Thursday, April 26, 2012

Discount hunting (updated 10:58 am HST)

I want my price. Will these pull back just enough?

(Closing price to premarket high Fibonacci levels)
AAPL 595 (unlikely)
CRUS 24.45 (blowout earnings report yesterday after the bell)
FAZ 21.64 (possible)

FAZ trades on such light volume premarket. It's at 21.74 right now and could easily swing down to 21.64. It's up, I believe, on Europe weakness (as usual). I don't see AAPL dipping below 600. Jobless numbers were weak and barely affected the market, didn't harm AAPL one bit.

DGP and AGQ are green this morning, but not going there. Not today. Other "Apple tree" plays like BRCM, QCOM, SWKS are interesting. Keeping an eye on those.

Update 3:35 am (Hawaii) Holey moley, what a wacky, whacked OUT open. AAPL zoomed to 614+ two minutes before the bell, then fell to 611 after the open and below. FAZ sank all the way to 21.60 and has dropped below 21.50. It's cheap as I wanted, but I'm never entering something that sells off that harshly (re: ugly candles on the chart). There's something going on and I don't want to tread in that swamp. (Now 21.39!)

Indices are flat, slightly green. But really, what are FAS and the finnies doing afloat when Europe is so fucked? Meanwhile, CRUS is exploding, now 26.09, parabolic in these first several minutes. Will not chase. Waiting for a dip.

New fib # in CRUS is 25.07. Patience required.

Update 3:46 am CRUS finally dipping from its 12+% high this morning. Did a little homework and Cirrus has a trailing P/E of 10, forward P/E of 11. Discount to the max. This is almost too good to be true, the need for Cirrus' parts in Apple iPads. Add in these factors: Float of only 64 million shares and short interest of more than 10 mil. Explains the big bounce today.

Update 9:35 am Stayed up long as I could before getting some sleep the past few hours. CRUS almost came down to the 35.30s level (Fib retrace), but not quite. It's now near the day's high at 27.32, up more than 18%. The short covering hasn't ended, I guess. Incredible. But I won't chase. 

ZAGG, which announces earnings in one week, is at 12.05 (+5%). That's more interesting as a chance to ride momentum, but I don't want to chase. AAPL sank to 602+ but rallied to 610 (break even for the day). Then it slid to 607-608 in the last few minutes. 

The indices are all green (+0.7 to 0.9%) with 20+ minutes left in the session. Market is totally setting Europe issues aside, even ignoring today's lack of earnings beats. It's an iPad hysteria society from the US to Beijing. My job is simply to buy low and sell high, like the janitor at a high class party for rich, drunk frat boys and sorority girls, just picking up expensive jewelry that's fallen to the floor. 

Update 10:15 am Speaking of discounts, SBUX has cratered in after-hour trading after beating estimates by a single penny. A lot of disappointment on Twitter, but apparently earnings were nowhere near consensus estimates. I know it's tempting to sit in a Starbucks with the Apple lapptop on, sipping a favorite concoction feeling like AAPL and SBUX are the fricking bomb.

But unlike AAPL, SBUX did not destroy any estimate whatsoever. It went from an intraday high above 61 to 57+ after the news. Now at 58.10. This is one of those situations that guru StockGuy22 might pouce on. He's great at recognizing an oversold or overbought situation and profiting. But I don't know if he likes this. I spend way too much money at Starbucks. Though they're usually busy and crowded — the one in Mililani was packed at 10 pm yesterday — a 1¢ beat means they're no AAPL.

Update 10:30 am Now it's DECK that disappoints the bulls. Seems to be one of those late-in-the-week earnings are the Debbie Downer stocks, while the early-in-week earnings (AAPL, et al) were the gainers.

But as I type that, AMZN has beaten estimates solidly and is trading at 200, up from 195. Zooming higher. Now 204, 205. Yowza. $0.28 vs. $0.07. Wipeout.

Update 10:34 am SWKS (Apple play) is also up big after hours, now 27.02 after closing at 25.54. Just don't know enough about this company to step in.

Update 10:58 am That was a bit childish. I missed AMZN on the news at 200, 205, 210, 213. Got in at 220.50 and sold back right below 220, spooked out. But it's holding above 220. Major, major short covering. It'll be tempting to re-enter before afterhours trading ends for a probable bounce in the morning.

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