Thursday, September 29, 2011

Greek party mode

10:12 am (Hawaii) Regular watch list 49% up, 50% down, 1% neutral. Apple -1.5% to 390+. Former high flyers are down. YOKU -18.3%. NFLX -11.2%. BIDU -9.2%. SINA -9.2%. Top gainers in the Regular list: FAS +7.6%, AGQ +7%, UCO +4.6%, PSLV +4.2%, BBEP +4%, C +3.8%, GNK 3.6%, SLV +3.4%, X +2.8%, SWY +2.8%, GE +2.6%.

US Steel? This smells like a dead cat bounce.

FAZ at 60.37 afterhours, touching the lower line of its near-term pennant. Still right about in the center of its megaphone longer term. 

FAZ (daily) filling the near-term pennant, soon to go ... where? 

The Debt Spiral list was all green except for FAZ: SCGLY +9.8%, FAS +7.4%, MS +6.6%, DB +6.5%, STD +6.3%, BBVA +6%, RBS +4.8%, IRE +4.8%, C +3.9%, BAC +3.7%, GS +3.7%, JPM +3%, HBC +2.5%, NBG +1.5%, AIG +0.8%. All of Euroland is ecstatic that the party isn't over yet. 

Was this actually the day to go long financials? Could be in the near term. But I think this is a champagne, pop-the-cork moment for finnies. Temporary. A lot of getting drunk, patting backs and double kiss on the cheek hellos. It won't last. Real money has to come from somewhere real, and printing fake money (fiat) isn't going to cut it for much longer. Real production? Not in the US or Euroland. The puppeteers sent jobs elsewhere. 

Today's German parliament vote was a measure to delay the inevitable. Will the people of Germany vote out these politicians who have put the people's savings on the chopping block? Is it their duty to save dysfunctional neighbors? 

FAZ now at 59.94 (10:36 am HST), running with momentum to the downside, opposite of yesterday's afterhours trading. I know what I did wrong yesterday (not selling most/all of the position into strength above 65). I know what I did wrong today (not selling most/all of the position into strength above 65). Taking the belief and logic, not just emotion, out of trading is difficult. Boil it down to basic elements, and it's about price. Sell above 65, buy below 60. Or wait for a bargain at 55 or lower.

New mantra: Less chatter, more price discipline. 

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