Receding tide or market tsunami?

(Photo: Fortune)

Update, 3:05 pm (Hawaii). Still getting used to the change in time zones. We're six hours difference from the East Coast now, not five. Catches me off guard when 2 o'clock arrives and I realize aftermarket has closed. 

What a comeback by the market in the latter half of the session. Now futures are mostly green, though not by more than six-tenths of a percent. Still quite interesting considering nothing in Japan has been secured. The nuclear reactors are still a threat. But emotional trading hit the market in the past 48 hours and that has finally petered out, apparently. Still a long way until tomorrow's opening bell, of course. 

AAPL's ride today was an opportunity for the risk-takers. The only other stock that interests me is WNR (oil refiner). I have no interest in playing the volatility (TVIX, VXX) or bearish ETFs. Not sure why; I used to like VXX a lot. I'm at peace waiting this out. 

Looking ahead: Aside from oil refiners like WNR, watching coal plays (Japan needs energy) and Bakken Shale plays. Whether you are in favor of these or not, the media will milk all it can out of these stories. Propaganda, whatever. Still keeping an eye on precious metals, but the seasonal rotation out has begun en masse, it seems. 

AAPL is still my preferred vehicle. If outflows become massive, that'll put a lid on AAPL short term, similar to 2009. But if money stays in the market, hedge funds will pile on. Again. It happened today with NFLX. It will happen with AAPL, if this crisis passes. Apparently, information coming out of Fukushima is wildly contrasting. I don't believe anything they're saying, not much anyway, except what Kudlow said about the Prime Minister asking the officials in Fukushima, "What the hell is going on?!" 

Update, 4:10 pm (Hawaii). Short note on AAPL. Previous support was at 338 and 326. Today's drop to 340 was close enough to test 338 ... but I'd like to see a dip below 340 to see if 338 really will hold. Guess here is iPad 2 momentum is too strong and 338 won't fall. But the problems in Japan continue, so anything is possible before the opening bell tomorrow.

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Dave Fry: Rumors dominate markets  (Mar 15 2011)
Warren Mosler: Welcome to the 7th US Depression (Mar 15 2011)
Jon Bon Jovi: Steve Jobs killed the music business (Mar 15 2011)