Friday, April 1, 2011

Wrestling with Oil


8:45 am (Hawaii) It's the 1st of April, but there is hardly a fool in the market today. 64% of my watch list is green. With so many bear plays on my list, 64% is pretty close to Pure Bull Pandemonium. 

Oil is breaking higher. WNR, Le Fly's first oil-refinery play since the Japan disaster, is above 18. Holy cash cow! WNR is up 6.6% to 18.15, a HOD, after closing below 17 yesterday. I'm still in bed, observing the world through my laptop, and haven't watched or read any global news yet. Has Libya blown up? Have the Saudis raised the price of crude? 

I see UCO up 2.5% to 58.47. APC is up 1% to 82.77. But really, refiners have been the play of intelligence. Fly was right about the need for crude particularly when Japan went into rebuild mode and WNR is a logical play no matter what else happens bullish or bearish. 

YZC, that crazy China coal play, is up 4.6% to 37.96. As oil costs rise, the Chinese continue looking to manufacture cheap energy. Coal is logical. 

Also up: HAIN (+3.2%, 33.34), NFLX (+2.4%, 243.60), MOS (+2.2%, 80.47), LVS (+3.7%, 43.77), F (+2.6%, 15.29). 

AAPL opened above 351 (while I slept soundly), but has retreated again and is below 348. I've been busy attending other matters this week, but managed to catch a piece of Fast Money late last night on the DVR. The traders are skeptical about AAPL going higher from here due to the (perception of?) parts shortages due to Japan. The one trader who I tend to agree a little more with on this was Brian Kelly, who emphasized the huge demand for Apple products (iPad 2). What's a couple more weeks of waiting? I agree. AAPL won't hit 400 as soon as most of us thought, but it'll get there. 

Big losers with 75 minutes left in the session: AZK (-4.6%, 6.70), EDZ (-4.2%, 17.12), CHGS (-3.9%, 2.92), PSUN (-3%, 3.51), TVIX (-2.7%, 35.30), GG (-1.4%, 49.11). The metals were flat earlier, but have filled up the red side of my watch list. Besides AZK, there's EXK (-0.7%, 9.75), SLW (-0.8%, 43.00) and PHYS, GLD are slightly down. GLD actually rallied some after gapping down to 138 at the open. 

It's obviously a trader's market. If I can get more comfortable with sectors like crude oil — UCO would be a great hedge to the rising cost of gas ($4.19 in Honolulu) — it wouldn't be so hard to get a grasp of. 


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