Mo'ili'ili Quarry: 49% certain vs. 51% sure?

Thursday, July 1, 2010

49% certain vs. 51% sure?

The ever-reliable market technician chessNwine has stepped out of the box and taken a more bullish stance today. He points to several hammers among indices/ETFs in his candlestick charting analysis, including the S&P 500.

But are they hammers in the definitive sense? Over at American Bulls, the S&P 500 is read as a black spinning top.

Whatever and whomever is correct, it's more potato-versus-potaahhtoe territory. The hammer/spinning top is noticeable enough to warrant every close inspection on tomorrow's open, particularly with a key jobs report due.

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Disclosure in a Box: 2012

Disclosure in a box: 2011

01/14 bot AAPL 345.67 | 01/19 sold 340.88, 340.15
01/24 bot AAPL 335.34 | 01/27 sold 343.32
01/28 bot VXX 32.11 | sold 31.57
02/02 bot VXX 30.55 | 02/03 sold 29.88
02/08 bot AAPL 351.82 | 02/10 sold 358.70
02/16 bot AAPL 363.33 | 02/16 sold 360.50
02/18 bot SLV 31.35 31.56 | 02/22 sold 32.40
03/01 bot SLW 43.21 | 03/01 sold 43.16
03/01 bot SLW 43.63 | 03/02 sold 43.10
03/11 bot AAPL 352.59 | sold 352.79
03/16 bot EXK 8.75 | sold 8.55
03/16 bot TVIX 59.99 | sold 59.51
03/24 bot AAPL 346.75 | 03/25 sold 350.65
04/13 bot WNR 17.75 | sold 17.65
04/13 bot WNR 17.85 | 04/18 sold 17.15
04/15 bot SLV 41.60 | 04/18 sold 41.70
04/19 bot SLV 42.57 | sold 43.07
04/19 bot SLV 43.04 | 04/20 sold 43.67
04/20 bot SLV 43.93 | sold 43.85
04/20 bot SLV 43.95 | sold 44.01
04/21 bot SLV 45.70 | 04/25 sold 46.70
04/27 bot SLV 44.75 | 04/28 sold 46.75
04/28 bot GLD 149.69 | 05/02 sold 150.38
04/29 bot AGQ 373.44 | sold 369.44
04/29 bot DGP 50.63 | sold 50.76
05/06 bot AGQ 196 | sold 189.87
05/06 bot EXK 9.73 | sold 9.52
05/06 bot GPL 3.45 | sold 3.34
05/06 bot XG 9.58 | sold 9.49
05/09 bot AGQ 203.11 | sold 201.83
05/09 bot AGQ 206.11 | sold 205.21
05/09 bot AGQ 206.11 | sold 205.66
05/09 bot AGQ 209.81 | sold 219.33
05/09 bot UCO 51.40 | sold 51.05
05/10 bot AGQ 223.99 | sold 222.90
05/10 bot SCO 43.80 | sold 42.80
05/11 bot ZSL 21.45 | sold 21.20
05/11 bot ZSL 21.50 | sold 21.60
05/12 bot ZSL 21.76 | sold 21.79
05/12 bot ZSL 21.88 | sold 21.80
05/16 bot ZSL 21.39 | sold 21.46
05/17 bot ZSL 21.81 | sold 21.63
05/17 bot ZSL 21.99 | sold 21.71
05/18 bot AGQ 172.33 | sold 171.61
05/23 bot XG 10.73 | 05/26 sold 10.48
05/24 bot EXK 9.37 | 05/26 sold 9.48
05/25 bot AGQ 195.00 | 05/26 sold 191.48
05/27 bot DGP 48.96 | 08/22 sold 63.25
05/27 bot XG 10.67 | sold 05/31 11.79
06/01 bot OWW 3.34 | 06/08 sold 2.35
06/02 bot FAZ 46.40 | sold 45.60
06/03 bot AGQ 179.68 | sold 178.77
06/03 bot AGQ 179.99 | sold 178.48
06/08 bot FAZ 50.73 | 06/09 sold 50.10
06/22 bot FAZ 48.28 | 06/23 sold 49.35
07/08 bot AGQ 184.79 | 07/11 sold 172.94
07/08 bot FAZ 43.33 | sold 43.03
07/08 bot XG 14.25 | 08/11 sold 11.80
07/13 bot AGQ 196.65 | 07/19 sold 205.00
07/15 bot GSVC 19.75 | 08/09 sold 12.19
07/22 bot GSVC 17.20 | 08/09 sold 12.19
07/27 bot ZSL 13.27 | 07/28 sold 13.51
07/29 bot GSVC 16.00 | 08/09 sold 12.19
07/29 bot ZSL 13.46 | 08/02 sold 13.23
08/05 bot FAZ 62.87 | sold 62.70
08/05 bot FAZ 63.55 | sold 62.70
08/08 bot FAZ 77.95 | sold 77.60
08/09 bot AAPL 375.45 | 08/10 sold 372.00
08/09 bot DGP 63.43 | 08/11 sold 63.25
08/09 bot FAZ 74.75 81.00 | sold 74.04
08/09 sold GSVC 12.19
08/10 bot FAZ 65.00 | sold 68.53
08/10 bot FAZ 68.00 | sold 68.90
08/10 bot FAZ 70.00 | sold 70.50
08/10 bot FAZ 70.80 | sold 70.65
08/10 bot FAZ 71.40 | sold 70.57
08/11 bot DZZ 4.96 | sold 4.88
08/12 bot FAZ 61.65 | sold 61.53
08/15 bot DGP 63.52 | 08/23 sold 68.57
08/16 bot DGP 64.75 | 08/23 sold 68.57
08/16 bot FAZ 59.00 | sold 58.40
08/19 bot FAZ 69.00 | sold 68.74
08/19 bot FAZ 69.35 | sold 68.40
08/25 bot DGP 63.63 | 08/26 sold 64.62
09/01 bot FAZ 54.50 | 09/02 sold 60.03
09/09 bot FAZ 63.90 | sold 63.50
09/14 bot FAZ 58.00 | 09/15 sold 56.35
09/21 bot FAZ 65.00 65.40 | 09/22 sold 71.14
09/23 bot FAZ 69.14 | 09/26 sold 65.75
09/26 (a) bot DGP 52.22 | 09/27 sold 55.00
09/26 (b) bot FAZ 67.50 | sold 66.12
09/27 bot FAZ 60.53 | 09/28 sold 59.41
09/28 (a) bot FAZ 60.80, 61.85 | sold 60.70
09/28 (b) bot FAZ 61.34 | sold 60.65
09/28 (c) bot FAZ 62.25 | sold 62.15
09/28 (d) bot FAZ 63.60, 65.00 | 09/29 sold 62.26
09/30 (a) bot FAZ 64.00, 64.40 | sold 63.70
09/30 (b) bot FAZ 64.00 | sold 63.50
09/30 (c) bot FAZ 64.60 | sold 63.87
09/30 (d) bot FAZ 64.50 | sold 66.00
10/04 (a) bot FAZ 76.00 | sold 75.60
10/04 (b) bot FAZ 75.00 | sold 75.19
10/04 (c) bot FAZ 76.00, 77.00, 79.00 | sold 78.50
10/04 (d) bot AAPL 372.68 | sold 371.75
10/05 (a) bot AAPL 379.00 | sold 377.30
10/05 (b) bot FAZ 67.99 | sold 67.25
10/05 (c) bot AAPL 379.00 | sold 377.50
10/05 (d) bot FAZ 65.18 | 10/06 sold 63.39
10/06 bot FAS 11.40 | sold 11.53
10/07 (a) bot 100 FAZ 63.30, 64.05 | sold 62.90
10/07 (b) bot FAZ 63.20 | 10/10 sold 60.10
10/10 (a) bot FAS 11.08 | sold 11.00
10/10 (b) bot FAS 11.09 | sold 11.33
10/10 (c) bot FAZ 54.84 | 10/11 sold 56.53
10/11 (a) bot FAS 12.00 | sold 11.91
10/11 (b) bot FAZ 54.92 | 10/12 sold 53.25
10/12 (a) bot FAS 12.31 | sold 12.23
10/12 (b) bot FAS 12.42 | sold 12.47
10/13 (a) bot FAZ 54.04 | sold 54.07
10/13 (b) bot FAZ 54.00 54.15 | sold 53.60
10/13 (c) bot FAZ 54.42 | 10/14 sold 52.50
10/14 (a) bot FAS 12.45 | sold 12.40
10/14 (b) bot FAZ 53.85 | sold 53.60
10/14 (c) bot AAPL 419.50 420.00 | sold 419.07
10/14 (d) bot FAS 12.40 | sold 12.20
10/17 (a) bot FAZ 56.00 | sold 56.08
10/17 (b) bot FAZ 56.35 | sold 56.55
10/18 bot FAS 12.99 | sold 12.68
10/25 (a) bot FAZ 44.70 | sold 43.96
10/25 (b) bo FAZ 44.80 | sold 44.96
10/25 (c) bot FAZ 45.33 | sold 45.64
YTD Grade: C-
YTD Net: -1%

Disclosure in a box: 2010

01/19 bot AAPL 214.40 | 05/11 sold 257.70
02/08 bot AAPL 196.25 | 02/11 sold 198.77
02/11 bot AAPL 199.20 | sold 200.80
02/16 bot AAPL 202.10 | 02/17 sold 202.37
02/18 bot F 11.40 | 02/25 sold 11.40
02/25 bot F 11.79 | 03/02 sold 12.40
03/02 bot F 12.55 | 03/03 sold F 12.70
03/05 bot F 12.91 | 03/08 sold 12.92
03/09 bot C 3.88 | 03/10 sold 3.96
03/09 bot F 12.86 | sold 12.80
03/10 bot C 4.07 | 3/11 sold 4.20
03/10 bot C 4.07 | 3/12 sold 4.07
03/17 bot C 4.10 | 03/26 sold 4.28
04/06 bot DNDN 40.40 | sold 39.55
04/07 bot C 4.33 | 04/15 sold 4.77
04/14 bot FNM 1.31 | 04/16 sold 1.21
04/20 bot C 4.95 | 04/20 sold 4.98
04/21 bot C 4.95 | 04/26 sold 4.61
04/28 bot BIDU 710.50 | 05/05 sold 678.00
04/28 bot IMAX 20.15, 20.40 | 05/10 sold 18.42
05/05 bot NBG 3.04 | 05/06 sold 2.66
05/06 bot VXX 27.40 | 05/07 sold 28.91
05/10 bot VXX 25.60 | sold 25.50
05/10 bot VXX 25.88 | sold 25.72
05/11 bot AAPL 259.65 | 05/13 sold 259.75
05/11 bot VXX 26.35 | sold 25.95
05/12 bot BIDU 76.05 | sold 77.65
05/12 bot VXX 25.83 | sold 24.54
05/13 bot FAZ 12.61 | sold 12.51
05/14 bot FAZ 13.96, 14.06 | sold 13.86
05/18 bot FAZ 14.76 | sold 14.99
05/18 bot FAZ 14.96 | 05/19 sold 15.32
05/20 bot FAZ 16.16 | 05/21 sold 16.95
05/20 bot VXX 32.01 32.28 33.22 | sold 32.50
05/20 bot VXX 33.02 | 05/21 sold 34.80
05/20 bot VXX 33.97 | sold 32.98
05/20 bot VXX 34.45 | sold 33.66
05/21 bot VXX 34.80 | sold 34.41
05/25 bot AAPL 245.09 | 05/26 sold 249.88
05/25 bot VXX 31.29 | 05/26 sold 30.60
05/26 bot VXX 31.45 | 05/27 sold 29.27
06/02 bot AAPL 263.77 | 06/03 sold AAPL 260.88
06/03 bot UNG 8.01 | 06/04 sold UNG 8.00
06/04 bot AAPL 255.30 | 06/07 sold 257.15
06/04 bot UNG 8.25 | 06/07 sold 8.02
06/07 bot UNG 8.41 | sold 8.38
06/07 bot VXX 32.30 | sold 32.53
06/09 bot VXX 31.11 | sold 30.80
06/09 bot VXX 31.33 | 06/10 sold 30.49
YTD +/-: +8% (incl. commissions)
YTD grade: C-

Disclosure in a Box: 2009

AAPL bot 123.74 | sold 124.33
AAPL bot 125.40 | sold 124.51
AAPL bot 95.75 | sold 106.75
AIG bot 1.61 | sold 0.97
ATVI bot 11.15 | sold 10.65
BAC bot 10.19 | sold 8.22
BAC bot 10.92 | sold 8.22
BAC bot 11.34 | sold 11.67 11.68 12.14
BAC bot 12.40 11.12 | sold 12.12 12.59 12.62
BAC bot 13.37 | sold 13.09
BAC bot 13.38 13.75 | sold 13.54
BAC bot 13.54 13.88 14.91 | sold 13.74 14.59 14.65
BAC bot 9.10 9.35 | sold 9.04 9.11 8.20 8.90
BAC bot 9.11 | sold 9.04
BAC bot 9.11 | sold 9.11
C bot 1.70 | sold 2.21
C bot 2.01 | sold 2.21
C bot 2.01 | sold 2.56
C bot 2.26 | sold 2.56
C bot 2.40 | sold 2.56
C bot 2.54 | sold 2.56
C bot 2.96 | sold 3.20
C bot 3.12 | sold 3.67
C bot 3.13 | sold 3.67
C bot 3.15 | sold 3.20
C bot 3.23 | sold 3.19
C bot 3.35 | sold 2.92
C bot 3.74 | sold 3.81
C bot 3.80 | sold 4.10
C bot 3.92 | sold 3.70
C bot 4.05 | sold 4.38
CROX bot 1.91 | sold 1.84
DNDN bot 21.55 22.25 | sold 21.55 20.25
DNDN bot 21.70 21.60 24.25 23.95 25.75 | sold 23.95 21.36 21.45
DNDN bot 21.95 | sold 21.81
DNDN bot 22.15 | sold 22.12
DNDN bot 22.15 | sold 22.47
DRYS bot 8.29 | sold 9.33
DRYS bot 8.34 | sold 8.28
EGLE bot 7.06 | sold 7.30
ETFC bot 1.54 | sold 1.39
F bot 5.18 | sold 5.11
F bot 5.24 | sold 5.11
FAS bot 7.19 | sold 7.34
FAS bot 8.06 | sold 8.06
FAS bot 8.20 | sold 8.00
FAS bot 8.23 | sold 8.33
FAS bot 8.25 | sold 8.25
FAZ bot 11.25 | sold 12.40
FAZ bot 11.67 | sold 12.40
FAZ bot 12.57 | sold 12.02
FIG bot 5.81 6.60 | sold 7.55 7.80
FIG bot 7.65 | sold 7.55 7.60
INTC bot 15.75 | sold 15.79
LVS bot 10.24 | sold 10.12
LVS bot 10.36 | sold 10.25
LVS bot 10.65 | sold 10.65
LVS bot 10.95 | sold 10.96
LVS bot 11.01 | sold 10.91
LVS bot 11.19 | sold 11.18
LVS bot 11.25 | sold 11.31
LVS bot 11.35 11.50 11.14 | sold 11.11
LVS bot 4.45 | sold 4.45
LVS bot 5.77 | sold 6.80
LVS bot 8.03 | 9.01
LVS bot 8.03 | sold 8.91
LVS bot 8.17 | sold 8.07
LVS bot 9.05 9.09 | sold 9.32
MGM bot 8.75 | sold 8.31
RIMM bot 72.58 | sold 73.10
RIMM bot 72.88 73.24 | sold 72.84 74.84 71.95
RIMM bot 75.95 76.33 | sold 76.92 76.09
RIMM bot 79.15 78.20 | sold 78.60 77.96
RIMM bot 79.97 81.16 | sold 79.91 81.96
RIMM bot 82.15 | sold 81.60
RIMM bot 82.48 | sold 82.00
STP bot 12.57 | sold 12.95
STP bot 12.70 | sold 12.95
WFC bot 13.75 15.58 | sold 14.70
WFC bot 13.75 | sold 15.70
WFC bot 15.55 | sold 15.70
WFC bot 18.93 19.30 | sold 19.12
WFC bot 18.93 | sold 19.12
WFC bot 19.30 | sold 19.12
XOMA bot 1.19 | sold 1.40 1.22
YTD: +6% (incl. commissions)

Ain't it true?

What I had to do was to find stocks that would be hoisted up because they stirred people's imagination for the future. ... I was not interested in the company's individual products, whether it was metals for rockets, solid fuel, or advanced electronic equipment. In fact, I did not want to know what they made—that information might only inhibit me. I did not care what the company's products were, any more than I was influenced by the fact that the board chairman had a beautiful wife. But I did want to know whether the company belonged to a new vigorous infant industry and whether it be haved in the market according to my requirements.

This, of course, was directly against the advice of many financial writers with conservative backgrounds who have been pounding into investors for generations that they must study company reports and balance sheets, find out all they can about a stock's background, in order to make a wise investment. I decided that was not for me. All a company report and balance sheet can tell you is the past and the present. They cannot tell the future. And it was for this I had to project my plans.

—Nicolas Darvas, 1959

Mo'ili'ili Quarry

Thursday, July 1, 2010

49% certain vs. 51% sure?

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