Thursday, June 9, 2011

Smelled good

3:13 am (Hawaii) Just before Trichet spoke, FAZ bumped up to 50.46 premarket. Then he said, indirectly, that interest rates are going up this summer in Euro land. Exactly when, he won't say. Bullish, just a bit, for financials. Bad for FAZ. I got out of that trade. The idea wasn't bad, but the timing was horrible. Buying at a top (yesterday) is never good, even when it turns profitable. that just sets up the next top buy, and inevitably, buying at the top often enough leads to destruction. I lost $315 on that trade, a small number percentage-wise (well below 1%) of my modest roll. But I had to get out. There is no catalyst to get FAZ moving in premarket, and none once the bell — and the hyperspeed deep-galaxy alien machines — start humming.

FAZ can edge higher from here. I considered a partial sell. But the added risk on the downside wasn't worth it. Just not enough buying pressure yet, so it could easily fall below 50 or 45.50. Live to fight another day.

Update 3:22 am (Hawaii) 56% of my Regular watch list is green, 31% red. Spot Silver inching higher. Spot Gold in range. In a rut. CSTR is up 4% on news that it is opening more than 1,000 kiosks in Safeway stores. MWW (+3.3%), MOS (+2.3%), LULU (+2%) all up. TVIX (-3.3%), ONW (-2.3%) and ZSL (-1.7%).

Metals list is 56% green, 23% red. TRE (+2.5%), EXK (+2.1%), XG (+1.8%), AGQ (+1.7%), GPL (+1.6%) all benefitting from an overdue bounce in silver plays. How long will this last? Almost all silver plays are green.

ZSL (-1.6%), DBB (-1.3%), COPX (-1.1%), JJC (-1.1%) are at the bottom.

Update 3:44 am (Hawaii) FAZ just did a major melt up and mini crash. Went from 50.02 to 50.75 just seven minutes after the opening bell. Then fell to 50.30 in the next few minutes. Wild. Probably purely mechanical, but I wonder how much of it was raised to clear out positions for big money that bought in late yesterday near the top. Now at 50.36. Without any expected news for financials, it'll hover here.

Might be time for me to hit the sack again. That was a hell of a feeling to see it go back to my entry point. I could've broke even, in theory. Moving on...

Update 3:57 am (Hawaii) The fall for FAZ is fugly, from 50.75 to 49.58. Waterfall. Dead cat bounce for the finnies: WFC (+1.7%), C (+1.3%), GS (+1.2%) BAC (+1%), JPM (+1%). NBG (+2.3%) up, too. The only one on my list of banks in the red is IRE (-3.1%).

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