Thursday, July 19, 2007

Fools bearish on Hoku

Motley Fool is a source of broad financial information, an online educational niche like few others.

But lately, it seems that MF's sound, fundamental approach to analysis has teetered a bit. After all, MF missed the boat on Google. MF has also panned Crocs to no end. CROX is still a "one-star" stock by M-Foolers who collectively give companies ratings of 1 to 5 stars.

Today, MF writer Matt Koppneheffer explored a number of low-rated stocks, at least by their own brethren. Among them is Hoku Scientific (HOKU), which is up 6 cents for the day to $12.58 on miniscule volume, at least by recent trading standards.

For every reference to Hoku's enormous contracts, there are always bears who contend that the company is a "scam." In all likelihood, this won't change until that first contract is fulfilled and polysilicon is delivered. By then, every bear will turn into an apologist and claim that he covered his shorts and went long while HOKU was still at $12 or whatever the PPS will be when the polysilicon plant is completed in Pocatello, Idaho.

A lot of ifs in the air. Speculation has a place in a portfolio. With HOKU, it's a matter of how much risk you can bear until the first half of 2009.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is a teeny bit long HOKU.

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