Friday forkway

3:15 am (Hawaii). Up. Down. Left. Right. Spend. Hoard.

America is at an economic crossroads today. Depending on who you believe, we are on the brink of prosperity (again). So says Alan Greenspan, per CNBC this morning. "Momentum" is with the improving U.S. economy, he says. Then you have precious metal bugs, some who are heavily invested in gold, silver, ammunition and years worth of canned food, who believe the U.S. dollar is doomed.

All I care about is making a smart trade. One at a time. I've missed the ride up with AAPL despite my bullishness about the stock and company. With 20 minutes until the non-farm payrolls report, AAPL is trading a buck higher in premarket at 360+. It was a couple of weeks ago, when Steve Jobs was spotted at the doctor's office, when I got out at this price. I knew the public would overreact. "He's at the doctor? OMG!" Well, shares dipped much lower from there as hedge funds took profits. Now things are so much better, a catalyst is in play and a new trading range is being formed.

Premarket, 60% of my watch list is green, 22% red, 18% flat.

NGD +6.4%, UCO +2%, EXK +1.7%, PAAS 1.4%, USO +1.1%, FCX +1%, SLW +0.9%, SLV +0.8%

TVIX -7.5%, CLNE -1%, GMCR -0.9%, CSTR -0.8%, OPEN -0.7%, LVS -0.6%, VZ -0.4%, QID -0.3%

Update, 3:41 am (Hawaii). Non-farms payroll report was ho-hum. In line, according to CNBC.

AAPL has retraced more than half of its premarket gain, now 360.33. I don't feel confident about entering here, however. Wait-and-see mode.

Update, 3:50 am (Hawaii). Watch list still mostly green: 51% positive, 33% neg, 16% neutral. Crude oil futures are above 103. Is there a surer bet out there? Maybe AAPL. The assurance from Libya's rebel leader that they will fight to the death probably put the spike in today's price.

NGD +2.4%, UCO +2.3%, USO +1.5%, PAAS +1.4%, EXK +1.2%, SLW +0.9%, SLV +0.8%, LULU +0.7%, FCX +0.6%, APC +0.5%

GS -1.3%, C -1.1%, GMCR -0.9%, CSTR -0.8%, OPEN -0.7%, TVIX -0.6%

Update, 3:59 am (Hawaii). Divergence in gold and silver. While gold, Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq futures have eroded in the past hour, silver headed higher. Weirdness.

Update, 4:02 am (Hawaii). Watch list bullishness declining still. 47% green, 35% red, 18% flat. 

Update, 4:22 am (Hawaii). Crude oil is a tempting play (again), but it's important to remember that many of the oil crises of years past were stopped in their tracks by the presence of the US armed forces. Total Investor noted this yesterday in a thorough examination of crude prices before and after American intervention. UCO dipped to about 54.50, close to the 50% retracement of today's premarket gain, but has bounced and is now back up to 54.80. Considerable as a daytrade. but probably too late now.


Update, 5:16 am (Hawaii). Not sure who the gold analyst/bull was, but he showed up on CNBC 30 or 45 minutes ago and noted that Mark Haynes had been negative on gold when he was on the show several months ago. Haynes was pissed, but his body language said it all: it was the truth.

Silver futures chart online is behind most other charts by 15 minutes. This divergence began as silver hit $35. Not sure why, but anything is possible. Gold was fresh and live, but not silver. SLW cracked 45 for the first time, making me regret selling at 43.10 on Wednesday. EXK, PAAS, SLV also doing extremely well.

NGD, UCO, and now TVIX atop my list. So is NFLX, which had been beaten down recently. Not touching that, but the metal plays and UCO continue to appeal to me.

50% retracement levels (on today's gains): SLW 44.37, UCO 54.44. SLW actually dipped to retrace level at 44.36, but I froze up. On cue, SLW ran up immediately back toward 45. My loss.

Hi Ho Silver!

Update, 6:02 am (Hawaii). Most mornings, I'd be in bed by now, peacefully asleep. This time, even without Red Bull, I'm wide awake. The precious metals, silver in particular, are screaming out loud. It's an ecstatic sound. I'm not in, no skin in, all cash. But it's an amazing move up for silver. It makes me remember that though the masses (like me) are interested now, the huge move in the past year probably means silver is nearing a top at some point. Could be next week. Maybe next month or next year. But irrational exuberance is nearing.

EXK exploded above 9 to an HOD of 9.22, now at 9.10. PAAS +3.1%. SLV +2.8%. SLW +2.2%, well off its HOD of 45.13, now 44.68. I want a position at 44.37 (50% retracement of today's gain).

In all, my watch list is 56% green, 41% red. Markets are generally slightly red. AAPL is back in the green, just barely, at 359.59. Needed a breather after that nice move the past couple of days.

UCO still appealing, though I wouldn't want to hold over the weekend if naval ships from around the world converge on Libya. But who knows? Maybe Quadaffi blows up every oil field out of spite.

Update 3:35 pm (Hawaii). Selloff. Upside for precious metals, crude oil. And it would've been more extreme if not for the strange moves. Artificial intelligence, indeed.

Saved by the bell?

Does it matter?

AAPL may never see 350 again

Movin' on up no matter the manipulation stateside

Up up up

Absolutely untainted by equity manipulation

Pump on Fast Money didn't hurt either

All indications point toward continued stampede-like behavior in crude and PMs. How did JP Morgan not pull the rug out on PMs by yesterday or today? Are they shackled now? Is silver going to hit $40 next week? 

I have a very hard time believing that the dollar will implode, that the puppet masters won't pull the rug out from the masses (moving into PMs) soon. Real soon. I hope it doesn't happen that way. Where else is the small-fry citizen to trade or invest when all else is failing? Shorting equities is dangerous with QE2 at full bore. Metals make sense, but strange things happen overnight, or over a weekend. 

In other words, I trust no one. To those of have the gumption to go long silver (rather than sell early as I did), a toast to you. And a merry weekend, also. I caught a bit of a ride on SLV last week, but missed the ride to 34.87 (after hours today). UCO was appealing, but I stayed out and it closed AH at 56.50 today (5.3%). Big cajones means you were still long EXK (+12.2%), which closed AH at 9.36 today. 

EXK 9.36 (+12.2%), UCO 56.50 (+5.3%), NGD 10.79 (+5.2%), SLV 34.93 (+4.5%), NFLX 211.80 (+4.1%), TVIX 42.74 (+4.1%), SLW 45.15 (+3.3%), PAAS 39.70 (+3.2%), CRR 122.90 (+3.2%)

FAS 30.69 (-3.7%), CLNE 13.51 (-2.9%), C 4.55 (-2.8%), VCLK 14.80 (-2.4%), GS 160.80 (-2.2%), EGPT 17.57 (-2.1%), F 14.45 (-2.1%), X 55.70 (-1.9%), GOOG 600.24 (-1.5%), FCX 51.69 (-1.4%), TBT 38.78 (-1.3%)

All (mainly) because of Libya and the contagion of protest across the Middle East. The violence. Quaddafi. But intervention is imminent. Them big ships loaded to the gills with peacemaking weaponry are closing in on Libya sooner or later. Crude will return to 'normalcy.' 

Didn't trade today. I'm starting to realize that even when the direction of the market is fairly clear, the artificial vapors are affecting my judgment. Otherwise I would've jumped in when SLW pulled back roughly 50% on today's gain. I would've trusted what I've seen and bought UCO. I definitely would've opened a UCO position as a hedge if I were long AAPL. Instead, I stayed all cash, as I have since early in the week. 

A coward, yes, but a coward who can relax this weekend and return Monday morning fully locked and loaded. Takes a bit of a twisted mind to attack this particular market. Will work on that this weekend. 

Friday reading
AP: Oil settles at highest level since Sept. 2008 (Mar 4 2011) "Oil prices rose past $104 a barrel to end the week at a 29-month high..."

AP: Burst of hiring could mark turning point for jobs (Mar 4 2011)

The Telegrah: Libyan rebels vow 'victory or death' (Mar 4 2011)

King World News: John Hathaway: $50 to $60 silver, US dollar in danger (Mar 3 2011) "If we have a continuation of QE2 past June 30th, I wouldn't be surprised to see silver in the $50, $60 an ounce territory. PMs and oil top the list in what is becoming, apparently, an every-other-day switcheroo between equities and metals/oils.

The Fly: Yelp is a partner of Open Table, i.e. Asshat of the Week Award to Herb Greenberg/Brad Safalow (Mar 3 2011) "You f**king imbecile, Yelp is a partner of OPEN's. And, to top it off, the only relevent website that could ever threaten OPEN's dominance, Tripadvisor.com, have a partnership as well."

Zero Hedge: Utah pushes to accept gold, silver as alternative currency (Mar 3 2011)

Turd Ferguson: Silver consolidating above 34 (Mar 3 2011)