Friday, January 21, 2011

Friday frenzy?

It's 4:35 a.m. in Hawaii and my screen probably looks a lot like yours: Everything is pretty much green. AAPL, which touched 330 yesterday before closing at 332 — the level I liked 10 or so days ago, but chose to not buy at — is moving up on massive early volume. It's only a few minutes in, but shares are over 334.

The bounce off 330 has been fairly notable, but whether this sticks, nobody really knows. All I can surmise with a guess is that share price will fluctuate for days, perhaps weeks. That's how AAPL rolls after earnings reports. Roll it shall.

Update, 6:48 a.m. AAPL back to 330+. Predictable enough on options exiry. Now 329.87 and there go the stop-loss orders. I'm 100% cash, not touching any Apples today.

Update, 12:57 p.m. Slept nice this morning, woke up to find a lot of red bleeding in the market. I can view it without the emotional tangle since going flat the other day, down 1% for the year based on a whopping single round-trip trade on AAPL. But to see that many other traders are down 3%, 8%, even 10% already is a bit disheartening. It's also not entirely unexpected. All the bulls were at the front of the ship and it was tipping over, even as I jumped on board last week. I hope every escapes unscathed, but the market has no mercy. Stick your finger in and your entire arm can be taken unless extreme caution to exercised.

AAPL closed at 326.66, roughly 8.7% down since its afterhours high of 357 earlier this week. A 10% haircut would bring it down to 322 or so. A 20% chomp would bring AAPL down to 285. I don't see a fall below the latter number — 1) Fundamentals are too strong, and 2) President Obama needs to gain public approval in this third year of his term.

With Nasdaq down (-0.41%), AAPL slipped 1.83% on slightly higher volume. GOOG fell 2.5% to 611 after a huge runup. It was at 640 before I crashed out this morning.

The issues I watched more closely today, stuff that may work fairly well in a choppy market, were a mixed bag. TBT dropped 1.3% while TLT (its opposite, more or less) gained 0.76%. VXX gained 1.79 percent, which surprised me. When the market sold off some yesterday, VXX was in the red. There's more negativity in the market now and I missed the VXX ride today.

The hottest momo rockets continued to fizzle. RLOC (-5.1%), LULU (-0.5%), NFLX (-1.9%).

Another weird turn was FAS (+1.9%). Finnies were hot, which kept the Dow Jones green. C (+1.5%) and JPM (+1.1%) did quite nice. GS, not so much (+0.3%).

A mega winner was ISRG (+12.7%) on more than six times normal volume after earnings. GE hit one out, too (+7.1%) with good earnings, and DIS was rolling (+1.5%) while AMZN ate dirt (-2.7%).

This is the kind of action that whipsaws those of us with a penchant to go all in (or close to it), those of us who react to defeat by reaching in and going double in. Don't do it, people! Step away, let the market do its thing, which right now is eating its own vomit. If you must re-enter, do it one bit at a time. Give it a chance to get back on its feet. Otherwise, you're betting on home runs while the market is dealing with tremors.

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