Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Stampede Tuesday

Dow Jones 10,404.77 +213.88 (+2.1%)
NASDAQ 2,305.88 +61.92 (+2.76%)
S&P 500 1,115.23 +25.60 (+2.35%)

Huge move today, and though volume is still tepid, it was bigger than yesterday. I'm not a believer in this rally, but there's no point to fighting momentum. Didn't the spring rally continue for months despite lame volume? There's money to be made in both directions.

Nat Gas extremely impressive today, even as BP rallied in the afternoon. Of the 40 natty gassers on my list, 39 finished positive. They averaged a 3.59% gain today, absolutely, undeniably hot. As a group, they have moved up 13.97% since Obama's clean energy speech 12 days ago.

WPRT (19.42), one of my five favorites, moved up 2.29% today — a bit soft compared to the sector — but is now up 32.2% since Obama's talk. Insanely bullish.

GDP (15.29) is up 27.1% during this span, including 4.01% today. KWK (13.81) is up 23.3% since Obama and HERO (3.19) is up 23.17%, including 13.12% today alone. Small floats and daytrading frenzy are factors here, which is why I'll try WPRT rather than HERO.

CLNE (18.17) is up 6.97% today and 22.39% since Obama. WPRT and CLNE are solid fundamentally and both are pure clean energy plays. Another reason to like.

UNG feels safe, but the move from 8 flat to 8.83 in the past week is amazing. UNG now up 17.89% since Obama, including 3.27% today.

BP gained 2.38% to 31.40 and USO is up 2.62% to 35.23. USO down to 34.66 in afterhours trading. SCO, the inverse oil ETN, dropped 4.62% as crude prices rose to $76/barrel.

CBOE is trading at 32.56 in afterhours, looking like the hottest initial public offering of the year. If Goldman Sachs is propping up the market to support the four IPOs it is unveiling this week, be careful once the propping is done. CBOE's 14% gain is great for the big boys, and they'll cash in while the rest of us think we're walking into a winner.

Speaking of GS, it gained 2.59% to 136.90. That made yesterday's buyers at 133-134 quite happy. C gained 2.84% to 3.99, and Euro banks also gained. STD (11.19 7.08%) has made a great move up since dropping below 10. IRE is up 6.42% to 4.31 and NBG is up 3.29% to 2.51.

FAS tore up 6.88% to 24.04. I still don't trust financials, but the volatility and high-percentage moves are making some fast money for fast traders. I wouldn't short finnies here, either. FAZ lost 6.74% to 14.27. There are numerous stories of an ominous future for finnies. They're not all fiction, no doubt, but as irrational exuberance returns to the market, traders don't care about tomorrow. They're banking on finnies and wild momo swings led by the high-frequency robots.

FXE (123.07) up almost 1% today while the dollar (UUP) dropped. FXI gained 2.29% to 41.03. Everything's headline-driven. Not my cup of tea, but watching these as indicators.

FCX gained 2.74% to 67.05 and US Steel (X) rose 3.03% to 45.91. Wow. As China goes, so go copper and steel. SLV gained 1.85% to 18.19 for good measure.

My favorite company, Apple, continues to rebound from last week's plunge to 242. AAPL closed near its high at 259.69, a gain of 2.13%. GOOG rose 3.06% to 497.99. I liked GOOG below 490, but didn't touch it.

NFLX, a wild gainer recently, pared back 2.61% to 123.50.

GLD climbed 1.16% to 120.99 and TLT dropped 0.41% to 96.51. A massive bull rally and TLT dropped fractionally. That's weird. Probably says something about the cautious nature of retail traders. Nobody wants to get burned by another Flash Crash or any kind of crash.

Can this rally run for two, three months like the previous run? Probably not. A lot of short leashes out there. Fear reigns, even in the bulls. But the shorts are clearly getting hammered lately.

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