Monday, August 6, 2007

Foolish Fools love Volcom, hate Crocs

I enjoy, to some degree, reading Motley Fool. I'm not a subscriber, but the Gardner Brothers have been right far more often than wrong about many great growth stocks, most notably (in my mind) AOL in the 1990s.

As for the ratings of stocks by Fools at the MF forums, that's a different tale. I found their disdain for Crocs quite baffling. In fact, MF gave CROX the not-so-esteemed title of "Worst Stock of 2007" at the beginning of the year.

But that's fairly old stuff. What caught my eye recently was a post at MF about one of their cherished 4-star rated stock, Volcom. Matt Koppenheffer insists that VLCM is worth buying here at a discount. This is more intriuguing to me than most comparisons because my nephew and I debated the merits of both Volcom recently when I did my monthly $100 stock purchase on his behalf.

My nephew is young, but he understands enough about fundamentals like profit margins, return on equity and total cash/debt to know how important they are. When he learned about Volcom's shrinking growth rate, he didn't hesitate for a second to shake his head and give Volcom, a company whose products he loves — I got a Volcom surfer wallet from him for Christmas — a clear No. The bad news from that conference call meant demoting VLCM from my B+ list down to a more pedestrian B. Though CROX is a meager 1-star pick by the Fools, for me, it remains an A- pick.

VLCM is up 4.6% today to $35.88. I agree with Koppenheffer that this is a solid company. But with so many great growth companies around, like Crocs and Apple, I wouldn't settle for Volcom. Until the Co figures out how to get back on the fast track, I'm staying out.

As of today, just for the Fools who diss CROX and applaud slowing VLCM, I'll start keeping track of the two head to head based on today's closing prices. I don't doubt that Volcom will rebound as it did starting last fall. I just don't see Crocs easing up growth anytime soon.

My nephew? He wound up choosing Under Armor (UA), a Co he's liked since he wore his first long-sleeved workout shirt.

Pupule Paul is long CROX and UA, and has no position in VLCM.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Volcom in my opinion will not be the first company supported for their name amongst the young only.