Tuesday, September 4, 2007

Rules good, Apple better

This is the addict confessing that his dysfunctional behavior is no way to survive the market. During the last session four days ago, I admitted that I broke my own rules and bought a little more Apple at $138.15 primarily because of Wednesday's anticipated news about a "new" iPhone/iPod. Apple had traded in the 130 range only recently, which was up from the mortgage mess low of 111.

I can bring myself to break rules — buying stocks that are above their 13-, 50- and 200-day simple and exponential moving averages — if they have tremendous growth and fundamentals. That's the case with Apple, but that weighs against the prospect of buying a great stock at the wrong time — perhaps before another meltdown — and getting stuck with shares that are 10, 20, 30 percent off their high. After all, AAPL was at 149 before the plunge to 111, which comes out to negatoid 25%. A whole lotta friggin fun that must've been for buyers at the peak.

Don't want the negatoid. After all, who among us goes grocery shopping and buys the most expensive of basic products. I wouldn't pay $9 for a pack of chewing gum. I don't care if it's Baidu branded. And I wouldn't get a can of garbonzo beans for $8 even with a Google label. That cool-looking 6-pack of brew by Apple would probably taste better at a discounted sale price instead of a screaming-high price of $19.

I'm not interested in the mediocre stocks of the world, just like I don't ever pay for a Bud (bleah) or Coors (nice). I want quality, and I took a chance on Friday with AAPL. Today, it closed at 144.16, off its mid-day high of 145.76. Does the market sell AAPL off tomorrow on the iPhone/iPod conference? Or does the stock propel even higher? Even my favorite MF writer, Rick Aristotle Munarriz is high on Apple and low on pundits who have called for doomsday in growth leaders.

Whatever it does, Steve Jobs is a genius. He knows how to market, knows how to keep the honeymoon rolling. That's why it's nearly impossible right now to see any lights dimming in Cupertino. Even a dysfunctional, occasionally undisciplined player can make a few bucks in his favorite Co of all time.

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