Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Rudderless market (updated 12:32 pm)

8:08 am (Hawaii) I still think the robots are in control, just not as firmly as yesterday. AAPL ran to 573 and ran out of steam. The buying ended and it has since pulled back to 563 where it drifts in an abyss. The indices looked about ready to give all its gains back today, but have stayed positive in the past hour.

Somehow someway the financials are getting a "lift". That's where I think G8 hit the switch and got the robots cranked up. Again. 95% of my Debt Spiral list is green, and that includes NBG and STD. JPM is up 5.3% to 34.24 even though it is (in my mind) almost certain that their losses are about to double or triple (or worse).

Sure no stock goes to 0 in a straight line, but this is borderline comedy that insolvent institutions are being propped up on nothing (that we peons can know about). In the end, the printing presses will hum. In the end-end, they will not. But that's not today and I haven't hit a buy order yet. All for the best.

Some reading for your pleasure and education:

Jim Wyckoff: Top 10 mistakes traders make (May 21)

Update 9:25 am Back in FAZ at 26.85. I wanted in at 26.70, missed it by a hair. Was looking for a breakout above 26.80 or a pullback to the range low of 26.55. Indices pummeled in the past 15 minutes. Nasdaq in the red with AAPL back to 557.

Greek/Eurozone has a big day tomorrow. Not looking to play either side, just watching FAZ price action, have my stop loss in place. So much for that dead cat bounce. JPM had been up large today, pulling back now to 34.09. It was at 32.99 early today. Might close there, who knows.

When AAPL started to crater, I just didn't have the guts to short it. I've never shorted anything directly, only through something like FAZ. But AAPL has already hit 546 recently, my Fibonacci retrace price (from 396 to the 644 high), and it was at 521 just two sessions ago. Strange times indeed.

Update 9:41 am FAZ reached higher, above 27.40, before pulling back some to 27.29. My stop loss target has been raised three times already. Maybe four.

Greece's former PM feels no obligation to toe the party line, the EU line, the ECB line, any line. His words today are fuel for the fire on financials like JPM, which is now sub 34 (33.93) and eroding.

BBC (video): Papandreou: Greek euro exit would 'destroy' economy (May 22)

Updated 9:52 am Out of FAZ at 27.33 (+0.48/share). Sticking to price discipline even though FAZ could easily open tomorrow above 27.50 or even 28.00 with the way the whole Greek bank run/Eurozone paranoia is shaking out. Just had to secure a decent profit before traders do the same in these final minutes before the bell.

Might try a very small position right before the bell to play tomorrow's scenario. Just don't see the Greeks coming to any kind of compromise with eurozone. It's too early for the new politicians.

Updated 12:32 pm In all, I changed my stop loss on FAZ eight times in that last trade. It was worth it each time.

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