So, how will AAPL close out the week? It's been enough, all this up and down, is Steve Jobs in the hospital or not ... well, it's good to know the stock is (apparently) back on track after yesterday's stop-loss smackdown by the big boys on the Street. The truly crafty among us sold near the intraday top (360) and had buy orders set near 350. I did the first (sorta) and nothing resembling the second, so I'm in cash 100%. Just can't stand the idea of standing too close to the flames. Seen enough of the manipulation and shenanigans of the big boys when so much momentum is built into a stock.
There are, as always, certain tangibles to consider about holding AAPL over the weekend. Verizon, at some point, will announce how many iPhones it sold since launching on Thursday. (Technically, it was Wednesday.) The expected number is 1 million. What happens to AAPL if Verizon announces sales of 800,000? Or 1.5 million? The initial pre-order already was 1 million, according to Apple nerds online.
My guess, based on nothing more than the possibilities, is that 1 million were sold. Why not more? As Philip Elmer-DeWitt and others have noted, there are a lot of Verizon subscribers who are waiting for iPhone 5 to debut in the summer. A lot of AT&T iPhone subs would have to terminate contracts and don't want to pay the $325 (or whatever it is) as a penalty. There are a lot of gray-area matter revolving around this catalyst, and much of it won't settle in for weeks or months.
It's also intriguing to see so many events involving one company, one stock. Most stocks have earnings and maybe two or three events in a year that make a huge difference. Apple is beyond the cusp, leading the way in innovative technology for the masses, appealing to humans of all ages and backgrounds. (I say humans because I have a comic-book theory that much of the technology arrived from beyond our orbit. I'll save that for later, like, maybe in an actual comic book.)
So, my guess is AAPL and Verizon don't shock the world come Monday or Tuesday (or sooner or later). Anything short of global catastrophe or a setback for Mr. Jobs' health means the stock continues to climb steadily higher, just like today. A shortage of sellers and a growing number of buyers. AAPL is no NFLX or OPEN, but it won't crash 5 or 10% in a day either, all things being normal. There is no edge to buying AAPL at 357. There may be an edge to buying AAPL above 360, however. As yesterday showed, once shares get over a previous all-time high, it runneth over mightily.
I'm not looking to hit a home run. The easy money in AAPL is long term, for the investor who is going to hold to 500, 750, 1,000. Or the trader who's been holding since 95 or 20. I'm trying to minimize risk and ride AAPL's coattails with selective timing. Eliminate greed and be calculating. Be simple, which is essential to those of us who sleep through most of the market. (I've tried changing my sleep clock, but waking up at 3 am isn't a permanent solution for me.)
With no edge on this current catalyst, I'm remaining on the sideline.
Other than that, the rest of the world seems to be moving on just fine.
Update, 10:26 am (Hawaii). Half an hour before the bell. Looks like I'm content to walk into the weekend position free. EGPT is appealing even after today's 5% gain. No reason now — even the extremists are on the sidelines right now — why EGPT can't get back to 20. Dropping a bit here (18.65) after bouncing off 18.47, which is roughly a 60% intraday pullback from the 19.25 high.
How much does actual economics compare to the media coverage of the past weeks, plus the re-opening of Egypt's stock market (Sunday) and businesses (Monday)? It wouldn't matter, except I'm guessing most EGPT buyers and sellers are in the U.S. and have paid close attention through media. The better time frame probably goes back to when shares dipped to sub-16 (from 20) in late January, which means this rally is already at 15% above that low. After all, the tension will soften now that Mubarak is out. Media coverage will wane. I'm guessing EGPT gets back to 20 slowly, then hovers there. Beyond that, well, the rest is up to the new democracy. Frankly, I'm tech-biased (if lacking tech tools) and Egypt doesn't strike me (yet) as a rising tech leader. If anything, I might open a tiny position, but probably not.
Planning to pay more attention to NFLX, OPEN and LULU this weekend when I've got time. Not liking their P/E levels, but they're incredibly hard to ignore. NFLX up 3.4% today (230.75). OPEN up 3.3% (94.76). LULU up 1.8% (84.30). I remember LULU at 79 last week and Cramer pumping it, saying wait for a drop. Didn't happen. Will happen at some point, but it'll be awhile, it seems.
MOS, AAPL are more my speed. Huge revenues and both are in the sweet spot. MOS will benefit from higher prices for commodities. AAPL is AAPL.
Update, 12:19 pm (Hawaii). Well, this may not be true, but it sure strikes a chord. Douglas Stanton, one of the regular posters on the fantastic Apple Finance Board, indicates that three hedge funds are going out of business and therefore unwinding AAPL shares by the millions. If this is so, it would have the effect of secondary shares thrust upon the market. Well, not secondary, but to a much smaller extent, the kind that would send shares plummeting from 358 to 348 in minutes.
AAPL at 356.85 AH.
Reading is fun
Twitter/Ignacio Zendejas: Steve Jobs at Indian restaurant
Twitter/Daniel Dreymann: Jobs at Amber Indian restaurant
Daily News: Hosni Mubarak steps down
All Things Digital: Facebook moves could disallow apps from running Google ads
Bloomberg: Apple working on cheaper, smaller iPhones
Tech Crunch: iPhone Nano rumor reborn
Philip Elmer-DeWitt: Is Apple ripe for a stock split?
Fortune: RBC Capital: Verizon will sell more than a million iPhones in its first week
Whitney Tilson: Why we covered our Netflix short
Douglas Stanton: 3 hedge funds unwinding AAPL stock
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