a. disheartening, or
b. encouraging
I write this because a little-known Co called Northwest Biotherapeutics became the first to gain approval for a cancer vaccine today. Northwest Biotheraputics (NWBO.OB) announced early this morning that its Phase 1 (yes, that is not a typo) treatment for brain cancer has been approved for use in Q3 in Switzerland.
How is it that a Phase I treatment is already going to market in Europe, while Dendreon's Phase 3 Provenge sits idly with prostate-cancer patients waiting month after month, year after year?
Can it be that Northwest Biotheraputics simply has more finesse and maneuverability? Can it possibly be that Dendreon couldn't find a partner if it were the only boy at an all-girls school dance?
In other words, what the frick is going on here?
Northwest Biotherapeutics had a market cap of $29 million before today's session opened. (The Co is so small, Google Finance doesn't have a summary or quote price, though Yahoo has one.) After trading around $2 in recent days, the PPS spiked up at the open before bottoming around $2.50.
From that point on, NWBO.OB rocketed and finished at $7.33, a gain of 249%. Pink-sheet stocks don't trade in after hours, but there is almost absolute certainty that the stock will continue to climb.
European investors will get word of this news when the sun rises there. Media will also pick up the story. They'll learn that Northwest Bio not only has a treatment ready for market this quarter, but also has a treatment in the pipeline for other cancers. The tiny Co from Bothell, Wash. could trounce the bigger boys in Seattle. With all its eggs in one basket — prostate-cancer treatment Provenge — Dendreon could soon be left in the dust.
Full enrollment for Provenge Phase 3 trial 9902B may not be completed until next year, and the FDA clearly has its scopes set on shooting down Dendreon even if interim results are positive. Sure, the FDA is corrupt, but the game still plays on. The clock stops for no one.
Still, NWBO.OB is a risky stock to delve into. With a float of only 4.17 million shares, it's possible the continued rise in the PPS would make Dendreon's zany ride in March and April feel like slow motion. As quickly as the price goes up, however, it can come down. There's definitely risk in trading a stock like NWBO, but the good news is real.
For the Dendreons of the world, stockholders can only ponder and wonder, what the hell? What is it that Northwest Bio CEO Alton Boynton has that Dendreon's top brass does not? Before I leave you with a forecast of more doom and gloom, however, let's sit on the sunny side of the street. Maybe this will encourage CEO Mitchell Gold to pursue Europe with more vigor. If he has, as rumored, already turned down opportunities there in recent weeks, Northwest Bio's Great Leap Forward could prove to be a catalyst.
In other words, Dendreon's Board of Directors might pull their heads out of the sand and light a fire under Gold's okole. If a $29 million Co can do it, what's stopping Dendreon and its well-heeled (re: new slate of options) executives?
Gloom for longs? Yes. But the pressure is mounting. Good pressure.
Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is long DNDN and wishes he had been long NWBO.OB.
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