Thursday tabled?

This morning's market: a noble gas, indeed

4:29 am (Hawaii). You knew it. I knew it. Everyone knew it. The market was due for a breather. Maybe a correction, but more likely, a rest. Nothing goes up forever, especially at the rate of the past several months.

In premarket, metals and I-hate-this-world ETFs like VXX and QID are up. Nothing extreme, mostly up to 1% or less. Almost everything else is in the red, including AAPL. which apparently rallied over 360, but is now back below 358 even though it seems Steve Jobs is going to meet President Obama for dinner. How sick could he be if that's the plan? It comes down to investor confidence and the need to register profits. AAPL is taking a pit stop.

If this is strictly a buying opportunity, I don't want to miss it. And with the opening bell, AAPL is already over 359. Zoomzoom.

Remember, tomorrow is options expiration. The usual weirdness will likely prevail until then.

Purely momentus

3:25 am (Hawaii). Is the pit stop already over? In lieu of a real pullback of 5 or 10%, the market is awash in green numbers on my iMac screen. It's stunning, confounding ... I'm all cash and happy to be there, but sans bad news, the market is possibly ready to take flight once again without me.

AAPL is set to gap higher if it holds here at 361.44. A 50% retrace from today's premarket high to 360.74 or so, would've been a nice entry point for a short-term trade, but it wouldn't even come back to 361 even. I may be a whore for this stock, but there's a limit to how much I'll chase. Must maintain a shred of dignity and discipline. Or not.

A gap here could be a runaway freight train, a cliche that invites an image of a perilous crash. Whatever. I just think that above 360 AAPL could run several more dollars higher. Pull back. Run again. Pull back. It's a fund manager's must-have. Who can blame any of them? The world's reigning filthy-rich megastock with a ridiculously low P/E, 75% growth YOY and $59 billion under the matress.

Yesterday, AAPL touched 361 in premarket and never got close after the opening bell. But with 3/4ths of my watch list green, is it reasonable to assume that all of these stocks are being played by the specialists? Don't think so.

What else is green in premarket? VCLK (+12.9%), POT, LVS, NFLX, EGPT, on and on and on. More like, what's not green? That would be HAIN (big run lately), TBT, OPEN, QID, ARMH, VXX, RLOC.

Update, 4:33 am (Hawaii). Missed the 50% retrace of AAPL. Came all the way down to 360.50 or so but I was cautious about such a steep drop after the opening bell. Then it moved back to 361.50-plus within a minute. Volume is definitely there. This may be liftoff, after all.

Update, 5:20 am (Hawaii). AAPL to the moon, now 362.68. Major buying pressure the past 10 minutes, from 361.20 almost nonstop higher. The move came along with positive divergence in MACD. Missed my chance at the opening bell on the 50%-plus retrace from yesterday's close. Oh well ...

Next retrace (50%) entry is 361.35. Not expecting a pullback to that level, but I won't chase.

Update, 5:26 am (Hawaii). 50% retrace would be 361.45 now. HOD is 363.00. Likely was a short squeeze. AAPL longs having a party.

Update, 8:36 am (Hawaii). Somewhere, the angel in charge of stock moves is shaking his head and giggling at me. Really. As I drifted into slumber — hey, it was early morning and even two Red Bulls overnight couldn't keep me up longer — Newton's Law took effect. AAPL came back down to earth after touching 364.90. In fact, AAPL retraced even mote than 50% (of the day's gain) and bottomed at 361.42. (Retrace was nearly 70%.)

Maybe I should've put in a limit buy order, but falling asleep wasn't in my plan and I don't care for hard orders of any kind. Anyway, after hitting that level, AAPL ramped up and rose to 363.44, a gain of $2. In the past hour or so, shares have meandered around 363 and change.

So, I've been in cash all day, amazed by the spike in AAPL, not a penny made. Not a penny lost either. The market remains in the green, but gains are not as broad as they were earlier.

Update, 9:21 am (Hawaii). The two major drops in AAPL (and to an extent, the general market) were at 11:21 am (Eastern) and 12:01 pm (Eastern). There aren't many steady declines in the stock nowadays. It's gradual, no-selling pressure climbs that peak and get sold off violently. Whether they're activated by robots or retail stop-loss orders is not the issue. AAPL is top-heavy, a big dude who can bench press 700 pounds who also has pencil legs and tips over at the slightest breeze of 1-2 mph.

Shares are still up more than 3 bucks for the day (almost 1%). Without a catalyst, the guess here is that late-arriving funds have established their positions since Monday. There's no edge to buying here at 363 as a retail trader unless a final-hour buying spree kicks in. I'll be much more willing if shares get below 362 again.

9:55 am (Hawaii). So, Disney and Apple drawing new lines in the sand today. Disney tells Netflix and Coinstar wholesale rates are going up for its films. Apple making that 30% cut the anchor rate of sorts across its app store. Anyone still think Steve Jobs really isn't working behind the scenes at both companies? His prints are all over this. Good for profit margins at DIS and AAPL.

11:01 am (Hawaii). Opened a position in AAPL before the closing bell. Today's volume (16+ million shares) and the short-term base at 363+ provided an opportunity off the HOD (364.90). Not a perfect entry point (sub 362 was ideal) and shares could trade down to 360 (options expiry in two days). Rumor on Boy Genius Report about Verizon and Apple disappointed with iPhone 4 sales.

12:52 pm (Hawaii). Out of AAPL with a small loss (-2.83/sh). I saw shares dip excessively from 363 to 362 in a flash, then head lower and lower. Finally saw links on Twitter about Steve Jobs being spotted leaving Stanford Cancer Center. Instead of waiting around, I just stepped out of the trade and took the small loss. (Half of 1 percent of bankroll.) Figures that no matter how cautious I am, trying not to hold overnight most of the time, the slightest bit of negative news can send AAPL off a cliff. Soft landing, at least this time. Shares bounced off sub 360 and are now at 361+. Back to 100% cash. Best wishes to Mr. Jobs.

9:59 pm (Hawaii). Free time once again. Nice to see that Steve Jobs is meeting with a bunch of techies and a certain individual named Barack Obama tomorrow night for dinner. Looking back, I don't regret erring on the side of caution and getting out of my AAPL trade. That was no mistake. My concern about the public's perception of Jobs going to the doctor was the only factor, and I was right to get out in case AAPL went off the rails (far lower than 360+.

My position did not give me an edge of any kind. Longs who got in at 50 or 100 easily brushed the Enquirer and Daily News stories off like nothing. But those of us who are trading AAPL now are probably much more sensitive to unexpected news and price movement because our position is far more vulnerable. Therein lies the rub. I chased AAPL afterhours, and in the end, I paid the price. It was an odd set of circumstances, but the crux of it all is it was my own fault. The trade itself didn't cost me much, but the execution and price point were mediocre. There's much to learn from today's trade gone bad. It's not about the dollars. It's about discipline. I'm still learning.

The lack of discipline goes back to the opening bell, when AAPL sold off after gapping up. I had my entry point in mind, but did not follow through. Soon enough, AAPL ran from 361 to almost 365.

Two examples of a lack of discipline. To trade AAPL requires a modicum of faith sprinkled on solid discipine. I need both, really.

The Obama Plan for Technology and Finance

I am SO, SO buying AAPL first thing in the morning. It's destined for 500, 600 ... 1,000 ... 2,000 ... 5,000... but it could sell off to 300 first. Maybe I'm not buying AAPL in the morning. No. Well, yeah. Nah ... maybe.

If this comes to pass, I'll christen it my O.R.P. Fiscal Strategic Plan. But really, AAPL is probably due for a selloff when amateurs are forecasting magnificent gains with top-grade graphics. Here comes the crassssshhh...

Update, 9:21 am (Hawaii). OK, I'm not really expecting a crash. A normal pullback of 5 or 10% wouldn't shock me. But if I were long AAPL, I'd cover my backside with some QID should there be a disturbance in the Force. It came in handy for some traders back in Fall 2008.

In the Year 2000 . . .

Once upon a time, there was a fantastic site named Google. Sooner or later, almost all web surfers adopted this nifty search engine as a tool to the finding answers to the questions of the Universe. Its stock, once unleashed upon said Universe, dipped and meandered for a few months, but eventually picked up steam and dashed up the steep mountain like a rocket. From 85 to 125 in such a short time, I recall, during my one brief stay on board Rocket Google. I should've held, but whatever. It later split 3-for-1 and is currently at 626. That would've been a 20-bagger, if my math is right.

So, with Facebook showing signs of a similar path — maybe an IPO in 2012? — can we say that its stock will follow a similar trajectory to GOOG? It's a tough call. I still don't understand how web ads translate to revenues based only on clicks and views, but if merchants buy it (literally) and money sweeps into the hallways of Facebook, what more do I need to know?

A Facebook IPO and the years of trading the stock to come will be interesting. I don't know how bullish or bearish I'd be on it, but it'll be polarizing, maybe. Is it GOOG? Is it YHOO? In between? Is Facebook really worth $53,000,000,000?

Facebook could follow this ziggety zag. Or not.

Zoom zoom zoom

4:40 am (Hawaii). Futures were rather flat and AAPL was just slightly in the green during premarket as I drifted in and out of sleep this morning. I'm finally retiring to bed, turned away from the laptop for a few moments and ZOOM! AAPL went from 356 to 359 at incredible speed.

Might have something to do with talk of a mini iPhone that would be half the size of the current make. More likely, it's just cash inflows pouring into the market as the week begins, scared money that avoided the risks of a wacky environment. How else to explain how EGPT has gone up $1 since I noticed it afterhours on Friday (now 19.60). Or NFLX climbing another $5 (to 236). Commodity-driven stocks like MOS and POT have enjoyed spurts this morning, but SLV and EXK are up, too. GLD (+0.6%), also up.

The broader market is pretty flat, but the momo leaders are still on fire. Zoom zoom zoom...

Update, 1:17 pm (Hawaii). A solid eight hours of sleep with intermittent checks on the market. That's how it's possible to doze through the session. Even if I'd been up, I wouldn't have bought AAPL at 359.38 or NFLX at 247.55, their highs of the day. No, I knew there would be no chasing of high flyers. I want great stocks cheap. I was better off sleeping.

How to explain NFLX, which ran higher — currently up 15.68 to 246.75 (+6.8%) — on news of increased popularity online. The numbers are bizarre and incredible: 20% of online traffic is because of Netflix now. Again, I say that the CEO of the company showed his savvy and efficiency a few years back during an interview on 60 Minutes. Still, I was not convinced. I was wrrrrrrong. Even a year ago, shares were available at 70 or so. Small float. Great opportunity. But I thought Apple and Amazon would invade the online streaming niche. Wrong again.

WSJ says time spent per viewer was up on Netflix 23%, 28% more video was streamed and customers spent 45% more time watching video online. (I wonder how movie theater stocks are doing.)

AAPL, by far, is my trading vehicle of choice, but in reality, it's a steady mover with occasional spurts. Better as a buy-and-hold over the short or mid-term. NFLX, clearly, is a short-stomper to the extreme. The combination of good news and fund inflows today didn't hurt, but I won't expect continued rise in the price tomorrow or the day after. I never expected NFLX to see 245 this soon, either, so...

Speaking of AAPL, that spike from 357 to 359 was dizzying. And shares stayed above 358 the rest of the day. Not many wanted to sell. Sure, 11 million shares aren't much to brag about, but there is simply a shortage of sellers while fund managers continue to collect shares. I try not to think about my own "relationship" with AAPL, having sold last week at 358.70. There was no way I was dipping a single toe into the water after that mini flash crash. Apparently, whoever (hedge funds) sold massively during that 30-minute period is done selling... right?

Never say never ... but those who have held since the run to 200 and dip to 78 and back up to 358 have probably gotten all their sleep and have begun counting down the days to retirement. More power to them.

AAPL: Huge spike in the first 10 minutes.

Volume tapering off, but Apple knows how

to consistently 'leak' stimulating news.

Massive short covering in NFLX at the open.

Count 'em: Six major gap-ups in the past 12 months.

Update, 4:55 pm (Hawaii). Catching up on today's big move in NFLX. So what really made NFLX jump another 16 bucks today? Qualcomm's development of an essential chip platform? More on Snapdragon's prowess here. Was it an analyst's upgrade? David Miller raised his target from 224 to 316.

Wow. 

Leonard Brecken accused Netflix of "playing accounting games." 

Update, 5:53 am (Hawaii). OK, Brecken and whoever else can bash Netflix all they like, but combine online movies with something cool like Apple iPads and iPhones (via app) and you have a recipe for uber-cool success, a Viagrish effect. I can accept that. May never buy at these levels, but it's there. 

But what about LULU? Really, I understand trends and fads, but this is parabolic. A double in four months? Really? Though Lululemon Athletica is legitimate as a company that sells butt-shaping product to yoga-loving women across America, the current trend in the stock reminds me of Fall, 2007. At that time, LULU was fresh off its IPO and I grabbed a few shares at 45. It exploded to 60, then fell back to 45 even more quickly and I got out at break-even. 

Now that it's trading at 83 with a chart that resembles Mt. Everest, is LULU's spurt about to run empty? Is this a sign of a market top? I think a short-term selloff is on the way. Nothing wrong, just basic supply and demand. 

The Viagrish effect will wear off or it'll break on its own.

Icarus, Icarus

Lament for Icarus

Work to be done so I'm off the laptop and iMac for some time. I'll be thinking about Apple and its wondrous dent in the universe, how hedgies unloaded millions of shares* and sparked a free-fall fire on Thursday. I'll be thinking about how quickly AAPL recovered during that afternoon.

I'll be thinking about Egypt and it's major step forward today with the official resignation of Mubarak, how I felt tempted to buy Egypt ETF (EGPT) but opted not to due to my nearly-complete ignorance of the economy there and the seeming lack of technological future. No tech, no future, simple as that.

I will come back here and post bits of info about some of the insanely high flyers (so far) of 2011: Netflix (NFLX), Open Table (OPEN), Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Reach Local (RLOC), Baidu (BIDU) and Apple, of course.

If and when the market corrects — nothing can hold its breath forever, not even a happy bull free-diving in the South Pacific — which of these high flyers will fall the most? Which will follow Icarus to the ground after soaring with a set of wings of wax?

En fuego

I don't mind watching flames. It could be a campfire. A simulated fiery house in need of a fire department training crew. But right now, AAPL is up roughly 3 bucks to 357+ and I'm watching from Row 15, Seat AA. Steady climb all day. I slept through most of it, and at 9:12 am (Hawaii), there's less than 2 hours left in the session.

So, how will AAPL close out the week? It's been enough, all this up and down, is Steve Jobs in the hospital or not ... well, it's good to know the stock is (apparently) back on track after yesterday's stop-loss smackdown by the big boys on the Street. The truly crafty among us sold near the intraday top (360) and had buy orders set near 350. I did the first (sorta) and nothing resembling the second, so I'm in cash 100%. Just can't stand the idea of standing too close to the flames. Seen enough of the manipulation and shenanigans of the big boys when so much momentum is built into a stock.

There are, as always, certain tangibles to consider about holding AAPL over the weekend. Verizon, at some point, will announce how many iPhones it sold since launching on Thursday. (Technically, it was Wednesday.) The expected number is 1 million. What happens to AAPL if Verizon announces sales of 800,000? Or 1.5 million? The initial pre-order already was 1 million, according to Apple nerds online.

My guess, based on nothing more than the possibilities, is that 1 million were sold. Why not more? As Philip Elmer-DeWitt and others have noted, there are a lot of Verizon subscribers who are waiting for iPhone 5 to debut in the summer. A lot of AT&T iPhone subs would have to terminate contracts and don't want to pay the $325 (or whatever it is) as a penalty. There are a lot of gray-area matter revolving around this catalyst, and much of it won't settle in for weeks or months.

It's also intriguing to see so many events involving one company, one stock. Most stocks have earnings and maybe two or three events in a year that make a huge difference. Apple is beyond the cusp, leading the way in innovative technology for the masses, appealing to humans of all ages and backgrounds. (I say humans because I have a comic-book theory that much of the technology arrived from beyond our orbit. I'll save that for later, like, maybe in an actual comic book.)

So, my guess is AAPL and Verizon don't shock the world come Monday or Tuesday (or sooner or later). Anything short of global catastrophe or a setback for Mr. Jobs' health means the stock continues to climb steadily higher, just like today. A shortage of sellers and a growing number of buyers. AAPL is no NFLX or OPEN, but it won't crash 5 or 10% in a day either, all things being normal. There is no edge to buying AAPL at 357. There may be an edge to buying AAPL above 360, however. As yesterday showed, once shares get over a previous all-time high, it runneth over mightily.

I'm not looking to hit a home run. The easy money in AAPL is long term, for the investor who is going to hold to 500, 750, 1,000. Or the trader who's been holding since 95 or 20. I'm trying to minimize risk and ride AAPL's coattails with selective timing. Eliminate greed and be calculating. Be simple, which is essential to those of us who sleep through most of the market. (I've tried changing my sleep clock, but waking up at 3 am isn't a permanent solution for me.)

With no edge on this current catalyst, I'm remaining on the sideline.

Other than that, the rest of the world seems to be moving on just fine.

Update, 10:26 am (Hawaii). Half an hour before the bell. Looks like I'm content to walk into the weekend position free. EGPT is appealing even after today's 5% gain. No reason now — even the extremists are on the sidelines right now — why EGPT can't get back to 20. Dropping a bit here (18.65) after bouncing off 18.47, which is roughly a 60% intraday pullback from the 19.25 high.

How much does actual economics compare to the media coverage of the past weeks, plus the re-opening of Egypt's stock market (Sunday) and businesses (Monday)? It wouldn't matter, except I'm guessing most EGPT buyers and sellers are in the U.S. and have paid close attention through media. The better time frame probably goes back to when shares dipped to sub-16 (from 20) in late January, which means this rally is already at 15% above that low. After all, the tension will soften now that Mubarak is out. Media coverage will wane. I'm guessing EGPT gets back to 20 slowly, then hovers there. Beyond that, well, the rest is up to the new democracy. Frankly, I'm tech-biased (if lacking tech tools) and Egypt doesn't strike me (yet) as a rising tech leader. If anything, I might open a tiny position, but probably not.

Planning to pay more attention to NFLX, OPEN and LULU this weekend when I've got time. Not liking their P/E levels, but they're incredibly hard to ignore. NFLX up 3.4% today (230.75). OPEN up 3.3% (94.76). LULU up 1.8% (84.30). I remember LULU at 79 last week and Cramer pumping it, saying wait for a drop. Didn't happen. Will happen at some point, but it'll be awhile, it seems.

MOS, AAPL are more my speed. Huge revenues and both are in the sweet spot. MOS will benefit from higher prices for commodities. AAPL is AAPL.

Update, 12:19 pm (Hawaii). Well, this may not be true, but it sure strikes a chord. Douglas Stanton, one of the regular posters on the fantastic Apple Finance Board, indicates that three hedge funds are going out of business and therefore unwinding AAPL shares by the millions. If this is so, it would have the effect of secondary shares thrust upon the market. Well, not secondary, but to a much smaller extent, the kind that would send shares plummeting from 358 to 348 in minutes.

AAPL at 356.85 AH.

Reading is fun
Twitter/Ignacio Zendejas: Steve Jobs at Indian restaurant
Twitter/Daniel Dreymann: Jobs at Amber Indian restaurant
Daily News: Hosni Mubarak steps down
All Things Digital: Facebook moves could disallow apps from running Google ads
Bloomberg: Apple working on cheaper, smaller iPhones
Tech Crunch: iPhone Nano rumor reborn
Philip Elmer-DeWitt: Is Apple ripe for a stock split?
Fortune: RBC Capital: Verizon will sell more than a million iPhones in its first week
Whitney Tilson: Why we covered our Netflix short
Douglas Stanton: 3 hedge funds unwinding AAPL stock