5:40 am (Hawaii) In my brain, I do not expect another Flash Crash. I do not believe the Fed would allow that or any other financial catastrophe at this time. I don't believe they would knowingly allow it. And yet, the fear remains. It explains why I'm so trigger happy to sell when I'm down significantly, as was the case yesterday with WNR, and so slow to reap profits when I'm up significantly, as was the case with SLV.
By "significantly," I'm talking about roughly 1% or more of my modest bankroll. All in all, had I slept through the session and left my two positions alone, WNR would be fine. I'd be down right now just a bit (17.71 vs. my entry of 17.85) instead of selling at 17.15. And SLV would be in good shape at 42.28. I bought at 41.60 and sold at 41.70 on yesterday's wild spring and fall after the open.
Hindsight can be a bitch. So, looking forward... 45% of my watch list is green. Every dip in the past few weeks has been winnable. With US Steel topping the list (+4.3%), something positive is going on globally. Or maybe yesterday's broad selloff was a good puke to get out those unhealthy toxins and poisons.
AAPL is up fractionally to 332.83 and relatively stable. Yesterday's drop to 320+ and move up to 331 was immense. Dave Fry seemed to indicate that this "save" was orchestrated. Probably wasn't the first time. Yesterday's purge withstanding, it seems like a neutral start to the week. There's room for earnings to give the market a jolt to the upside. Global chaos remains, but isn't being force-fed via media as much as recent months.
I'm watching a few things here:
1. Silver topping. I don't think silver in the near term will crash. But it will pull back occasionally no matter what, and when those selloffs become more common, there will be consolidation, and eventually, boredom. Yes, traders get bored, and that's when a parabolic rise levels off, then sinks. Use your Fibonacci retrace or technical support levels as visual guides. I don't want to be in silver when this happens.
2. Oil topping. Obama is not going to let $5 gas happen, and I doubt $4 gas lasts forever, not until the next presidential election is done. Though I still like WNR, it trades on crude oil rather than crack spreads, which is both ridiculous and hard to swallow if you're trading it on the bull side.
3. Apple earnings momentum. It's happening before our eyes, except AAPL is closer to 330 than 360 (or 400), which is a nice, swift kick to the lower plexus for those of us who saw no momentum break ahead a few months ago. A buy below 330 would've been interesting. I can feel 340 around the corner, but I don't buy on feelings.
Update 6:17 am (Hawaii) Silver breaking out to 43.72 for goodness sakes. SLV (42.70), SLW (41.67), PHYS (13.22) riding along. EXK barely up and PASS in red. I don't believe in gurus and cult figures, but Turd F comes pretty close when it comes to precious, precious metals.
The good news is: demand for gold is so great that $1500 will give way soon, regardless of the action tonight and/or tomorrow. On the flip side, silver may be so strong tomorrow and Wednesday that it may drag gold clear through $1500 without resistance and money will come flooding in from sideline dipshits who were waiting for $1500 weakness to give them a lower entry point.He's been honest, balanced and RIGHT in the short time I've been reading (following) his work. And if I'd stayed the course, I'd be up 33% in silver during those two or so months instead of middling in and out like the coward I am.
Update 7:15 am (Hawaii) Silver breaking higher (43.72) though not quite at HOD (43.82). However, SLV is running, now 42.83. I re-entered several minutes ago at 42.57, trying hard to blank out yesterday's debacle.
Checking some details, I didn't sell SLV and WNR as low as I remembered, but the loss of paper profits (and actual loss) still sucks. Sold SLV at 41.71 and WNR at 17.23.
Right now, SLV hovering at 42.80. Seems to trail actual silver by 1 buck give or take, but I don't know if trading along those parameters would work. Seems to be a relationship there, though. When SLV gets within 1 buck, say 80¢, eventually, it will reel back to that dollar difference. When SLV gets beyond 1 buck, to say $1.25, it pulls closer to the dollar difference. Maybe worth doing some homework on.
Update 8:31 am (Hawaii) While metalheads are frothing at the mouth, anticipating a possible breakthrough for gold (currently 1496) and silver (43.86), I came across something somewhat interesting on the spot silver chart at Kitco. Yesterday and today, silver took its gains and lumps during London trading, but once London closed shop (
Is spot silver being manipulated via overseas channels? Probably not, but it makes me wonder.
All the anticipation for gold and silver is probably overdone and for naught, at least today. I think gold closes at 1490 and silver stays below 44. Too much selling in both before the thresholds. Wouldn't sadden me to be wrong, though.
WNR riding crude oil's rise today (courtesy of lunacy in Nigeria) and now at 17.91 (18.01 HOD). Goes to show what a gentle grip and a little patience can do for WNR traders, especially those who jumped ship near yesterday's low (me).
Update 8:46 am (Hawaii) As for the percentage difference between spot silver and SLV, it appears to be 2.5%. SLV trades 2.5% lower than spot silver due to expenses, etc. of being a paper silver trading vehicle. Spot silver at 43.87 equals SLV at roughly 42.77, which is where both are approximately at now.
Update 9:20 am (Hawaii) Spot silver at 44.06, and the 2.5% difference with SLV makes SLV at 42.95, right on point. The correlation/relationship remaining intact through this move up. And down.
I'm quite fine with being wrong about 44.
Update 9:35 am (Hawaii) Strength in silver going into the close. SLV can hit 43.00 if spot silver gets to 44.08. Currently at 44.03.
Update 9:46 am (Hawaii) Had a whoopsie moment there. See, my preset sell price was 43.07, back when SLV was middling along at 42.60 or so. Didn't think it would happen today. But there I was a few minutes ago, finger on the trigger, debating on whether to unload for a decent 50¢ gain. I decided to wait and not sell. Thing is, I had my clicker on SELL, not CANCEL. So the trade ensued, I made a few bucks and naturally SLV is pushing to get above 43.10. I'm not too mad at myself. There will be ample opportunity to ride another silver swell.
Keeping an eye on WNR, still. Can't bring myself to buy above 18 even though it closed at 18.18 last Friday when I had a little paper profit in hand. But being back in 100% cash is never bad.
Mania is has a death grip on SLV, trading at 43.09 when spot silver is at 44.14. That converts to SLV 43.03 (-2.5% difference), so technically, I feel okay about the sell. Manias can last a long time, though.
Update 9:54 am (Hawaii) Afterhours trading could be busy and schwingalicious. Might take a re-entry point in SLV into that territory. SLV coming down from HOD 43.12, now 43.06. Maybe.
Update 10:26 am (Hawaii) Re-entered SLV before the bell, but the price has gone south. Lingered at 43.00 for a time after the bell, then a steady decline as profiteers cashed in. Now at 42.90 with spot silver at 43.97. By conversion, SLV is a few cents higher (than -2.5%). Ideally, selling immediately after the bell when there was no momentum upward would've been prudent. Then let NYMEX close shop at the bottom of the hour, then wait to see if CNBC talking heads talk spot silver up at the top of the hour. The half-hour coming up before 5 pm Eastern could be spooky. My paper loss isn't big, but I'm wary.
Update 10:46 am (Hawaii) Silver not faring too badly so far afterhours. Spot is 43.99, which converts to SLV 42.89.
Jesse of Jesse's Americain Cafe points out a need for caution in spot silver at these levels. His chart points out the sharp declines going into silver options expiry each month. The May expiry for silver is in exactly one week (Apr 26).
For now, if spot silver can hold here before the talking heads possibly boost it in roughly 10 minutes on CNBC, this late trade might work out after all.
Update 12:01 pm (Hawaii) Interesting. For several minutes before noon (6 pm Eastern), SLV traded up to 43.00, even though spot silver was well below 44. It was a nice comeback for my post-bell trade, but at 43.93 spot silver, SLV should have been trading (according to my little formula) at 42.83. And, sure enough, as soon as noon (Hawaii time) arrived and Fast Money ended, the first ask/bid went from 43.00/42.99 to 42.91/42.90. SLV has been sinking since in the past three minutes. I should have sold at near break even, but now I'm down 20¢ again (42.84).
It looks completely contrived. Every bid/ask lot is in round numbers by the 1,000s. I knew the hour would be up and that there was no form of catalyst left for today. Cramer won't be pumping silver, though he could well pimp his precious gold (GG). I'll wait this out. Again.
Update 1:40 pm (Hawaii) I'm glad in a way I don't have a smart phone. Otherwise I'd follow Globex and Comex 24/7. Addicting? Feels like it. Worse if I could/would trade commodities. Or better? One thing that renders all that silly thinking useless is that silver tends to stay put (or lower) once the domestic market closes shop for the day.
And with that said, SLV has just gone from 42.80 to 42.95 (ask) in the past few minutes. Far above the conversion; spot silver is 43.92, which coverts to SLV 42.82. This might be a wise move to unload some or all of my position here.
No comments:
Post a Comment