Friday, July 22, 2011

Dogs, ponies or the Future

10:01 am (Hawaii) Doubled my tiny position in GSVC. Where it is today or next week is not my concern. I'm looking six months, one year, two years down the line.

Holding DGP and XG for the long term, as well. Silver, I'm learning toward acquiring more physical here since it takes awhile to receive and I want to minimize the chances of any of the mints canceling on me if and when there's a run to physical if SHTF in the next week or two. If there is a selloff, as expected, I don't mind paying current price for physical. I can always use some fiat to buy silver paper for the ride back up and buy more physical at a discount.

That dip in AGQ last week to 172? That was with spot silver at 38+. Spot at 35? Ouch. That would send AGQ back to 160, 150. That dip this week from 223 to 195 in two days? It'll happen in the blink of an eye if and when Congress is done with the grandstanding and signs on with the compromise.

Though today's indices were generally flat, big gains on Wednesday and Thursday demonstrate that a lot of the fears over the debt ceiling have waned. So, maybe my expectations of PM decline in the near term are excessive. But I won't be touching AGQ above 195. I refused to touch FAZ above 49, and it's struggling to get above 44 with the recent gains of banksters. FAZ isn't a horrible price here, but the only thing that will overcome the balance-sheet BS of these crooks are visuals. Video of riots. Violence in the streets. Blood on the pavement. That's the thing that will send stock prices of banksters into the gutters. It's too much to expect right now. That's why physical silver and gold are a better play, just one reason.

Even GSVC, with its 225,000 shares in Facebook, has great upside — secondary offering and all — at this level. I don't know if it will do a CMGI-like rise to 100, but it's possible. A collapse to 10 is possible, too. But I like my odds here with a small slice of my roll better than tossing dice in Vegas. Oh yeah.

Final note: With the indices mixed, my Metals list was 75% green today, and volume was fairly good. Most issues were slightly down from yesterday's volume, but not significantly. AGQ (+3.9%), XG (+3.5%), PSLV (+2.8%), SLW (+2.7%), REE (+2.6%) led the pack. A lot of action for silver plays, but again, I'm cautious about a tumble following action in D.C.


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