Wednesday, August 1, 2007

Some cheese with this whine

Welcome to the Bitch & Moan portion of today's posts. Yes, a little venting is good for the overall health. That would be wine. Not so much the cheese. All the great-tasting stuff is bad for you.

I begin my rant with my beloved Nintendo (NTDOY.PK). Today, the stock sank with the rest of the Tokyo market. Well, not to the bottom, but dropping $3 to $58.75 sucks. When I bought more shares at $62, it was with the long term in mind. Still is.

I just wish I'd waited a day or so. The blow wasn't too bad. I rolled with it because late last night, I saw the stock in Tokyo peeling back 3%. Maybe I'll buy more tomorrow.

Garmin (GRMN) beat earnings expectations, as I expected. Did I get shares before the fact? No. And I regret it. That's what I get for not studying this Co much more in recent months. GRMN closed at $83 yesterday. From Reuters writer Purwa Khandelwal:

Investors had been optimistic that Garmin might beat expectations, but it topped even the most bullish outlooks.

"(The company) reported even more upside than we had expected and easily surpassed our read on 'whisper' expectations," Rob Sanderson, an analyst with American Technology Research, said in an e-mail to Reuters.

Second-quarter earnings were 98 cents a share, versus market expectations of 74 cents a share.

Revenue rose 72 percent to $742 million, boosted by a doubling in revenue from its automotive/mobile segment and a 59 percent rise in revenue from the marine business.


Garmin also raised expectations and increased the dividend from $.50 to $.75. There is a strong possibility that the Co will buy Navteq; no comment yet from the Co. The CC was at 11 a.m. Eastern today, and the stock opened at $90 today. It's currently at $93 in after hours. Waah.

First Solar (FSLR) took a major hit yesterday with a sub-par earnings report, at least in terms of slowing growth. The stock ran from $120 mid-day to $98 in after hours. However, FSLR bounced back and closed today at $107.

As MC Hammer said, can't touch this.

Why is Amazon (AMZN) still dropping? The stock sank to $75 today before closing at $77. All because of what? Profit taking? Sure. Barron's negative piece? Probably. I have no AMZN, so I should count my blessings and look for an entry point.

Crocs hit $60 yesterday, closed at $59, and is down to $58 today. Is the short squeeze over? I doubt it. We'll see after August expiry just what happens with a stock that has 32% short interest. Besides, the stock actually dipped early in the day to $56 and change, and then recovered quickly.

This is one of the companies that has raised guidance for Q3. Since the eve of recent earnings release, when CROX traded at $50, the stock is up 16%. That's hefty. I am not going to whine. That would be a sign of greed.

I got in at $40, $50 and $57, and CROX keeps going up. Nope, no complaints here.

Focus Media (FMCN) has returned to its downslide. The stock lost more than a buck and closed at $40.08 today. I know the hearing with Nasdaq is coming, and that these kind of things take time. Is FMCN a steal at this level? Of course. But I ain't messing with a buy. Dendreon (DNDN) has already given me enough headaches with anything to do with higher-ups (SEC) and off-field crap (lawsuits up the okole).

Yingli Green Energy (YGE) continues to tease and taunt me. The stock was up just a bit today after hitting $18-plus earlier in the week. Though I see limitations — the Co has exposure only in Western China to go with off-shore contracts — it is still an undervalued alternative energy play in a fast-growing region of the free economy. I still don't view YGE as a better growth Co than Suntech (STP), but YGE may have a nicer growth spurt ahead.

This is a lot of bitching and moaning, I know. But I'll leave you with one happy ending (for the day). My nephew's pick, Under Armor, keeps climbing. Whether it's the awesome earnings report or 50% short interest, UA is up to $64 now. Guess that makes up for my ineptitude on GRMN and NTDOY.PK.

With the choppy market, I should anticipate more of the same. Then again, earnings reports are almost all out, so we may settle into a lull. Finally.

Pupule Paul is long NTDOY.PK, CROX and FMCN.

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