Monday, July 30, 2007

Studying Solar: First Solar

Can Yingli Green Energy or any other solar Co take a First Solar type of rocket ride?

FSLR went from $27 in January to a recent high of $119. At a current PPS of $110, FSLR has a market cap of $8 billion with a P/E of 479, forward P/E of 95 and a whopping PEG rate of 3.10.

Unbelievably, FSLR has revenue of just $188 million, lower than Yingli. The company raised $1 billion recently in a secondary offering at a price of $107 per share. The offering is a huge boost, obviously.

One of the biggest differences between First Solar and Yingli is quarterly revenue growth. FSLR's rate is 391%. The Co has $324 million in cash and total debt of $95 million. Positive. Though there are 73 million shares outstanding, only 18 million are in the float.

Forbes.com reported that CEO Michael Aheam and members of the Walton family have filed with the SEC to sell shares. Aheam plans to sell roughly 15% of his holdings, while the Waltons will sell about 10% of their stake. The Waltons own 53% of the Co.

Tomorrow is a big day for First Solar. Earnings will be out and expectations hover around 7 or 8 cents per share. Short interest is 18%. The narrowest miss could send FSLR for a slide, so I don't anticipate buying shares until after tomorrow.

It's certainly a lot of information to absorb for a solar ignoramus like me. Is FSLR's dedication to cadmium telluride — less efficient yet more affordable than silicon — the wave of the future? The market says yes. What makes this a little more interesting for me is that I've been highly interested in Hoku Scientific, a company that is planning to build a facility in Idaho for polysilicon production.

Yingli, First Solar, Hoku. Being a lifelong resident of Hawaii — I've never understood why solar energy was never a focal point here — the sector is nothing short of fascinating to me now.

Pupule Paul has no position in YGE and FSLR, but is a bit long HOKU.

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