Tuesday, September 4, 2007

NILE singing the blues today

The Nasdaq is up 1.1% (29 points) and Blue Nile is sinking. How does this happen? Well...

1. Co chairman sold 180,000 shares of NILE at $83.86
2. No other negative news, with the exception of Brian Bolan's call for NILE longs to sell while the stock price is lofty and far above basic valuations, as he explained today.

Seeking Alpha: Blue Nile's Soaring Stock Is Opportunity To Sell

Is Bolan right? As he says openly in the post, one of the analysts that wasn't invited to be in on NILE's Q2 conference call. Is he a little bitter? Possibly, but his breakdown of the numbers is tough to argue against. Maybe he's right. Maybe NILE is really worth no more than $70.

So why is it that Zales and Tiffany's are so slow to enter the online market for diamonds and jewelry? Aren't the profit margins insanely attractive?

On the chart, today's 4.7% pullback brings the stock below 13-day EMA and SMA. I'm wary of a buy here, but I'm watching closely. This is a fickle stock and nowhere near its recent high of 98.

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