Monday, January 14, 2008

Top 25: Ins and Outs

Tonight's look at the Pupule Top 25 stocks. Though the market bounced and tech rose, volume in Apple, Google an RIMM were lower. Not a convincing tape.

1. AAPL 178.78 +6.09 (+3.5%) | 50-day SMA: 182.11 | 100-day SMA: 168.23
Up on lower volume. Not exactly bullish. MacWorld gives Apple plenty of juice, but unless the Fed energizes the market, APPL will sell off before MacWorld is done. Fed eases, AAPL could explode going into earnings on Jan. 22.
2. GOOG 653.82 +15.57 (+2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 680.24 | 100-day SMA: 629.93
Jon Najarian says Google will move more than Apple short term.
3. RIMM 96.35 +2.65 (+2.8%) | 50-day SMA: 109.92 | 100-day SMA: 104.60 | 200-day SMA: 81.73
Absolutely abused by the street.
4. NTDOY.PK 69.86 +1.11 (+1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 72.23 | 100-day SMA: 68.87
Not a bargain anymore, but definitely a decent price.
5. POT 150.12 +11.37 (+8.2%) | 50-day SMA: 126.29
Even on down days, Potash gained nicely. There's something explosive in that fertilzer.

6. CHL 84.21 -0.86 (-1.0%) | 50-day SMA: 88.05 | 100-day SMA: 83.77
Still a fair price.
7. PTR 173.00 -1.04 (-0.6%) | 50-day SMA: 190.48 | 100-day SMA: 187.59 | 200-day SMA: 159.72
Not ultra cheap, but well below its 100-day SMA. China's appetite for oil hasn't changed.
8. FSLR 224.76 +3.76 (+1.7% | 50-day SMA: 224.67
The window for a fair price on First Solar is slipping away. That was quick.
9. MCD 54.96 +0.64 (+1.2%) | 50-day SMA: 58.55 | 100-day SMA: 55.74 | 200-day SMA: 52.19
Yesterday's selloff on huge volume (more than 30 million shares) was filthy and disgusting, but it gave longs a chance to get more shares at a cheap price. Still cheap here.
10. STP 70.22 +3.41 (+5.1%) | 50-day SMA: 73.39 | 100-day SMA: 57.32
Alternative energy in China will be a prince (crude oil is king), and Suntech Power fits the throne nicely.

11. ISRG 265.69 +3.50 (+1.3%) | 50-day SMA: 307.62 | 100-day SMA: 275.93 | 2004. ISRG 265.69 +3.50 (+1.3%) | 50-day SMA: 307.62 | 100-day SMA: 213.54
Intuitive Surgical's growth could be tempered.
12. CMG 116.77 +0.07 (+0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 134.25 | 100-day SMA: 125.30 | 200-day SMA: 103.69
I prefer McDonald's as a fast-food play, but Chipotle has plenty of growth ahead.
13. BIDU 340.40 +11.15 (+3.4%) | 50-day SMA: 365.50 | 100-day SMA: 323.35
One of the few techs on my list that had increased volume today.
14. FWLT 141.17 -0.41 (-0.3%) | 50-day SMA: 149.94 } 100-day SMA: 141.09
Low volume for Foster Wheeler. Almost cheap here.
15. FLS 91.60 +0.95 (+1.0%) | 50-day SMA: 93.25 } 100-day SMA: 84.30
Miniscule volume today. Caution.

16. FMCN 55.44 +0.49 (+0.9%) | 50-day SMA: 56.59 | 100-day SMA: 53.88
Smallish volume, price barely decent.
17. GS 201.65 +2.91 (+1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 213.87 | 100-day SMA: 210.97 | 200-day SMA: 211.82
Goldman Sachs still cheap after rising for four days in a row. Declining volume, however, should slow the momentum soon.
18. NKE 60.73 +0.03 (+0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 63.72 | 100-day SMA: 61.34 | 200-day SMA: 58.07
Lower volume today. I like Nike long term.
19. CEO 178.25 -0.92 (-0.5%) | 50-day SMA: 173.38
More explosive than PetroChina, but too pricey here.
20. VMW 82.24 +4.71 (+6.1%) | 50-day SMA: 88.98 | 100-day SMA: 88.27
VMware's rally continues, but tiny volume is not promising.

21. LULU 34.48 +1.41 (+4.3%) | 50-day SMA: 41.97 | 100-day SMA: 42.16
Ridiculous selloff despite lululemon's robust report last quarter. I do not buy the notion that the 18-35 female demographic has suddenly stopped buying workout (yoga) apparel.
22. MSFT 34.39 +0.48 (+1.4%) | 50-day SMA: 34.66 | 100-day SMA: 32.23
Not cheap here.
23. AMZN 82.87 +1.79 (+2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 87.33 | 100-day SMA: 87.83 | 200-day SMA: 76.76
Amazon is cheap here. In Bezos we trust.
24. EBAY 29.23 -0.45 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 32.76 | 100-day SMA: 34.93 } 200-day SMA: 34.12
A seriously ugly chart. The selloff since 34 also occurred after the 50- and 200-day SMA crossed.
25. LFC 73.39 +0.18 (+0.3%) | 50-day SMA: 80.85 | 100-day SMA: 82.74 | 200-day SMA: 67.39
China Life Insurance looks cheap here. Today's gain on tiny volume shows a lack of conviction on both sides.

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