58 +0.71 (+0.6%) | 50-day SMA: 135.26 | 100-day SMA: 124.75 | 200-day SMA: 102.84
Still cheap, but will the street have confidence in consumer spending power in the face of a possible recession?
13. BIDU 344.10 -1.11 (-0.3%) | 50-day SMA: 367.70 | 100-day SMA: 318.88
Large volume, but basically flat. Baidu longs are happy though. Stock was down to 319.20 today before rallying.
14. FWLT 142.90 -0.59 (-0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 150.26 | 100-day SMA: 139.63
Foster Wheeler down for a fourth day in a row on significant volume. Intra-day low was 133.16.
15. FLS 90.38 -0.07 (-0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 92.48 | 100-day SMA: 83.59
Rising volume for four days in a row, all down days. Flowserve finished up from the intra-day low of 87.16.
16. FMCN 56.13 -0.08 (-0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 56.98 | 100-day SMA: 53.38
China stocks tended to be flat today, but mostly finished near their highs.
17. GS 191.75 +2.25 (+1.2%) | 50-day SMA: 216.57 | 100-day SMA: 210.22 | 200-day SMA: 211.94
Goldman got down to 183.70 today.
18. NKE 61.97 +0.14 (+0.2%) | 50-day SMA: 63.95 | 100-day SMA: 61.11
Nice volume, not much volatility in Nike. Steady.
19. CEO 180.63 +13.66 (+8.2%) | 50-day SMA: 175.35
Buying opportunity has come and gone. Huge volume, gap up ... spells trouble for shorts.
20. VMW 79.89 +5.39 (+7.2%) | 50-day SMA: 91.50 | 100-day SMA: 87.66
So-so volume on today's lift. Still cheap.

21. LULU 34.00 -2.93 (-7.9%) | 50-day SMA: 42.98 | 100-day SMA: 42.14 | 200-day SMA: n/a
Increasing volume in seven consecutive down days for lululemon.
22. MSFT 34.44 +0.99 (+2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 34.74 | 100-day SMA: 32.05
Not cheap. Can Mr. Softee hold its ground here?
23. AMZN 85.22 -2.66 (-3.0%) | 50-day SMA: 87.72 | 100-day SMA: 87.62 | 200-day SMA: 76.11
Amazon got down to 80.24 today. Strange price movement for a company that already said holiday sales were robust. Well off its recent high of 97.
24. EBAY 29.87 -0.14 )-0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 33.16 | 100-day SMA: 35.06 | 200-day SMA: 34.17
Four down sessions in a row. Extremely cheap.
25. LFC 76.40 +3.90 (+5.4%) | 50-day SMA: 82.43 | 100-day SMA: 82.25 | 200-day SMA: 66.91
The stock finally showed some life today, pun intended. Big volume, still cheap (below 100-day SMA).

Pupule portfolio

The market is beyond ridiculous now. Bear market? Or just a sharp correction? Whatever the case, here are more additions to the faux portfolio.
























AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

























BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

























CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07




























CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08


























CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08


























EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08


























FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08


























FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08


























FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08

























GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08


























GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

























ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08


























LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



























LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08




























MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08



























MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08




























NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08


























PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07





























RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08



























VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

Ins and Outs

Thanks to this Pupule portfolio (faux), I can take my mind off the dwindling value of my real portfolio. Here's goes a look at the Top 25 and where each stock stands relative to its simple moving averages.

Yesterday, 20 of the 25 were below their 50-day SMA. Today, all but two are below the 50-day. Scary and amazing.

1. AAPL 171.25 -6.39 (-3.6%) | 50-day SMA: 182.87 | 100-day SMA: 166.03
Apple will lead the rally.
2. GOOG 631.38 -17.57 (-2.7%) | 50-day SMA: 683.51 | 100-day SMA: 623.97
Do we see Google at 600? I thought it was long gone in the rear-view mirror.
3. RIMM 96.44 -3.39 (-3.4%) | 50-day SMA: 111.89 | 100-day SMA: 103.71 | 200-day SMA: 80.70
The way RIMM has been manipulated, I'm starting to wonder if the brokers and financials in general are totally pulling the carpet out from all us retail investors every chance they can. It started last year and seems to be a pattern of absolute craziness.
4. ISRG 271.73 -28.25 (-9.4%) | 50-day SMA: 312.45 | 100-day SMA: 273.27 | 200-day SMA: 210.71
Intuitive Surgical below its 100-day SMA? Now that's a shocker.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 137.91 -1.50 (-1.1%) | 50-day SMA: 124.64
Amazing. One of the few stocks that still isn't cheap yet.
7. CHL 84.39 -0.83 (-0.9%) | 50-day SMA: 89.29 | 100-day SMA: 82.47
China Mobile holding steady.
8. PTR 175.30 -1.85 (-1.0%) | 50-day SMA: 196.45 | 100-day SMA: 185.65 | 200-day SMA: 158.40
China and oil are married. No, they're joined at the hip. They have more money, they want their cars and they're going to drive them.
9. FSLR 230.50 -6.34 (-2.7%) | 50-day SMA: 218.95
Good night. First Solar is still not cheap. Holy crud.
10. MCD 57.08 -0.95 (-1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 58.66 | 100-day SMA: 55.37
The most successful restaurant chain in the world today. Can it hold support at 57?

11. STP 75.10 +0.14 (+0.2%) | 50-day SMA: 72.58
Nope. Not cheap. China solar play still pricey.
12. CMG 117.87 -6.11 (-4.9%) | 50-day SMA: 135.56 | 100-day SMA: 124.52 | 200-day SMA: 102.56
The most successfully growing restaurant chain in America. Too bad they don't have international exposure.
13. BIDU 345.21 +0.90 (+0.2%) | 50-day SMA: 367.88 | 100-day SMA: 317.12
Only China could produce a search engine that would dare challenge Google. Just the oddest possibility here that Baidu might actually win. Somehow. You know what I mean. It's China. They seriously want to win.
14. FWLT 143.49 -6.45 (-4.3%) | 50-day SMA: 150.46 | 100-day SMA: 139.09
Infrastructure rules. But don't buy here unless it's a small piece.
15. FLS 90.45 -0.05 (-0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 92.22 | 100-day SMA: 83.34
Another solid company that will triumph regardless of the economy.
16. FMCN 56.21 +0.07 (+0.12) | 50-day SMA: 57.00 | 100-day SMA: 53.18
China stocks mostly holding down the fort right now.
17. GS 189.50 -5.23 (-2.7%) | 50-day SMA: 217.45 | 100-day SMA: 210.00 | 200-day SMA: 212.03
The floor could be 160. These guys are the warlord emperors of financials. We will never know if and when they are actually struggling.
18. NKE 61.83 -0.28 (-0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 64.00 | 100-day SMA: 61.02
I wear these. Always have. Other shoes give my feet problems. But more than that, Nike will rule China. Their feet, at least. Nike doesn't like to lose. Ever.
19. CEO 166.97 -4.30 (-2.5%) | 50-day SMA: 175.69 | 100-day SMA: 161.25
Like PTR, CNOOC is holding its ground here.
20. VMW 74.50 +1.51 (+2.0%) | 50-day SMA: 92.14 | 100-day SMA: 87.43
Crappy market, but VMware rises. How?

21. LULU 36.93 -1.52 -3.9%) | 50-day SMA: 43.31 | 100-day SMA: 42.12
lululemon athletica had great earnings last quarter, but is the street really this bearish on their next earnings report?
22. MSFT 33.45 -1.16 (-3.3%) | 50-day SMA: 34.75 | 100-day SMA: 31.98
Not a big fan of Microsoft products, but the stock has quite a range.
23. AMZN 87.88 -0.94 (-1.0%) | 50-day SMA: 87.81 | 100-day SMA: 87.50
If the economy really is sliding, does that mean more people buy stuff online (no tax) at Amazon?
24. EBAY 30.01 -0.43 (-1.4%) | 50-day SMA: 33.29 | 100-day SMA: 35.10 | 200-day SMA: 34.19
Still waiting to see the rationale behind selling the leading online auction site in the face of a recession.
25. LFC 72.50 -1.30 (-1.7%) | 50-day SMA: 82.92 | 100-day SMA: 82.01 | 200-day SMA: 66.75
Like RIMM, China Life Insurance has fallen through previous support. Net key support at 68.

Monday, January 7, 2008

Bargains?

These are the stocks among my Top 25 that are trading below their 100-day simple moving averages.

Chipotle Mexican Grill

















eBay

















Goldman Sachs

















China Life Insurance

















lululemon athletica

















PetroChina

















Research in Motion

















VMware















Pupule portfolio

Twenty of my Top 25 stocks are now trading below their 50-day simple moving averages. That's a whopping percentage, especially compared to two weeks ago, when only eight were below the 50-day SMA. 

More additions to the faux portfolio.

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08


CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08


GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08



GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08



LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08



MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7.08


MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08



NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

Top 25: Ins and Outs

Wooooo ... first June Jones leaves my favorite football team (Hawaii), and then the market goes into a wall at 100 mph.

No way to pick a bottom, but for the faux portfolio, prices are appealing.

1. AAPL 177.64 -2.41 (-1.3%) | 50-day SMA: 183.10 | 100-day SMA: 165.52
Today's volume in the selloff was massive, and yet, MacWorld looms closer.
2. GOOG 649.25 -7.75 (-1.2%) | 50-day SMA: 684.25 | 100-day SMA: 622.63
Could test that 620 support again.
3. RIMM 99.83 -3.52 (-3.4%) | 50-day SMA: 112.34 | 100-day SMA: 103.41 | 200-day SMA: 80.45
No reason or rhyme to this stock. Until today, It hadn't been below it's 100-day SMA since early May at 45.
4. ISRG 299.98 -5.02 (-1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 313.61 | 100-day SMA: 272.50
Slightly increasing volume on today's ISRG selloff. Not a ton of sellers here.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 139.41 -3.24 (-2.3%) | 50-day SMA: 124.17
This has a long way to go before it's cheap.
7. CHL 85.22 +1.34 (+1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 89.58 | 100-day SMA: 82.14
One of the few stocks to climb today. Still a fair price here.
8. PTR 177.15 +1.15 (+0.6%) | 50-day SMA: 197.92 | 100-day SMA: 185.17 | 200-day SMA: 158.07
Nearly 100 down from its high.
9. FSLR 236.84 -8.74 (-3.5%) | 50-day SMA: 217.24
Like Potash, First Solar is nowhere near being cheap.
10. MCD 58.03 +0.98 (+1.7%) | 50-day SMA: 58.65 | 100-day SMA: 55.26
Recession-proof? Maybe. But today's announcement sends Mickey D into an all-out war against Starbucks.

11. STP 74.96 -6.88 (-8.4%) | 50-day SMA: 72.17
Huge drop today, but still not a bargain.
12. CMG 123.98 -3.03 (-2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 135.78 | 100-day SMA: 124.30 | 200-day SMA: 102.30
Maybe they should start selling lattes and cappucinos in the Chipotle Cafe.
13. BIDU 344.31 -16.69 (-4.6%) | 50-day SMA: 367.66 | 100-day SMA: 315.47
Six down days in a row, and today's volume was higher. Is the selloff done?
14. FWLT 149.94 -9.75 (-6.1%) | 50-day SMA: 150.57 | 100-day SMA: 138.61
Getting interesting here.
15. FLS 90.50 -2.70 (-2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 91.96 | 100-day SMA: 83.07
Also interesting here.
16. FMCN 56.14 +0.43 (+0.8) | 50-day SMA: 56.97 | 100-day SMA: 53.01
Flat day, average volume for Focus Media.
17. GS 194.73 -5.20 (-2.6%) | 50-day SMA: 218.19 | 100-day SMA: 209.75 | 200-day SMA: 212.14
Could we see GS at 160 again?
18. NKE 62.11 +0.37 (+0.6%) | 50-day SMA: 64.04 | 100-day SMA: 60.94
Tempting here. Nike's growth overseas, particularly in China, makes this compelling.
19. CEO 171.27 +0.77 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 176.21 | 100-day SMA: 160.59
Trading in tandem with PTR to some extent, leveling out here.
20. VMW 72.99 -7.50 (-9.3%) | 50-day SMA: 92.93 | 100-day SMA: 87.26
Support level here. Stay tuned.

21. LULU 38.45 -2.09 (-5.1%) | 50-day SMA: 43.60 | 100-day SMA: 42.08
Robust sales last quarter. Will yoga apparel revenues be hit?
22. MSFT 34.61 +0.23 (+0.67) | 50-day SMA: 34.72 | 100-day SMA: 31.93
Down from 36-plus, holding the fort here. Nice volume today.
23. AMZN 88.82 +0.03 (+0.03%) | 50-day SMA: 87.82
Not cheap here.
24. EBAY 30.44 -0.86 (-2.7%) | 50-day SMA: 33.40 | 100-day SMA: 35.14 | 200-day SMA: 34.19
Still questioning why an auction site would be punished if the economy goes into a recession.
25. LFC 73.80 +0.80 (+1.1%) | 50-day SMA: 83.46 | 100-day SMA: 81.84 | 200-day SMA: 66.59
The influx of 600 'Class A' shares in the coming week hasn't scared off longs.

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Pupule portfolio

Includes new additions to the faux portfolio

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

CEO | in $167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

CHL | in at $84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

EBAY | in at $32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

GS | in $214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

LFC | in $80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

PTR | in $181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

Pupule portfolio

Friday, Jan. 4 additions to the faux portfolio
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

Friday, January 4, 2008

Ins and Outs

Jon Najarian says the Fed must act, but even if the Fed were to slash rates, wouldn't they take their sweet ol' time as usual? That's why papertrading is no substitute for the real deal. With my Ins and Outs of the Top 25, it's easy to say, 'Yup, dive in on the cheap stocks today.' It's tempting only in real life. On paper, easily done. AAPL at 180? Deal. RIMM at 103? In.

Worst-case scenario: Fed refuses to act until its end-of-January meeting (if it acts) and the market crashes. Best-case scenario: Fed makes a bold move, earnings reports (which begin on Monday) are more bullish than expected. Market rises.

How bearish has the market become? Last week, only eight of my Top 25 were below their 50-day simple moving averages. yesterday, the number increased to 12. Today? Eighteen. Those of us in cash will reign.

1. AAPL 180.05 -14.88 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 183.26 | 100-day SMA: 164.98
Big money got out of the big growth stocks today. AAPL is below its 50-day SMA for the first time since mid-November. Volume was the biggest since that period, too. MacWorld is around the corner. Inch in.
2. GOOG 657.00 -28.33 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 684.78 | 100-day SMA: 621.23
Interesting price point here. Inch in is fine with an eye on a dip to the 100-day SMA (621). If GOOG falls through 621, it's a horror film in real life.
3. RIMM 103.35 -9.47 (-8.4%) | 50-day SMA: 112.82 | 100-day SMA: 103.10
Unlike AAPL and GOOG, volume in RIMM today wasn't as extreme. That doesn't give RIMM long any semblance of comfort. How can RIMM fall below its pre-earnings price? RIMM blitzed estimate and raised guidance. The patient will be rewarded. When the market recovers, RIMM will be among the rally leaders. Price is nice here to start inching in.
4. ISRG 305.00 -16.75 (-5.2%) | 50-day SMA: 313.95 | 100-day SMA: 271.47
Amazing. ISRG was so far above its moving averages just days ago, and now it's below its 50-day SMA. Inch in, though I think it may pull back to 275 if the Fed does nothing.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a

6. POT 142.65 -4.23 (-2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 123.57
Potash is almost immune to market turbulence and it's not the only fertilizer stock rocking the free world. Too pricey still.
7. CHL 83.88 -1.56 (-1.8%) | 50-day SMA: 89.83 | 100-day SMA: 81.82
Bears are in charge of this great stock. Four of the last six sessions have been down for China Mobile, and those four trading days had big volume compared to the up sessions. I'd continue to inch in here with an eye on 80 as a key support level.
8. PTR 176.00 +5.36 (+3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 199.40 | 100-day SMA: 184.71 | 200-day SMA: 157.72
PetroChina was due for a rally, and with crude oil hovering near $100/barrel, why not now? I started inching into PTR in the Pupule portfolio recently and will continue to do so at these levels. The world will always need oil. China needs oil. OK, maybe alternative energy becomes substantial within five years. That's plenty of time for PTR to run.
9. FSLR 245.58 -20.29 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 215.47 | 100-day SMA: 163.93
Finally, a gap down, and yet, First Solar is miles from any kind of a fair price. Wait.
10. MCD 57.05 -0.88 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 58.61 | 100-day SMA: 55.15
A pullback like this in McDonald's is absolutely stupid. Now 11% down from its recent high, MCD is still selling a ton of latte, a ton of snack wraps (kids love 'em) and basically stealing customers from Starbucks. (A Mickey D and Starbucks were built next to each other recently in Honolulu. Guess which one is always packed and which one is half-empty?) The "Dollar Menu" at McDonald's is BUILT for recessions. Certainly worth inching in here.

11. STP 81.84 -6.38 (-7.2%) | 50-day SMA: 71.64
Buy here? Fuggedaboudit. Today's pullback is a speck of dust compared to this insane run from 45. Wait.
12. CMG 127.01 -14.69 (-10.4%) | 50-day SMA: 135.77 | 100-day SMA: 124.02
Chipotle Mexican Grill is getting cheaper and cheaper. This is a nice price to inch in, but will consumers opt to buy fast, healthy Mexican food rather than the dollar menu at Mickey D's?
13. BIDU 361.00 -14.09 (-3.7%) | 50-day SMA: 367.50 | 100-day SMA: 313.93
After five down days in a row, Baidu is worth inching in here. Still easily capable of falling to support level at 300.
14. FWLT 159.69 -9.48 (-5.6%) | 50-day SMA: 150.46
Recession proof? Possibly. But this price is still too high.
15. FLS 93.20 -2.95 (-3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 91.71
Another stock that thrives in global growth, but pricey here. Wait.

16. FMCN 55.71 -3.27 (-5.5%) | 50-day SMA: 57.00 | 100-day SMA: 52.83
Down big on moderate volume, worth inching in here.
17. GS 199.93 -4.91 (-2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 218.79 | 100-day SMA: 209.50 | 200-day SMA: 212.21
Goldman Sachs is king and emperor of the financials, the Godfather of Greenbacks. And yet, the stock is on thin ice right here; 200 is a key support level. If GS falls through, next stop is 180, and then 160. Inching in is a good idea, but don't dive head first.
18. NKE 61.74 -0.97 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 64.06 | 100-day SMA: 60.86
Fair price, almost good. Six down days in a row, but I like the growing international exposure (China) and commitment.
19. CEO 170.50 +0.66 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 176.57 | 100-day SMA: 159.95
Like PetroChina, CNOOC Ltd. is a state-owned entity in the Middle Kingdom. I missed the boat on CEO twice: once at 91, later at 111. With the latter, the P/E was only 12. Then it ran to 215. Here, CEO is still a fair price, but I'd inch in only. The stock has run up with increasing volume for two days and could be due for a pullback.
20. VMW 80.49 -3.46 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 94.54 | 100-day SMA: 87.04
Dead money for a few weeks now unless you're a short. Nice price for a near-term trade, though. Inching in for the Pupule portfolio with an eye on support at 71.

21. LULU 40.54 -4.22 (-9.4%) | 50-day SMA: 43.95 | 100-day SMA: 42.03
Today's hellacious jobs report casts a bad omen for retailers. Pricey yoga pants ($100/pair) aren't a big priority if and when we head into a recession. But I do think that lululemon athletica's core customers are not affected by layoffs in the financial and homebuilding sectors. LULU's customers will continue to work out, and they will show off the results by purchasing lululemon pants. Women 18-35 will keep on keepin' on. They will keep spending. It's the vanity factor. It works well.
22. MSFT 34.38 -0.99 (-2.8%) | 50-day SMA: 34.65 | 100-day SMA: 31.86
The Halo effect is done. What drives Mister Softee from here? As Sgt. Schultz often said, "I see nothing!" Scaling in here for a near-term trade on the Pupule portfolio.
23. AMZN 88.79 -6.42 (-6.7%) | 50-day SMA: 87.82 | 100-day SMA: 87.19
Another stock, like RIMM, that will lead a market rally if the Fed cuts. Amazon bluntly told the world that unlike other struggling online retailers, its sales were quite fine, thank you. Price is better, but not quite good yet. Wait.
24. EBAY 31.30 -1.54 (-4.7%) | 50-day SMA: 33.51 | 100-day SMA: 35.19 | 200-day SMA: 34.20
If the country is heading for a recession, it will be the eBays of the world that will benefit. Still, the stock took a hit today. Inching in on the Pupule portfolio.
25. LFC 73.00 -1.64 (-2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 83.99 | 100-day SMA: 81.68 | 200-day SMA: 66.44
Does anyone really think life insurance won't work in China? This is a land, as I've mentioned before, where ancestor worship was once the rule. As the middle-agers accumulate wealth, they will put their hard-earned money into life insurance while the younger generation plays the stock market.

On the cusp: Taking a close look this weekend at Costco and Altria as additions to the Top 25.