Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Windup Wednesday (updated 12:29 pm)

3:34 am (Hawaii) Feels like a pitcher on the mound, finally out of the dugout and throwing his first few pitches. I had bet against that hurler, thinking he'd get hit and hit deep by Europe. But the market is net positive this morning. Green everywhere. It's probably more of a dead cat bounce than anything, but it was enough to chase me out of my position in FAZ at 24.60, taking a loss of 0.70/share. That's a small loss, but it's still a loss and the losses are racking up.

Of course, soon as I sold, FAZ bounced right up to 24.82. So this rally isn't going straight up. Looks and feels more like a range bound move. Still holding GSVC, down a dime or so, not bad.

Update 5:09 am Still holding GSVC, which rallied off its low and is hovering at 18.25. FAZ exploded in the past 7 minutes from sub-25 to 25.27. In other words, had I held, I'd be almost break even.

Dow Jones nearly gave back all of its gains, was at +7 a minute ago. Are the algos buying up dips today? AAPL barely in the green. GRPN exploded to 13+ before pulling back to 12.65.

Update 5:23 am Bloomberg reporting that the ECB will not enact stimulus until June or July. That may explain the jump in FAZ and the selloff in the indices. Or not. Long FAZ at 25.10.

Update 7:10 am Reggie Middleton talked about insolvency in the banksters long ago and he's still right. This video is from around New Year's. He'll continue to be right until the next QE.


Update 7:46 am Indices biting the dust again. This has been far more predictable than I ever imagined. Wish I'd noticed the pattern sooner. Interesting piece on a Lehman/Greece comparison. But seeing AAPL plunge from 551 to 546 in the last several minutes is a stunner. I've anticipated AAPL doing a Fibonacci retrace to 546 and here it is. 

Update 8:16 am FAZ running above 25.60 as traders pile on the banksters. Below, the string of afternoon (Eastern time) upswings by FAZ.

Indices are fractionally down, AAPL still holding on at 546.

Update 9:20 am JPM was in the green much of the day, now struggling to stay above 35. That's rock bottom and it will probably dip a little more and remain stagnant for some time. AAPL at 541 ... spooky. This morning, when I sold FAZ (for a small loss), 70% of my Debt Spiral Dance (banksters) list was green. Now? It's 19% green, 76% red. Fugly, indeed.

FAZ his at 25.99. That's green for me, but the downturn in the indices means GSVC sold off in a fugly way, so I'm net down for the day so far.

Update 9:32 am Out of FAZ at 25.95, locked in profit of 0.85/share. There's plenty of upside from here, but 1) there's a huuuge load of shares waiting on the sell block at 25.98, 25.99, 26.00, and 2) this will likely sell into the close as traders rake in profits, and 3) I don't want to hold this overnight again.

This puts me just barely over break even for the day on closed trades. I still have GSVC sitting out there at 17.78, down from my buy yesterday at 18.35. Fugggly.

Update 12:29 pm All kinds of coverage of David Einhorn at the hedge fund conference in NYC. He doesn't say anything about HLF and it spikes 9%. He pans a few other stocks, they crash (get halted too). He raves about AAPL and it goes from 542 to 546 in the final minutes before the close.

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