Monday, June 11, 2012

No wind behind Spanish sails (updated)

7:41 am (Hawaii) The Spanish bailout had Dow futures +140 at one point last night. My guess was that AAPL would hit 590 today. So I got up a little while ago, turned on the TV to see the Dow down 30 points. Stunning. No +100 or +200 day?

AAPL nearly hit 590, hitting 588.50 intraday, but is now back at 581+, barely positive even though its annual developers conference has begun. (They've released new and improved MacAir.) The bailout lasted for the blink of an eye. FAZ, which gapped down nearly a dollar to 25.00 at the open, is now at 26.56. I'm still all cash and probably will leave this mess alone. But it's telling how any bailout is having almost no effect on the overall market.

Update 10:16 am Took a shot at FAZ at 26.92, ran to 27.04 and fell. Got out at 26.80 for a teeny loss. Got back in at 27.09. (Missed a buy at 26.93 on the way back up.) Sold at 27.34 before the closing bell. Net positive for the day, basically break even. Had I held from 26.92, would've been a small, but decent paper profit. The after-hours puppeteers have FAZ at 27.39.

Almost impossible to hold anything overnight unless you have a major cushion, like say AAPL since 95. But even AAPL took a couple of roundhouse blasts to the face, falling to 571+ before the bell after being up nicely early in the day. Dow -142 (-1.1%), Nas -48 (-1.7%), S&P -16 (-1.3%). Surely another bailout coming this week, likely for Italy, which means another gap higher for the indices. I'd rather wait for the pop and fade that. Or just watch from the top row with my binoculars.

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