Thursday, February 17, 2011

It's all about a cheapskate mentality


12:00 pm (Hawaii). Isn't it? Haggling for a great, not just good, but great price. Sure, there are breakout strategies, which is akin to betting on football teams that throw 10 or 15 bombs per game. Not all breakouts lead to touchdowns, unquestionably. Why should any of us overpay?

There are always indicators that lead to profits. Clues. Little hints in between earnings reports and fantastically great (or horrendous) catalysts. I like a good book real cheap. Used is fine with me as long as it's almost new. Paying 2 bucks online for a slightly worn 20-dollar book is great. So with Borders shuttering a third of its stores, will we have brand-new books at yard-sale prices? Probably not so much. CNN.com reports that most books at Borders will be moved to stores that will remain open.

Boo.

What else might be cheap? Le Fly indicated, uh, well, something about PSUN. A quick check showed that Pacific Sunwear shares went from 24 to below 1 buck in the past five years. Now at 4.44, it still has ugly numbers, but manageable debt. Float is just 41.4 million shares and short interest as of January 31 is 26.6%. Are sales about to go gangbusters? Does Mr. Fly know something neat-o about California clothing retail? One fact: Greek Investments made a $1.55 million investment, buying 350,000 shares recently. That's an average price of 4.43.

During the same time span, Carl Icahn invested $1.16 mil in HAIN, and HAIN shares have been explosive. Maybe if Icahn would invest in PSUN, it would shoot to the moon. A little digging, a little interest, but nothing constructive enough to make me open a position. Well, maybe a teeny one.

The reason I go into the notion of being a cheapskate, spendthrift, haggler, etc. is simple. I am so NOT a haggler. Sure, I look for cheaper prices when I buy groceries or gas. But the lack of extreme cheapskateism probably hurts me more than helps me in trading. Why else did I walk into that AAPL trade yesterday afterhours at 363? Was it buyer's remorse for not entering (as my technicals indicated) at 362.35 early in the day? (It quickly rose to 364.90 before reversing.) Or was I fatigued, impatient and/or bored? It made me think and think and think. If I were truly a tighwad willing to accept ONLY the best price at the best time, how much better off would my trading account be?

So I need to study and adopt more techniques and, more so, the mentality that being cheap involves. I'm not saying being cheap means being stupid or stubborn. But it goes back to the most basic of market mantras: buy low, sell high. I did this to an extent in the past month, but not well enough.

Update, 12:28 pm (Hawaii). SLV up almost 20% since late January, from 26+ to 31. Just can't get bubbly and excited over a position here.

Updated, 2:55 pm (Hawaii). Afterhours market closes in five minutes. Amazing to see PSUN, which was mentioned by Le Fly earlier today, up quite a bit. PSUN closed the session at 4.44, but is now at 4.58. Sure, it's AH and tiny volume, but this is exactly why I don't touch anything flying this high at this time of day. Watching PSUN closely, though. Something might be up, and with such a heavy boat of shorters, it could sink or soar.

Taking a closer look at metals — SLV, EXK, GLD, NGD, even X — though I probably won't touch anything tomorrow (options expiry).

AAPL at 358.50. Twitter search for "Steve Jobs" is getting 15 to 80 new tweets per minute right now. Would love to see a photo of him and the prez at their dinner meeting.

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