Tuesday, July 31, 2007

So why don't I get more BIDU?

There are a core of stocks that I've looked at, studied, even (ahem) almost worshipped over the past few months.

I'm not proud about it. I've spent more time looking at their assets than I have with human beings sometimes. One of them is Google. Another is Baidu. I could not recommend a more sound stock than Google. So the Co spent a ton of money to hire key people near and afar. They missed "expectations" by $.08. They don't even guide anyone regarding expectations, so I doubt they're overly concerned about near-term fluctuations in a stock that they'll never spli, a la Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway stock.

Baidu? The revenues still don't justify the market cap and stock, but that would be like quibbling over a young Babe Ruth and his growing weight problem. Can the guy pitch? Can he hit? Baidu is going to be a hall of famer one day, and it doesn't hurt to have your friendly neighborhood goverment backing you up.

Beyond those factors, nobody can really justify or deny a valuation of the stock. Well, there's Citigroup's Jason Breuschke, who downgraded BIDU at $197, then upgraded the stock at $215. He told TheStreet.com's Vishesh Kumar that China's warp-speed growth could eventually give Baidu a market cap of $35 to $45 billion. That's a share price of $1,500.

And yet, when I decided to enter the market and get some shares at the close today, Baidu and Google were shunned.

Early in the day, I kept my promise to self and got more Nintendo shares. The ones I should've got at $36, but instead got at $52 a few weeks ago, and at $62 today. It felt right. Maybe the timing will prove to be a mistake in this choppy, brutal market, but Nintendo is No. 1 on my list of best growth stocks. A buy based on due diligence never feels wrong.

After the bell, I also got more Apple on the dip, i.e. conspiracy trap, at $134. It wasn't the bottom of today's pullback, but I'm not complaining. Apple is my favorite Co in the world. Their PowerBook brought consistency and quality to an important part of my life when all other wanna-bes sucked royally. I don't even own an iPod or iPhone, but I know greatness when it is in front of me. Steve Jobs was made for Apple and vice-versa.

I also picked up a few shares of another company for my nephew. I've promised him that I'd buy stock for him on a monthly basis. This month, after studying the fundamentals, he wanted Under Armor. More than margins and revenues, he's sold on the quality of UA's products. I just regret that I didn't pay attention to the stock until the day after UA blew out earnings expectations. At $61, time will tell whether I got the shares at a real discount. UA raised guidance for the rest of the year, like CROX did last week, so I have reason to expect a win here.

Go figure. My nephew has stock in Nintendo and Under Armor. Pretty good for an 11-year-old.

Now only if his uncle can summon the will to get more BIDU and start a position in GOOG.

Pupule Paul is long BIDU, NTDOY.PK, AAPL and UA.

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