Monday, February 14, 2011

In the Year 2000 . . .


Once upon a time, there was a fantastic site named Google. Sooner or later, almost all web surfers adopted this nifty search engine as a tool to the finding answers to the questions of the Universe. Its stock, once unleashed upon said Universe, dipped and meandered for a few months, but eventually picked up steam and dashed up the steep mountain like a rocket. From 85 to 125 in such a short time, I recall, during my one brief stay on board Rocket Google. I should've held, but whatever. It later split 3-for-1 and is currently at 626. That would've been a 20-bagger, if my math is right.

So, with Facebook showing signs of a similar path — maybe an IPO in 2012? — can we say that its stock will follow a similar trajectory to GOOG? It's a tough call. I still don't understand how web ads translate to revenues based only on clicks and views, but if merchants buy it (literally) and money sweeps into the hallways of Facebook, what more do I need to know?

A Facebook IPO and the years of trading the stock to come will be interesting. I don't know how bullish or bearish I'd be on it, but it'll be polarizing, maybe. Is it GOOG? Is it YHOO? In between? Is Facebook really worth $53,000,000,000?

Facebook could follow this ziggety zag. Or not.

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