Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Out of orbit?

11:23 am (Hawaii) Soon as Bill Griffith of CNBC passed along news of Orbitz's courthouse victory over American Airlines, the stock rocketed. It had already risen off its closing price of 2.21 and was in the 2.80 range. I deliberated and passed. Just don't know enough about that industry. But sure enough, it paused and ripped higher and higher going to 3.58 before pulling back.

The Fibonacci level on a retrace was 3.05, and that's precisely where OWW dipped. Unfortunately, I was occupied with work, so OWW bounced off 3.05 back up to 3.40 and has been leveling out since. Now at 3.22. I don't know if I'll try a small position at 3.05 or so, but it's not a horrible risk. This is a stock that started three years or so ago at 14 and found its level halfway down at 7, and has struggled since. This looks like the anti-PCLN. But at some point, profitable companies (is this one, I don't know) are worth more than $1 or $2 per share.

Tough call on where OWW goes tomorrow. Realistically, this would've been strictly a quick trade off the news had I stepped in at 2.80. I would've probably have sold around 3.30-3.40. A quick, decent profit. Everything else is too convoluted, too heavy and too much pain to deal with. How bad can a travel company be when Priceline has shown how it should be done? Anyone arguing that OWW should go back to $7 had better have some proof, especially with crude oil prices above $100/barrel and fewer dollars for travelers to spend.

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