Thursday, April 29, 2010

I approve of these

Vehicles for short-term trading

• AAPL. The next catalyst, 3G iPad, is near. Anticipation is there, though this is probably baked into the stock price. Nothing, though, would've indicated a month or two ago that the iPad absolutely would have the Apple store filled to the gills like it is — at least when I'm there.

So that's in a week or two. After that, nothing, really, until the new iPhone is launched this summer. So, any breakout above 271 has to be handled carefully. Maybe a move to 280, and then 271 would become a new support level. Maybe.

Would it come with the 3G iPad? Probably. If not, AAPL will likely continue trading in this 256-271 range.

• C. Definitely ranges between 4.30 and 5.05, give or take a few cents. Discard emotion and trade this vehicle like a machine.

• DNDN. Great day for all supporters of Dendreon and prostate cancer patients. But emotion has no stake in these new levels, 51-52. I first bought DNDN at 7, saw it sink to 4 with the FDA's rejection of Provenge in 2007. There must be some folks who had the same experience, but let their shares sit still for the past three years. Hat's off to them. Not touching DNDN here, though it could start moving again with any kind of partnership or takeover talk.

• F. Ford moved nicely today (2.5%) to 13.60. It's stabilized at 13 plus and worth exploring again as a swing trade.

• GS. Closed at 160 today, up from 152 earlier in the week during the public flogging by Congress. With interest rates still basically zero, GS and the banks are printing money, making easy profits. So why am I not in GS or C?

• IMAX. Not happy about this morning's blunder, but I am expecting a run to 23 or 24 as Iron Man 2 premiere day nears (May 7). This is not a long-ter hold for me. It's strictly in and out, maybe even from week to week. Buy Thursday or Friday; sell Monday. Rinse and repeat all of May and June.

• NFLX. Up to 103 today, but smells too much like Blue Nile to me in price action. Too much competition coming soon. A day trade at best.

• PCLN. Have never studied this.

• SBUX. Howard Schultz is king of all coffee. Missed this comeback.

Specs like JMBA and NBG are on the backburner. I'd love to toy with them, but I've got to make some solid profits first.

Allocation comfort zone

I'm almost 100% in equities right now. My game plan was to be out of IMAX and BIDU by the opening bell this morning. Fail.

I'd rather be in 60% cash (and still 40% long AAPL). I'm leaning toward short-term trades in stuff I can rely on, like AAPL. Speaking of which ...

Reliability ranking

Stocks that have both good growth and relative stability.

1. AAPL. New stores to open in Europe and China. Coolest products on Earth.
2. C. Pandit has cleaned house, cut toxic assets and plays the PR game astoundingly well.
3. F. On a roll. Earnings were superb. Mullaly is king.
4. GS. The worst is over. Higher-percentage move more likely in C, however.
5. BIDU. No real competition and serious China penetration is still in the early stage.

There are a ton of good stocks I don't mention. That's fine. I'm interested in narrowing down to a group of vehicles that I can get comfortable with and understand well. I don't need a list of 100 stocks to make a good profit every day. And when I'm interested in going outside the box, there are great traders with great ideas I can glance at.

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