Big screen bopper

Still enjoying my summer, though the heat and humidity in the islands can be suffocating at times. But it's wonderful to have peace of mind, away from this schizo market and all the manipulations.

IMAX caught my eye today, exceeding earnings expectations and moving up 8% in an otherwise down market. Inception, Toy Story 3, Shrek and Aftershock have boosted revenue, the company says. Whatever. IMAX goes up, IMAX goes down. Competition is around the corner and IMAX will struggle to maintain this kind of growth, just like Netflix. The easy money is history.

Still 100% cash and satisfied.

The Apple-Fear yin-yang big bang effect

Once again, AAPL and VXX are locked in an unholy death grip. Find beauty in that, if you will. Since Apple's delicious earnings report yesterday, its equilibrium balanced out for the first time in weeks, overcoming all those vile rumors of iPhone 4 recalls by hedge pimps. 

Shares rallied yesterday and opened today at 265. Pretty forking amazing considering AAPL was down to 240 just one day ago. If you believe the hedge predators aren't at work on both ends of that deal, you may as well stay out of harm's way and watch from the bleachers, Section AA, Seat 14. I'll gladly sit in Seat 13 since I do not believe in luck, but understand that there is human nature — manipulation, lies and deception — operating quite well in this beast of a market. 

Of course, the hedge snipers then took their profits, banking 20-25 bucks a share in a 24-hour span. AAPL dropped to 258 just one hour into today's session and held there. Things were clearing up as expected until Uncle Ben's pronouncement at 2 pm Eastern. That sent a meandering market stumbling down the slopes. AAPL is now trading at 254.85, slightly about its intraday low, but still up 1.5%.

VXX, which tumbled recent days, spent much of today below 25. In recent months, any price below 25 has been a huge buying opportunity. Sure enough, Uncle Ben's pronouncement roughly 80 minutes ago sent VXX rocketing to 25.99. It is now trading at 25.76. 

The yin-yang has resumed for AAPL and VXX. Until Uncle Ben clarifies his statement — tones it down — the market will be refueled by this uncertainty and fear. Longs are wise to hedge their shares of Apple with a sprinkling of VXX. Doesn't take much to provide adequate protection.


Note: Barclays opened a new ETF today to counter VXX. The new issue, XXV, may as well play as yin to VXX's yang. Worth watching. 

I remain fully in cash.

Apple smash

Yep, is anyone really surprised? Apple smoked earnings expectations after the bell as profits increased by 71%. Even with every bullish estimate about the iPad and iPhone and iEverything, Apple knocked the ball out of a cavernous ballpark.

As expected, hedge funds had beaten down AAPL shares for the past week or so, pontificating the horror of the iPhone's antenna problems like Inquisitors at a witch-less, fiery stake. It was only a few weeks ago that shares were nearing 280 again, but even this morning, AAPL was taken to the woodshed. Shares were down to 240 in a weak broad market.

AAPL closed at 251, then ripped to 258 in afterhours trading. I'm still in summer vacation mode and stayed out of the market (again). The time to re-etner AAPL was last week, today, any time below 250. I chose to remain neutral and fully in cash, acting like the Switzerland of tiny retail traders. If global economies can cut the market a break (finally), maybe AAPL is poised to launch its way to 300-plus. In that case, it's not too late for find a suitable entry point.

Call it the Apple slingshot or whatever you like. It happens. Last quarter, the blowout numbers were preposterously, deliciously great, better than Barry Bonds on HGH cream. Shares went up, up, up like a video game on demo mode, then went down, down, down as short-termers reaped their massive profits.

This is the first full quarter banked on iPad sales, and with Mac sales hitting the roof now, there is plenty of reason to believe 250 will become new support.

I won't be chasing here at 258, though. I'll wait until the hedge pimps unload their shares.

Well, finally

It took Apple several days to come up with a solution, but they finally did it today. Free cases will correct the problem with the iPhone 4 antenna. Had Apple continued to dilly-dally on this issue, shares probably would've caved in like the rest of the market today, which is down almost 3% on negative consumer data. AAPL is down just 0.5% to 250.17.

This should end any and all rumors about an iPhone recall, which were drummed up by those sneaky hedge fund sharks. They got their shares as low as 243, so they'll be dancing up a storm this weekend. AAPL reports on July 20, and barring global catastrophe, shares will be higher than 243. Just a wild guess.

Not owning an iPhone, I rely on Mr. MG, who is light years ahead of me when it comes to tech toys. Mr. MG's take?

1. The antenna problem is severely exaggerated. He loves the new iPhone and has no issues with it. Holding it a certain way is just common sense, he adds.

2. If/when Apple adds Verizon as a provider, Mr. MG will stick with his AT&T plan. Is he insane? No.

"When you add 20 million people to the 80 million already using Verizon, they're bringing their iPads and iPhones. They're going to clog things up at Verizon, using up major bandwidth. Then AT&T's lines will be a lot better."

In his usual, contrary way, Mr. MG is right, or will be, it seems.

As for that Steve Jobs guy, he says the rate of refunds to unsatisfied iPhone 4 buyers is just 1.7%, or less than a third the rate of the iPhone 3. He also adds that the iPhone 4 does drop more calls, according to new data. The increase is less than 1 per 100 calls.

Jumping the shark?

Really, can the market take root at this level? Is this rally based on artificial "beats" of expectations, or was the recent downturn a big, overblown, overly pessimistic glitch?

What about Apple and its pendulum swings? The bears have attacked, or at least the hedgies have. They do their job, talking shit and yodeling their latest tune about Apple's doom. But when earnings are released in one week, they'll have collected their cheap (sub-250) shares long beforehand, and they shall bank profits. Much profits.

Ultra bulls like Jason Schwarz are still in pedal-to-the-floor mode. Sure, iPhone 4 is selling like nothing else before ... but what if there is a recall? I wouldn't expect Schwarz to hand out refunds to everyone who bought his propaganda, even though I'm generally on his side.

The market is moving up on paltry volume and manipulated earnings scenarios. AAPL can't get past 279 with all the question marks about its biggest product, and there's no new product coming for several months (Verizon iPhone), which is basically an eternity in the market.

I'm staying out and enjoying the summer. Enter at your own risk.

Midsummer's nightmare?

The past week has been heavenly away from the market. Nothing but sunshine and sweet dreams, enjoying the warmth of the islands. But checking this morning's open has been odd, to say the least, with the broader market up and AAPL way, way down.

The possibility (probability?) of an iPhone 4 recall has AAPL down 3.3% to 248.73 while the Dow Jones is up more than 100 points. Where will AAPL go today? The recent low was 243, and before that, 242. If Apple doesn't handle this problem with the iPhone antenna today, shares could easily plummet to a new (recent) low.

That would be awful for AAPL longs, but if the company bounces back like I expect it to, any entry point below 240 would be a nice start for those of us who have stayed away from trading for weeks and months.

On deck: Solars

OK, natty gassers got knocked in the head and fell out of the ring recently despite Obama's pronouncement that the sector is a key part of the clean energy campaign.

Now he's proclaiming solars to be sunny-side up. We'll see how long that lasts. Doesn't hurt that his words are backed by action: Fed loans to a couple of small solar companies. I'm not dabbling in pennies, but it might be the start of a short-term run for solar plays.