Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Who needs a helmet anyway?



(2:45 am, Hawaii) AAPL was trading below 341 when I got home a little while ago. 43% of my watch list was green. Not bullish, not bearish. Just drifting. But 10 minutes ago, volume entered AAPL in premarket and boosted shares to a high of 343.43. AAPL was at 330 just two sessions ago (Friday), so this is something to ponder.

At the same time AAPL, NFLX and GOOG were showing some strength in premarket, the rest of my list began to sink. It got as low as 33% green. SLW slightly down. Crude oil down. Yen slightly up. Japan slightly down. AAPL now back below 343. What does it all mean?

I'm not sure. Therefore, I won't be chasing AAPL this morning, not after yesterday's 10-dollar gain on low volume. After all, Charlie Brown has no business believing Lucy's lies unless he gives it another try while wearing a helmet or some kind of protection (hedge with QID?). Let her go fool some other clown.

In the meantime, WNR is fairly durable in this choppy market. Oil refiners are almost bulletproof in this environment. Aaaalllllmost...

(Update, 9:30 am, Hawaii) 30 minutes left in the session and it's a sea of red. Just 33% of my watch list is green. It's ugly out there. NFLX is holding on to most of its gains thanks to the thumbs up from Credit Suisse. Every time CS gives a stock the double thumbs-up, it rockets. Writing fiction was never so easy. NFLX is the leader in its sector, but come on ... if you own NFLX, more power to you, though. The shorts are getting freshly squeezed.

UCO is also powering higher, up 4% as crude oil tops $104 a barrel. UCO was in the red when the opening bell sounded, but is up 2.15 to 55.31. AAPL has held on to some of its gain, well off its HOD above 342, now at 340.94. I don't see that holding much longer given this backwards momentum and yesterday's lack of conviction. Yes, even in a $10 move, there wasn't much volume. Only 10M shares traded in AAPL so far today.



Gizmodo: New photo shows how they are cooling down Fukushima (Mar 22 2011)
CNN Money: Netflix buys its first original show (Mar 22 2011)
Fast Money: Netflix to become cable company to the world? (Mar 22 2011)
Fast Money: Crude oil could spike to 110 (Mar 22 2011)
Bloomberg: All clear sounded as markets shrug off multiple black swans (Mar 22 2011)
Bloomberg: Radiation found in sea as work goes on to restore power (Mar 22 2011)
Business Insider: Water at Reactor #4 is heating up (Mar 22 2011)
CNN Money: Nikkei up 4.4% (Mar 22 2011)
Reuters: Stocks extend gains in EMs (Mar 22 2011)
Benzinga: Credit Suisse upgrades Netflix to outperform (Mar 22 2011)
Reuters: China rare earth prices explode as export volumes collapse (Mar 22 2011)
Business Insider: Hedge funds bought the dip (Mar 22 2011)

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