Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Green Giant



3:33 am (Hawaii) Wow. 89% of my watch list is green. That's a first. Can the premarket surge hold? Is this for real? Have we hit a bottom for the near term? I've realized for weeks and weeks that we're range-bound, and with earnings on deck, it's about picking properly.

Silver is up. EXK +3.5% to 11.28, but off its opening price of 11.41. SLW is up 1.8% to 43.16, off its open of 43.55. SLV is up 0.8% to 39.40, off its open of 39.51.

Crude oil futures are at 106.90, ending (for now) the recent skid. UCO is up 1.9% to 57.12, a bit off its open of 57.33. WNR is up handsomely by 1.8% to 17.62, making me regret not opening at least a partial position at yesterday's closing price of 17.30. Still worth a look-see here. I may just dive in with a half position rather than overthink the whole situation like I usually do.

AAPL is up again, just slightly. At 333.53, AAPL is already off its open of 335.06.

It smells like a DEAD CAT BOUNCE. Then again, the market has moved up for days and weeks on end in the past year on low volume, spitting watermelon seeds into the spitoons of bears.

China remains playable. YZC is up 4.4% to 37.96, proving that China loves cheap, plentiful energy by any means necessary. The extremely low volume, though, makes this something to be entertained by, not necessarily to play with.


Update 4:36 am (Hawaii) Opened a half position in WNR at 17.75, got out at 17.65. More like shaken out, as it then jumped to 17.79 within 2 minutes. I got back in at 17.85 as CNBC announced news about crude oil supply. I don't know the details. I just know WNR shot to 17.90 in a few seconds, so I opened a position when it dipped. Will this stick? I'm sensitive to the general market and unwilling to take anything more than moderate risk. Watching and using appropriate patience and nimbleness.

Update 3:03 pm (Hawaii) Clearly, WNR is a bubbling, oozing form best traded often or barely at all. It's not the kind of stock worth looking after all day (which I tried, but finally couldn't do after falling asleep early in the morning). You either trade it on the drastic moves to the up or down side, but just swing trading it would do well, also.

The dip today from the 18.08 HOD to 17.37 or so, that was no fun. But the fundamentals behind crude oil supply and demand kept me rooted. Sure enough, WNR finished back in the 18 range, 18.22 in its final afterhours trade. There are other stocks that are appealing, but I'm content to be 67% cash for now.

If 17.30 is the new support, as the ever-so-meticulous ChessNwine noted today, lifting above the recent high of 19.50 is do-able. The only thing I didn't like about today's close was the lower volume. WNR has traded higher and stronger with increased volume on consecutive up days, especially in the period of Jan. 28 to Feb. 2. If we don't get a breakout in WNR, daytrading it may be the best way to go.

Crude oil futures are slightly down to 107.10, while silver futures are slightly up (40.48).

AAPL finished up (+1.0%) at 335.65, a second consecutive plus day, and the indices were all fractionally up after starting strong, dipping into the red, and rallying late.

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