Steady, shiny and super

12:07 pm (Hawaii) As for those of us not ralphing due to large exposure to NFLX ...

I saw modest gains in my small positions in XG (+1.5% to 14.26) and DGP (+1.3% to 53.60). GSVC dropped 3.6% (to 16.57) and I'll look to add another tiny sliver if it falls below 16. The nature of dangerous, low-float stocks with robust potential can be spooky unless handled with the right level of exposure.

I slept through much of it, noticing AAPL's steady rise through a flat market. (All three indices were down.) AAPL touched 400 briefly and is at 399.20 afterhours. BIDU up 9.2% (+$14.25 to 168.18) today, up from 157 at the closing bell on huge earnings numbers. Somewhere, someone has a portfolio that is based exclusively on major growth numbers out of China. Apple. Baidu. China Mobile. Sina. That investor is making moola.

GOOG will never invade the Middle Kingdom. Big Brother will not allow it. The Baidu story has always been compelling, with its roots in US technology. But I wonder what Chinese company will copy Lululemon and explode through the market. Or is yoga frowned upon in China?

My Regular watch list is 42% green, 57% red. BIDU at the top, Orbitz (OWW) up 8% to 3.38. (I bought this at 3.45, sold at 2.35 months ago.) TVIX, VXX, TSO, WNR all up. TZA, too. FAZ finished up 2.4% to 44.86 after dropping from 45+. I don't have the will to buy FAZ here, even though I said I would like it below 49. Politicians are already dictating the price of precious metals. I guess I don't want to own another entity at their mercy.

Metals list is 42% green, 57% red. A rare occasion when both lists have the same numbers. No big gainers; SGOL (+3.1%), FSG (+2.6%), AGQ (+1.7%), DUST (+1.6%), XG (+1.5%). The bottom of the list: REE (-4%), PAAS (-3.6%), GPL (-2.8%), AVL (-2%).

Watched AGQ as often as I could between my zzz's. It was at 223+ before coming down to the 216-220 level for most of the day. The calm in the silver and gold markets after their initial gains early on was unusual. Not quite eerie, though. I wonder what Brother Turd Ferguson is surmising at this hour.

So, just 25 hours since I stepped forward and resumed my gradual buildup of PMs (I being the Falklands in terms of power and financial artillery), it's a slight win so far. My interest in silver is for the long term, but it never hurts to be ahead. I added more an hour before yesterday's Asia market resumed business (11 am Hawaii time) with spot at 40.17. It hit 41 today before pulling back to 40.39. I still see PMs rising at least until tomorrow, then pulling back when Boehner and Obama come to a compromise some time between Wednesday and next Monday (Aug 1).

Then, on a selloff in PMs, another buying opportunity will arise, possibly far below today's levels. If not, that would be fine, too. I'm not trying to get the exact bottom. That's too much to ask of any human being. It felt strange to buy physical in the 40s yesterday, but it was the right move for me.

As for Spot Gold, it hit 1622 early before declining to 1614, still at all-time high levels. Even Dennis Gartman admitted he stepped back into gold today after talking it down recently as an overcrowded trade. We're two sessions in since China's newest silver futures market opened shop. I wonder how much difference it is (or isn't) making.

Photo: 123rf.com

Somewhere, Whitney Tilson is smiling

11:30 am (Hawaii) NFLX closed the session at 281 and is now at 254 after hours. The company announced slowing growth due to rising costs during its earnings report press conference, and the stock is being bitch slapped across the room. Whitney Tilson and all the shorts were right, of course. Most of them, however, jumped off the short train at 100, 150, 200, 250. Tilson's reasoning was simple enough. How can a company that relied on virtually free content in its first few years maintain the same rate of growth having to pay hundreds of millions, for continued content acquisition?

Impossible. So, Netflix raised rates recently. Subscribers balked, canceling subs en masse. The collapse was due. Anybody who rode NFLX from 70 last year to almost 300 cannot possibly be a whiner. Looking forward, there's been talk about promising expansion in Central and South Americas. Okay. But how will that overcome rising competition from Apple and Amazon.

I don't think I ever traded NFLX, not being a subscriber and not knowing the joy (?) of low-price, unlimited access to content. Such is the nature of the beast. Yesterday, it was Blockbuster. Tomorrow, who knows? Here's how it shook out in February, when NFLX was at 222 and Tilson pulled out.

Midnight cinema & library

10:19 pm (Hawaii) Added a few dozen more links to reports, blogs, videos, vlogs and audio on the Weekend Cinema & Library page. Go here to see the (new) links.

Here goes the roller coaster

8:23 pm (Hawaii) I sorta expected some kind of news out of Washington tonight that both parties had mashed their puny brains together the past 48 hours to come up with some semblance of improvement in their negotiations over this debt ceiling issue. (I'd call it a disaster, but until China finally decides to get out of the dunking booth and put its big foot on our neck, it's "only" an issue.)

Apparently, Boehner went on air today and added fuel to the fire. Both sides are spewing fire, i.e. playing to the audience. Hey, free air time is free air time, especially with elections getting closer. It's not just Boehner, of course, but actually everyone in the House and Senate and White House who has yet to come out and articulate the honest truth. Well, actually, Ron Paul is the only guy who has consistently merited our collective attention for speaking without forked tongue.

Anyway, Spot Silver is 40.62, up a tidy sum from Friday's close of 40.07. Spot Gold is at 1616, up from Friday's close of 1600. Not a surprise with the post-market bickering of both President Obama and Boehner. So I'm taking this approach.

1. I waited until the hour before the Asian markets opened today to pick up more precious. I wanted both gold and silver, but with gold near an all-time high, plus the small positions of XG and DGP in my hand, I opted to acquire more physical silver. Besides, my physical stack is about 50-50, and I'd like to lean more toward the white metal in the long run, while price is still at this level. With spot at 40.17 before Asia opened, I was content. Not happy, but content, to increase my silver stack by roughly 55%.

2. If somehow Boehner and Obama find middle ground and happy talk of an agreement hits the market today or tomorrow, fine. I'm prepared to see PM prices slide, which will allow me to acquire more at cheaper prices: 35, 32 ... even 29 would be great. I've chiseled my way into physical and that approach has done well for me. Less pressure on trying to time things perfectly, and my average spot price entry has been around 34-36 for silver.

3. Probably — I put it at 75% — there will be no real progress on these talks until Wednesday at the earliest as both sides try to gauge where the public is throwing its support. If polls show that we are blaming one side or the other rather than blaming both, then that losing side will have to cave in quite a bit. Boehner is right that higher taxes will NOT help small businesses and lead to higher unemployment rates down the road. But I can't say I'd side with him, either. Whoever is calling the shots (in real terms) for the military will have to back down and get us out of these six wars before there is any sign of REAL progress in our debt crisis. Otherwise, it's all just chatter, a deal gets made by Aug 2 and life goes back to "normal."

4. Until an agreement is made, gold and silver climb. That's why it's key to keep an eye on price, maybe put in stop-loss orders (which I'm loathe to do) to protect profits. If this stretches out until next week Monday (Aug 1), that's great news for short-term gold and silver traders. So I plan to keep holding DGP and XG, and will likely trade AGQ and EXK in this scenario, with an itchy finger to get the heck out once a deal is made on Capitol Hill.

5. After the lovin ... when metal prices slide in the post-agreement ecstacy, I'll be looking for the bottom. Once stocks are done riding back up on this orgy of fake progress/kicking the can/expanding the credit-card line/drinking to sobriety, it will be time to load up on physical gold and silver like never before. Not you. I'm talking about me. I'll back up the truck and buy unprecedented amounts. Question is, will that discount price be silver at 40 (after a fall from 46 or 50)? Will that be gold at 1600 after a fall from 1650 or 1685?

Or will the fall in metals on the news of a debt ceiling agreement (and possible QE3 announcement) send PMs crashing through recent support? Will we see silver back at 32? Gold at 1490?

I'm prepared for any of these scenarios. (I may play ZSL short term in that stage of this crisis.) That's why I adhere to a slower approach rather than try to keep up with the space machines. I might miss that OTHER scenario, the one where Gold explodes without slowing for months, finally settling into a level around 1800 ... where silver erupts to 75 without a pause. It's possible, no question, though unlikely for the time being.

Long run, both metals go to new heights because there is no cure for the national debt crisis. The nation is already bankrupt. No question. There's no cure. War is not a cure. It's the big bully taking everyone's lunch money, but it's not a solution long term. If and when we overtake Libya (I have my doubts there), what's the first thing we seize? Oil? Sure. But I guarantee you we'll be even quicker to corral every ounce of gold in those banks.

Whether we like this policy or not, the byproduct will be far more talk about gold than we could have ever anticipated. It will continue to arise in every pocket of hostile activity near and far. Wherever the US Dollar declines, talk of gold will emerge. It's the history of civilization, just rewritten in a new chapter. I don't enjoy that prospect, but I don't expect to sit idly by and see my hard-earned dollars, few as they are, turn into pennies due to my own negligence.

After all, I can't claim ignorance any more. It's either take action or take a beating. I continue to take action. The sooner the mercenaries on Capitol Hill get an agreement together, the better. I want more physical cheap and I want it now. But I can wait. I'll have to.

Metal that arrived a couple of weeks ago. Some silver rounds and ASE proofs. Silver secures sound sleep.

Weekend cinema & library (Sun night update)

Maui Film Festival

12:53 pm (Hawaii) Mr. Obama isn't happy, not at all, with the posturing and grandstanding by both parties. Boehner walks, Obama calls the stubbornness "inexcusable" and the aftermarket is reacting. AAPL is down from 393+ to 391.00 in the past 30 minutes. AGQ has climbed from 215 to 217. DGP has climbed above 53 to 53.22. None of this is on huge volume; short-term traders made their adjustments.

Longer term, the deal gets done by those wacky politicos. Longest term, the dollar melts down to nothing, a new currency backed by some combination of commodities arises, and those long physical metal survive intact.

Video
(new) RT: Max Keiser: Obama financially lynched by a racist GOP (July 24)

MSNBC: Debt deal still in limbo (July 24)

Reuters: Obama prepared for 'tough choices' on debt (July 22)
CNBC: President Obama: Debt and the economy (July 22)
CNBC: Investing in gold (July 22)

Reuters: Gold going up - Reuters precious metals poll (July 22)

Bloomberg: US dollar coins deserted as debt burdens Congress (July 22)
Reuters: Verizon misconnects with iPhone (July 22)
Yahoo: 5 consequences if America doesn't raise the debt ceiling (July 22)
Yahoo: David Walker's plan to 'restore fiscal sanity' (July 22)
CNBC: IPO insiders and On the Radar (July 22)
CNBC: Pigskin playbook (July 22)
CNBC: Recycled stocks with Herb Greenberg (July 22)
CNBC: The China stock boost (July 22)
CNBC: Reality check: Borders (July 22)
CNBC: Cashing out at Coinstar? (July 22)
Reuters: European Goldfields chairman on new permit, gold price (July 19)
> CEO expects $1,750/oz in gold soon
Bloomberg: Buffett says 'bet heavily' against double recession (July 8)
Bloomberg: Data mining: Twitter, Facebook and beyond (June 16)
Bloomberg: Social media: Connecting to customers (Mar 31)

Vlogs
(new) SGTbull07: Bill Still, part 1: 'A gold-backed world is a terrible mistake' (July 24)

(new) SGTbull07: Bill Still, part 2: Debt-free govt-issued money = sovereignty (July 24)

(new) stellaconcepts: My thoughts on Hong Kong silver exchange (July 24)

(new) Bill Still: US Debt Limit (July 24)

(new) endlessmountain: A year and a half ago (July 24)

(new) endlessmountain: Fibonacci retracement, part 2 (July 24)

(new) george4title: Natural sustainable living (July 24)

(new) george4vlogging: Re: Becoming a ghost (July 24)

(new) PastorDowell: Silver, real historical news site, prepare, position (July 24)

(new) Alexiscom1: US debt, Greece debt, yuan, China, oil, gas prices (July 24)

(new) RonnieSooner: 3 reasons to start your home garden (July 24)

(new) silverfuturist: Silver to make a move soon? (July 23)

(new) ScrapGoldBusiness: Video 1 (July 23)

(new) endlesssmountain: Leveraged ETFs - How your portfolio would look in constant shorts (July 23)

(new) TheWeeklyTelegram: Silver target: $250-750 per ounce (July 23)

(new) NewAmericaNow: Monsters of Anarchy - Post-Collapse Security Considerations (July 23)

(new) wafdawg: Gold Silver GSAT (July 22)

(new) visionvictory: An honest look at the debt ceiling debate (July 22)

(new) stellaconcepts: The next big investment after silver (July 22)

(new) SGTbull07: Alert: Money magazine overt subliminal 2: Gold is Money! (July 22)

(new) streetmoney21: Silver set for a nice jump as Congress finishes a 3-legged dog & pony show (July 22)

(new) BrotherJohnF: Silver update - Debt ceiling charade (July 22)

(new) drutter: Forty freaking dollar silver! (July 22)

(new) proteanview: Fear Factor (July 22)

(new) ScrapGoldBusiness: Out on a limb: My gold and silver predictions (July 22)
> "What happens if the Dow goes to 7,000? Where does that leave gold and silver?"

(new) SilverMapleLeafs: Where in Utah can I use my silver? (July 22)

bigdad06: Checkmate! (July 22)

(new) 1beinki: Interim president Tim Turner, update on Republic (July 22)
endlessmountain: The Silver Log - week end (July 22)
endlessmountain: Fibonacci retracement - intro (part 1) (July 22)

Alexiscom1: Silver report (July 22)

SilverGoldSilver: NIA's GRO trading (July 22)

VictoryIndependence: You are running out of time, fiat currency collapse will be epic! (July 22)

Randytooth: Time to flip silver for gold? (July 22)

TheWeeklyTelegram: Silver manipulation stories getting out of control (July 22)

Wide Awake News: Burning collapse (July 21)
Kitco: David Morgan on the Utah Coin Act (July 20)
Larry Edelson: Huge trap? (July 19)
> Edelson: Silver drop to 26-30 may coincide with agreement on debt ceiling; blue-chip stocks will behave like commodities; positioned to buy below Dow 12,000 because 15,000 is coming
Sean Brodrick: This metal is outperforming gold 3-to-1 (July 19)
> Brodrick: Silver a buy on pending debt ceiling pullback
Tony Sagami: Seoul, Korea: The first stop on my Asian profit hunt (July 16)

Bill Still: Iceland, Ireland (June 22)

(new) SHINOBIKAGE: How much silver is enough? (Apr 24)

2minstral: Crash of the monetary system, war and a choice (Nov 28 2010)

GoldSilverMedia: Gold dinar and silver dirham (Aug 1 2010)

GoldSilverMedia: Bill Murphy (GATA testifies to CFTC (part 1) (part 2) (Mar 25 2010)

(new) GoldMoneyNews: James Turk GATA 2008

Audio
(new) King World News: Weekly Metals Wrap (July 23)

(new) King World News: Pierre Lassonde (July 23)

(new) King World News: Peter Schiff (July 23)

(new) King World News: Rick Santelli (July 22)

(new) King World News: John Embry (July 20)

(new) King World News: James Turk (July 19)

Reports

(new) Israeli National News: France ends ban on arms trade with Israel (July 24)

Business Insider: EU debt restructuring leads to bailout euphoria, silver to double to $100, says Citigroup (July 22)

CNBC: House speaker Boehner withdraws from debt talks (July 22)

Bloomberg: Boehner says debt deal 'not close' (July 22)
Bloomberg: Default now or suffer a more expensive crisis later: Ron Paul (July 22)
Bloomberg: Apple said to consider making an offer for Hulu (July 22)
ABC: Oslo explosionn: 7 dead as pair of blasts rocks Norway govt buildings (July 22)
AP: Apple considering Hulu bid (July 22)

Bloomberg: Silver may rebound to test $100 level, Citigroup says (July 21)
Reuters: Asian investors stricken by gold fever on record price (July 21)
The Telegraph: 34,000 police jobs to be axed (July 21)
Wall Street Journal: Millennials make millions (July 21)
> myYearbook.com sells for $100 million in cash, stock
AP: US mulls sanctions against Iceland (July 20)

Forbes: Gold is truth, unchained CPI leads to a dog-food diet (July 20)
Main Street: A world without Apple (July 19)

Blogs
(new) King World News: Louise Yamada: Expect $85 silver, tremendous inflation (July 25)

(new) Zero Hedge: China, Iran to bypass dollar, plan oil barter system (July 24)

(new) SilverGoldSilver: Peru mining update (July 23)

(new) David DeGraw: Homeland Security Alert: Paulson enters deficit talks (July 23)

(new) Turd Ferguson: Ultraviolet (July 22)

Le Fly: 60% cash (July 22)

Turd Ferguson: Quick update (July 22)
Jeb Handwerger: The Greek canary sings: Are gold, silver investors listening? (July 22)
Arthur M.M. Krolman: Accidentally conceived in 1971, gold money baby now due (July 22)
Vedran Vuk: An undercurrent to gold? (July 22)
Jeff Clark: Amazon vs. City Hall (July 22)
Mike Larson: Don't ignore the fact that financial stocks are tanking (July 22)
Przemyslaw Radomski: Where is the precious metals sector headed now? (July 22)
Keith Fitz-Gerald: China's new futures market bullish for silver prices (July 22)
Economic Free Fall: Dollar, gold and silver (July 22)
Golden Truth: The truth about gold is seeping into mainstream media (July 22)
Gold Report: Bob Moriarty: Triple-digit returns predicted (July 22)
> Moriarty: Risk of deflation is enormous, gold could drop to $500/oz, but might buy 10 times as much as it does at $1,600/oz.

Bill Bonner: Debts make a deal (July 22)

Addison Wiggin: The path to debt in America (July 22)

Bill Bonner: 100 basis points to Armageddon (July 22)

(new) Michael Pento: Debt Ceiling Myths (July 21)

Bill Bonner: The costs of printing money (July 21)

Addison Wiggin: The gold-oil ratio and other reasons gold is still a buy (July 21)

Joel Bowman: The trickiest characteristic of sound money (July 21)

Clif Droke: The debt crisis and the war cycle (July 21)

> Hoskins: "When we run into a big problem with money, what do we always do in a usury system? We go to war."

Ben Traynor: Debt vs. Gold: The hidden link explained (July 20)

Blog commentary (good stuff by readers)
PandaLiberator: While I'd love to see Asia... (July 22)
DarkPurpleHaze: Full blown FUBM going on (July 22)

Metal Porn

(new) ScrapGoldBusiness: Hopi jewelry I'm selling for spot (July 24)

999silverhk: 20個裝奧地利維也納銀幣Austrian Philharmonic Silver Coins (July 23)

(new) scottsdalesilver: Academy silver bars (10 troy ounce) (May 19 2010)

RockStar1nMyCar: Gold bullion collection Pamp Suisse gold (Mar 2 2010)

(new) scottsdalesilver: PAMP Suisse gold bars (Dec 15 2009)

RockStar1nMyCar: My silver bullion collection Pt. 2 (Oct 22 2009)

(new) scottsdalesilver: 'One' - 1 oz silver bar (Sept 6 2009)

scottsdalesilver: Scottsdale Stacker silver bar (Aug 13 2009)

RockStar1nMyCar: My silver bullion collection (Aug 5 2009)

markapsolon: Spare Change Ep 6: American Silver Eagle coins & bullion (June 16 2009)

markapsolon: Spare Change Ep 4: Coin collecting Franklin half dollars (silver) (May 19 2009)

markapsolon: Spare Change Ep 1: Apmex's gold and silver coins and bullion (Mar 3 2009)

Photo: Lahainashores.wordpress.com

Dogs, ponies or the Future

10:01 am (Hawaii) Doubled my tiny position in GSVC. Where it is today or next week is not my concern. I'm looking six months, one year, two years down the line.

Holding DGP and XG for the long term, as well. Silver, I'm learning toward acquiring more physical here since it takes awhile to receive and I want to minimize the chances of any of the mints canceling on me if and when there's a run to physical if SHTF in the next week or two. If there is a selloff, as expected, I don't mind paying current price for physical. I can always use some fiat to buy silver paper for the ride back up and buy more physical at a discount.

That dip in AGQ last week to 172? That was with spot silver at 38+. Spot at 35? Ouch. That would send AGQ back to 160, 150. That dip this week from 223 to 195 in two days? It'll happen in the blink of an eye if and when Congress is done with the grandstanding and signs on with the compromise.

Though today's indices were generally flat, big gains on Wednesday and Thursday demonstrate that a lot of the fears over the debt ceiling have waned. So, maybe my expectations of PM decline in the near term are excessive. But I won't be touching AGQ above 195. I refused to touch FAZ above 49, and it's struggling to get above 44 with the recent gains of banksters. FAZ isn't a horrible price here, but the only thing that will overcome the balance-sheet BS of these crooks are visuals. Video of riots. Violence in the streets. Blood on the pavement. That's the thing that will send stock prices of banksters into the gutters. It's too much to expect right now. That's why physical silver and gold are a better play, just one reason.

Even GSVC, with its 225,000 shares in Facebook, has great upside — secondary offering and all — at this level. I don't know if it will do a CMGI-like rise to 100, but it's possible. A collapse to 10 is possible, too. But I like my odds here with a small slice of my roll better than tossing dice in Vegas. Oh yeah.

Final note: With the indices mixed, my Metals list was 75% green today, and volume was fairly good. Most issues were slightly down from yesterday's volume, but not significantly. AGQ (+3.9%), XG (+3.5%), PSLV (+2.8%), SLW (+2.7%), REE (+2.6%) led the pack. A lot of action for silver plays, but again, I'm cautious about a tumble following action in D.C.

photo: Actiongirls.com

2 Minute Warning

9:54 am (Hawaii) Just a few minutes before the market closes for the week. Tempting to ride the momentum in precious metals over the weekend, but — whether I agree or not — general consensus seems to be that if the debt ceiling issue is resolved soon, PMs will take a hit ... then rally as usual due to the fallacy of Congress' efforts.

So wouldn't it be better to wait for a profound selloff in metals? Sure, Spot Silver could get kneecapped from 40 to 35 overnight. Maybe lower. My guess is the drop would be 7-8%, not 12-15%, simply because the short-term proposal/compromise does nothing to heal the $14 trillion wound our nation continues to suffer from. There are no lenders of large capital, and even if there were, long term we'd still be fucked.

So perhaps I'll inch into a little more of this or that — GSVC at 17 or wait for a possible market crash this summer that takes it to 10? — with these last two minutes.