Wednesday, June 15, 2011

This brawl ain't over

12:00 pm (Hawaii) 
Yesterday's moves were almost entirely on sharply lower volume. Today?

AGQ: Tue 1.7 million shares, Wed 1.6 mil
DGP: Tue 688k, Wed 997k
EDZ: Tue 2.3 mil, Wed 2.3 mil
FAZ: Tue 13.0 mil, Wed 13.3 mil
GLD: Tue 10.9 mil, Wed 13.3 mil
GPL: Tue 2.1 mil, Wed 3.3 mil
SCO: Tue 1.4 mil, Wed 2.3 mil
SLV: Tue 30 mil, Wed 40 mil

And so on. I'm not a fan of SLV or GPL (due for a pullback after a massive run). But AGQ doesn't lie. It was up on almost even volume. Gold plays, even GLD, up on significant increased volume.

FAZ is perplexing at times, but it's neither bearish or bullish after today's 6% gain. I'm tempted to open a small position but I'm leaning toward waiting overnight. Same with SCO, though for different reasons. SCO and UCO are just wickedly flip-floppy. Obama wanted lower gas prices and he's getting it. But crude oil could bounce back on any craziness in the ME. Depends on how you feel about the presence of US Navy in the region; does it quell resistance and lead to US takeover of Iraqi/etc oil fields? Or does it lead to conflict?

Here are the biggest losers off my Metals/etc list:

UCO 43.25, -7.4%, Tue 2.5 mil, Wed 3.9 mil
FAS 22.54, -6.6%, Tue 23.9 mil, Wed 27.5 mil
CU 38.58, -4.9%, Tue 75k, Wed 4.9 mil
COPX 17.48, -3.8%, Tue 46k, Wed 236k
AG 16.88, -2.6%, Tue 1.1 mil, Wed 1.1 mil

Miners make up a big chunk of today's losers. But note how copper got destroyed (CU, COPX). Is this a blow-off top? Or is all this exiting volume an indication that the market will be dead money for some time. I think it's the latter. Plenty of people went on vacation, and a lot of the leftover traders got out today. AAPL at 325-326 ... that's dead money for awhile. 

This is looking like a knock-down, drag-out alley fight that could go on for days or weeks. Months maybe. But the scent of positive economic numbers will give us a quick dead-cat bounce opportunity here and there.

Content to sit in mostly cash and let it all shake out. Acquire more physical metal bit by bit.

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