Friday, April 30, 2010

Freaked-out Friday

Dow 11,008 -158 (1.4%), Nas 2,461 -58 (-2%), S&P 1,186 -20 (-1.7%).


Greece, Goldman Sachs, Gulf oil spills. Market got toppy and barfed. All day.


DNDN held on to most of its gains and closed at 54.06 (day high 57.67), up 3.88 (+7.7%). FAZ up 0.82 (+7.2%) to 12.20.


Even NBG held on for a teeny gain of 1 cent to 3.26. All other financials bombed. Goldman Sachs cratered to 145.20 (-15.04, -9.4%). They're still in a zero interest environment like any other bank or financial. Come earnings day in a couple of months, GS will blow it out. But this isn't the time to get in, not yet. That day might be a move from 125 to 150.


So why do I hold BIDU and IMAX? I can withstand the near-term shelling. BIDU (688) will zig and zag until the next catalyst, but they're still the emperor and the only royalty in China search. Float is still scant until the split in few weeks.


IMAX had very little buying help today. I theorize that today was a pocket between earnings and the upcoming giant releases (Iron Man 2, etc.), and buyers held on to their recent profits rather than dive into a hellhole today. Smart. We're getting past a lot of heavy issues. The fog may clear by Monday. Or will it be Wednesday?


I would've been smart with proper execution on Thursday morning (premarket). But I forked up, missed my window. The selling opportunity was there before IMAX announced earnings. I was crashed out. One of the challenges of being in the middle of the Pacific and trading from 2 to 10 a.m.. I've stocked up on energy drinks since.


Today, BIDU was actually up to 716 and hovered at 710 while the rest of the market was in the early stage of tankage today. The spooky thing, of course, is that BIDU's gap up from 620 to 710 this week could get filled at some point. I don't believe all gaps necessarily have to be filled, though.


Bottom line is I'm holding both. It's like the old saying: sell early or not at all. They'll be back in spite of my crappy loss-cutting discipline.


AAPL (261.09, -7.55, -2.8%) shed all of its gains from Thursday and is tilting toward the bottom of its near-term range. If it can hold that 256 area, that's relatively cheap. Greece and Portugal and Spain might spin into economic chaos, but oil drilling issues are under a microscope. I don't see more spills coming with the global media and superpowers addressing the cleanup in the Gulf. The Goldman problem will linger, but they're in no danger of closing shop. There will be scrutiny, who knows, maybe a few convictions. But that'll bring discount prices, maybe bargain prices to the financial sector.


Citigroup closed at its low for the day, 4.37 (-0.19, -4.2%). That's normally a great buying opportunity at this level.


Monday will be intriguing for DNDN traders. Is there any short interest left after today? That'll provide us outsiders some entertainment value.


But the past few days have been a painful lesson in the importance of execution and staying in cash through market chaos. Opportunities in financials and DNDN were available this week. It's not about the specific stock; it's about timing. It's not who, but when.


My when has been forked up the past few days. We need someone or something to rescue this market.


Iron Man, save us.


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