Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Tepid Tuesday

Dow Jones 10,293.52 -148.89 -1.43%
NASDAQ 2,261.80 -27.29 -1.19%
S&P 500 1,095.31 -17.89 -1.61%

I'll say it again: this is a market that can have traders sprinting on those mouse wheels like a treadmill all morning and afternoon. It can also be an opportunity to shut the computer down, take a ride and enjoy some sunshine and pristine waters at the local beach. In my case, there are many choices. An hour just chilling in the water under a hot Hawaiian sun and some cool trade winds was the perfect tonic for my day.

I missed AAPL's rebound today as the news of 3 million iPads sold carried over. But I didn't miss another early gain and later decline. Volume is so light at this time of year and my time off is so limited, there are simple choices for those of us in the middle of the Pacific during the hours of 2 am to 2 pm.

1. Sleep, hit the beach, relax.
2. Sleep, wake up every few hours, check the market, back to sleep.
3. Watch every tick for 12 hours straight.

I prefer 1 and 2 for the rest of this month. I'll be on the lookout for AAPL shares below 260, maybe 250. The last two lows were 231 and 242. Expecting another low below 250 would be expecting a bit too much, I believe. But AAPL has proven that it will consolidate for months before exploding again, and we're in the midst of that now, possibly.

Fund managers don't want to be out of AAPL as Q2 closes at the end of this month. But they'll be more than happy to shake out weak hands and grab all they can below 260 or 250. So I wait.

AAPL gained 1.36% to 273.85. It's a dangerous scenario, potentially. There are traders who want their small gains on a daily basis. There are longs who wisely have held since 78 last year (March 2009). If the global economy tanks, everyone gets washed out to sea without mercy. Caution advised.

GOOG fell just a bit (-0.47%) to 486.96. Is this the opportunity to jump in before the Google train leaves the station? Or is a ledge below the cliff, and there's nowhere to go but down? I don't know. I'm asking you.

BIDU couldn't buck the trend for a second day in a row and lost 0.89% to 75.68. The FXI lost 1.56% to 40.95, giving back a small portion of recent gains. FCX lost 4.25% to 65.19 and US Steel (X) dropped 3.07% to 43.59.

It's a short-term trader's paradise.

The FXE lost just 0.33% (122.38) while the US dollar (UUP) was up 0.16% to 25.07.

Stateside, Goldman Sachs lost 2.14% to 134.79 and C dropped 1.99% to 3.94. Abroad, Santander (STD) lost 1.83% to 11.25, IRE got smacked (3.88 -7.18%) and NBG slipped 2.03% to 2.41.

FAZ fed off the selloff and gained 4.92% to 14.92.

If all of this felt vaguely bearish or even bullish in your optimistic view, try this: All 40 of the stocks on my Nat Gas list finished in the red today, a first since Obama's clean energy speech 19 days ago. Red, red, red. There's just sorta exception in VNR, which broke even for the day.

If the Nat Gas sector, which has an edge over most, can't get positive, it might be a setback for the broader market. Sure, Gulf drillers may have gotten a reprieve today, but for how long? Does the State of Louisiana really think it can win against the President? Do we really need for all drillers to go back to work in the Gulf? There has to be a reasonable compromise that can keep workers employed without risking one or two more preposterous catastrophes.

USO (United States Oil Fund ETF) finished down 0.93% even with the Louisiana challenge. Meanwhile, the ultra-short oil ETF, SCO, gained 1.7% to 14.35, oddly enough.

VXX gained again, this time 1.01% to 26.49 and making those who entered below 25 geniuses.

FAZ was far from the only inverse ETN to gain nicely today. DRV (Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3x) gained 9.74% to 6.87.

TZA (Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x) ran up 6.29% to 6.97.

GLD reversed recent downward momentum and gained 0.88% to close at 121.45. TLT gained 1.19% to 98.57.

All in all, some interesting viewing from the bleachers. It might not be the worst time to pair AAPL and VXX, since there's no guarantee whatsoever of direction for either. But I'm not interested in that kind of excitement for now.

No comments: