News that Verizon will unveil something on Tuesday has both stocks on the move. AAPL closed up 2.39 to 336.12, but since the news has moved to 338.00 afterhours.
Verizon is not a cheap bill to receive, but I use the wireless service. That glitch last month was both shocking and disgusting, but overall, the service is solid. In this scenario, I'd still rather trade AAPL even at this lofty level. Verizon could pull a 'Gotcha!' on Tuesday and pull the rug out, then there'd be a lot of bagholders.
I'd rather hold a few shares of AAPL in that instance. I hemmed and hawed at 334 and 335. Not going in at 338. I still think AAPL goes to 352 sometime before or during earnings (January 18) before pulling back. I just want my shares cheaper.
Friday, January 7, 2011
On the Links
Never visited the site, but LinkedIn and this social-networking craze is starting to feel like the Internet pre-bubblicious days of the late 1990s. I have qualms about a site that needs money this badly, but someone's going to make a ton of money off this IPO.
Story here.
A piece by William D. Cohan (New York Times) about Goldman Sachs' overvaluation of Facebook here.
Story here.
A piece by William D. Cohan (New York Times) about Goldman Sachs' overvaluation of Facebook here.
Jamba needs a boost
Rick Aristotle Munarriz's piece on Jamba Juice here.
Hard for me to fathom that JMBA may need a buyer. Every store in Honolulu is packed whenever I'm there. Who would buy a franchise chain that barely makes a profit with costs that can fluctuate from season to season depending on weather? Then again, a new owner would get to drink all the free Jamba he or she wanted. For life.
On heavy volume, JMBA is down 2¢ to 2.36 with roughly an hour left in the session. It plunged to 2.30 at mid-day before rallying back.
Hard for me to fathom that JMBA may need a buyer. Every store in Honolulu is packed whenever I'm there. Who would buy a franchise chain that barely makes a profit with costs that can fluctuate from season to season depending on weather? Then again, a new owner would get to drink all the free Jamba he or she wanted. For life.
On heavy volume, JMBA is down 2¢ to 2.36 with roughly an hour left in the session. It plunged to 2.30 at mid-day before rallying back.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Jamba gets berry excited
Skimming through the vast horizon, I'm clearly from another planet. The market has reached the stratosphere, gone from rock bottom to amazing heights in the past half-year or so, and I was nowhere in the vicinity, as were millions of other jaded investors and traders.
No regrets. Maybe a little envy of those who held their shares of AAPL and CMR and F and C and BIDU and ... well, it's no use whining. But one company I was sure had to have taken off to supreme heights was Jamba Juice. Whether I was aware or not whether Bernanke was still "in charge" or Apple shares had reached 1,000, I knew as a customer that Jamba mania continued through the recession, at least in local stores.
Of course, Hawaii is barely a drop in the bucket. I shouldn't be surprised to see that JMBA, which was around 2.20 the last time I checked (last spring) hit an intraday high of 3.83 (April 27) in before completely dropping trou to 1.60 by late summer. In the middle of summer?
Did fruit costs explode? Maybe buying fruit smoothies were just too much of a luxury for most folks. I mean, it's cheaper (though less "pure") at McDonald's, right? I don't care enough to know the reason. I do know margins are negative, returns are negative (-32% return on equity), year-over-year growth sucks (-16%). The one plus is that there's no debt, but total cash is a measely $36 mil.
Harder to believe is that operating cash flow is barely $4 mil. OK, maybe I'm too harsh. Maybe it's a victory that stores are open and they're not bleeding cash. But it seems growth is done, kaput, pau. And institutions are holding on to 31% of the shares; 9.9% of the float is short.
At 2.37 (up more than 4% today before the close), JMBA announced today that sales at company-owned stores are up. The new numbers will be interesting to look at. For longtime shareholders, they deserve a lifetime pass on a wild ride known as the Jamba roller coaster.
Source: Yahoo Finance
No regrets. Maybe a little envy of those who held their shares of AAPL and CMR and F and C and BIDU and ... well, it's no use whining. But one company I was sure had to have taken off to supreme heights was Jamba Juice. Whether I was aware or not whether Bernanke was still "in charge" or Apple shares had reached 1,000, I knew as a customer that Jamba mania continued through the recession, at least in local stores.
Of course, Hawaii is barely a drop in the bucket. I shouldn't be surprised to see that JMBA, which was around 2.20 the last time I checked (last spring) hit an intraday high of 3.83 (April 27) in before completely dropping trou to 1.60 by late summer. In the middle of summer?
Did fruit costs explode? Maybe buying fruit smoothies were just too much of a luxury for most folks. I mean, it's cheaper (though less "pure") at McDonald's, right? I don't care enough to know the reason. I do know margins are negative, returns are negative (-32% return on equity), year-over-year growth sucks (-16%). The one plus is that there's no debt, but total cash is a measely $36 mil.
Harder to believe is that operating cash flow is barely $4 mil. OK, maybe I'm too harsh. Maybe it's a victory that stores are open and they're not bleeding cash. But it seems growth is done, kaput, pau. And institutions are holding on to 31% of the shares; 9.9% of the float is short.
At 2.37 (up more than 4% today before the close), JMBA announced today that sales at company-owned stores are up. The new numbers will be interesting to look at. For longtime shareholders, they deserve a lifetime pass on a wild ride known as the Jamba roller coaster.
Source: Yahoo Finance
No skin in, but AAPL is great entertainment
Fwiw ... no better than tea leaves or horriblescopes.
AAPL
Late Apr to late Sept (2010) [5 months] > ranged from 232 to 278
278 is 20% above 232
Breakout in late Sept, new high of 334 Jan. 5 [4 months]
20% above 278 is 336
NOTE
The April-Sept channel was followed by a breakout to 293 before a pullback to 278 — the new (very temporary) floor. 293 was an additional 5.4% from the previous ceiling.
An additional 5.4% from the current high of 334 would be 352. If the pattern holds, it will pull back from 352 to 334-336 or 327 (the recent ceiling).
With AAPL earnings out Jan. 18, the possibility of a continued surge to 352 is somewhat reasonable. The question is, does the selloff/profit-taking begin before the 18th? Normally, the selloff happens as the report is announced or very shortly thereafter, as we saw last year. That run from the 240s to the 260s afterhours last spring (or was it summer?) is still incredible to recall.
Then shares plummeted back to the 240s for some time.
Then shares plummeted back to the 240s for some time.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Happy New Year!
For those of you who have stayed bullish, it certainly is a happy new year. Congratulations to you.
For those of you who have been bearish in the second half of 2010, my condolences.
For the rest of us who were completely out of the market, I hope you've had as much joy and satisfaction as I have with family and friends. Sure, we didn't make money in the market, but we've got our health and peace of mind.
But starting today, I start following things again. The market seems bloated and I'm simply watching. What exactly? Everything. But all I really want to buy are shares of Apple. Cheap. Everything else is very nyeaahhh right now.
For those of you who have been bearish in the second half of 2010, my condolences.
For the rest of us who were completely out of the market, I hope you've had as much joy and satisfaction as I have with family and friends. Sure, we didn't make money in the market, but we've got our health and peace of mind.
But starting today, I start following things again. The market seems bloated and I'm simply watching. What exactly? Everything. But all I really want to buy are shares of Apple. Cheap. Everything else is very nyeaahhh right now.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Passing through, just passing through
Haven't spent much time at all following the market lately. Just enjoying a wonderful summer, even with vacation over and so much to do. But one of the best pieces I've read lately comes from Rick Aristotle Munarriz, who takes a closer look at Apple and all the scuttlebutt about its enormous cash balance.
Munarriz is generally repulsed by the idea of buybacks and one-time dividends and I agree with him. It's pathetic enough that shareholders — I'm not one of them — would not be satisfied with tripling their investments in AAPL over the past couple of years. But now they want more?
I'm glad Steve Jobs is holding down the fort and refusing to change anything. They've done mostly unprecedented work there. If it ain't broke ...
Munarriz is generally repulsed by the idea of buybacks and one-time dividends and I agree with him. It's pathetic enough that shareholders — I'm not one of them — would not be satisfied with tripling their investments in AAPL over the past couple of years. But now they want more?
I'm glad Steve Jobs is holding down the fort and refusing to change anything. They've done mostly unprecedented work there. If it ain't broke ...
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