Tuesday, September 4, 2007

Rules good, Apple better

This is the addict confessing that his dysfunctional behavior is no way to survive the market. During the last session four days ago, I admitted that I broke my own rules and bought a little more Apple at $138.15 primarily because of Wednesday's anticipated news about a "new" iPhone/iPod. Apple had traded in the 130 range only recently, which was up from the mortgage mess low of 111.

I can bring myself to break rules — buying stocks that are above their 13-, 50- and 200-day simple and exponential moving averages — if they have tremendous growth and fundamentals. That's the case with Apple, but that weighs against the prospect of buying a great stock at the wrong time — perhaps before another meltdown — and getting stuck with shares that are 10, 20, 30 percent off their high. After all, AAPL was at 149 before the plunge to 111, which comes out to negatoid 25%. A whole lotta friggin fun that must've been for buyers at the peak.

Don't want the negatoid. After all, who among us goes grocery shopping and buys the most expensive of basic products. I wouldn't pay $9 for a pack of chewing gum. I don't care if it's Baidu branded. And I wouldn't get a can of garbonzo beans for $8 even with a Google label. That cool-looking 6-pack of brew by Apple would probably taste better at a discounted sale price instead of a screaming-high price of $19.

I'm not interested in the mediocre stocks of the world, just like I don't ever pay for a Bud (bleah) or Coors (nice). I want quality, and I took a chance on Friday with AAPL. Today, it closed at 144.16, off its mid-day high of 145.76. Does the market sell AAPL off tomorrow on the iPhone/iPod conference? Or does the stock propel even higher? Even my favorite MF writer, Rick Aristotle Munarriz is high on Apple and low on pundits who have called for doomsday in growth leaders.

Whatever it does, Steve Jobs is a genius. He knows how to market, knows how to keep the honeymoon rolling. That's why it's nearly impossible right now to see any lights dimming in Cupertino. Even a dysfunctional, occasionally undisciplined player can make a few bucks in his favorite Co of all time.

NILE singing the blues today

The Nasdaq is up 1.1% (29 points) and Blue Nile is sinking. How does this happen? Well...

1. Co chairman sold 180,000 shares of NILE at $83.86
2. No other negative news, with the exception of Brian Bolan's call for NILE longs to sell while the stock price is lofty and far above basic valuations, as he explained today.

Seeking Alpha: Blue Nile's Soaring Stock Is Opportunity To Sell

Is Bolan right? As he says openly in the post, one of the analysts that wasn't invited to be in on NILE's Q2 conference call. Is he a little bitter? Possibly, but his breakdown of the numbers is tough to argue against. Maybe he's right. Maybe NILE is really worth no more than $70.

So why is it that Zales and Tiffany's are so slow to enter the online market for diamonds and jewelry? Aren't the profit margins insanely attractive?

On the chart, today's 4.7% pullback brings the stock below 13-day EMA and SMA. I'm wary of a buy here, but I'm watching closely. This is a fickle stock and nowhere near its recent high of 98.

Monday, September 3, 2007

Raining on Baidu's parade

Or lemonade stand. Eddy Elfenbein's take on Baidu, lofty valuations and lemons.

Crossing Wall Street: How Much Would You Pay?

Going lulu in Honolulu

The puns and dorky wordplay never end with my favorite yoga-centered company, lululemon. A Google alert left me with the new knowledge that the newly public company now has a Honolulu location. Wow.

250 Ward Ave
Suite #206
Honolulu, HI 96814

Upstairs from First Hawaiian Bank and Kramer's Big & Tall
Parking on either side of the building and in front of Supercuts
tel: 808.591.8653

Showroom hours
Thursday and Friday 12pm-5pm
Saturday and Sunday 10am-4pm

I must go inspect, uhh, no ... visit the store ASAP. I don't own any LULU shares, but there's so much hype surrounding this relatively small Canadian company in its expansion to the U.S. that I need a closer look. I need to feel all these supposedly spectacular products and fabrics for myself. Not planning to do a downward dog while in the store. If it all checks out, and if I can get some positive growth numbers and fundamentals about the Co, it might well be worth a small buy.

If, if, if.

Brew Review: Hinano

Hinano (Tahiti)
Appearance (0 to 4 stars): 3.5. A bright gold. Nice.
Aroma: 3.0. Nothing potent or offensive.
Flavor: 3.0. Very interesting going down.
Texture: 4.0. Nice little kick, but still smooth. No funky aftertaste.
Drinkability: 3.0. Best on the first sip.

Overall score: 16.5.

Cost: $3.
On the label:
Summary: I'm assuming this is a lager, but it far exceeds my expectations. Great on a hot day, great with spicy food. The smoothness is a stunner.

Saturday, September 1, 2007

Preaching to the CNOOC choir

Yes, CNOOC's revenues decreased this year to date due to fluctuating oil prices. They are still in the best big growth market in the world. That's why I don't need Zacks.com to tell me this. They're preaching to the choir here.

Zacks.com: CNOOC Still Trades Fairly Cheap

Zacks senior Chinese market analyst Paul Cheung, CFA remains bullish on CNOOC, Ltd. (NYSE: CEO - News), even after the company's impressive gains over the past few years.

Old Saimin House

You might be surprised to see that the Old Saimin House is run by some fairly young people. Does it matter? Not really. The food is hot and good for the soul on a cool night.

I like the won tun saimin with, of course, my trusty Chinese mustard and shoyu. The place is classic old school. Even the BBQ sticks haven't changed in generations. Don't think kal bi style here. Think meaty chunks of steak on a stick, soaking in a sweet shoyu-based sauce.

OSH wasn't a regular stop for me growing up since it's out of the way for those of us who grew up in Mo'ili'ili. But with Washington Saimin long gone, finding a solid night-time saimin joint is getting tougher. OSH definitely fills the bill.

Old Saimin House
1311 N King St
Honolulu HI 96817
Phone: (808) 842-7697