Friday, May 4, 2012

Frenchy Friday (update 10:27 am)

Why 'Frenchy'? Ohhhh ... no special reason. Nothing like, well, once the Spain headache passes, wait 'til ya see how messed up ol' Pierre and his ladies are there in Paris (pronounced Paree, of course). Or that 'French Kiss Friday' would've been far more interesting, disturbing and ... visual.

No, 30 minutes before the opening bell, I feel sprightly, whatever that means. Not quite tingly. But certainly fortunate and blessed. I just walked out a motion picture theater after hearing big booming sounds in stereo, watching a fantastical (no pun intended) film for 2 1/2 hours. Yes, "The Avengers" was all that and a bag of popcorn, literally. Thumbs way up.

But while the film entertained a packed theater at 2 am, the market was open (premarket) and the latest economic (jobs) report was unleashed. I could've been home keeping watch on my precious portfolio. But I didn't. I went to see a flick. It was worth it.

I've kept GSVC for a few days now, willing to ride it out through the coming Facebook bullet train tour of America. I also re-entered ZAGG, which isn't a bad idea considering the earnings report was awesome and the company unabashedly forecast superbness in the coming quarter with the expansion of sales to Wal-Mart shelves, and to much of Planet Earth.

There currently is no argument against Zagg products nor the Apple gems that Zagg products accentuate (and protect). Oh, there will be issues in coming months and years for the company, no different from any other. But this crew has it down pat for now. I don't think in terms of black or white, perfect or shitty anymore. After all, CROX had the world in the palm of its hand for a time, but a little digging revealed that the crew there were Flextronics vets. In other words, they knew exactly how to spin numbers and product and distribution and expansion — perfect ingredients to send a stock skyrocketing like Iron Man in a hurry to save civilization.

ZAGG is trading between 12.40 and 12.70 this morning. I picked up my old position at 12.06 after hours yesterday. If you tried buying shares in afterhours yesterday, you know it was pretty weird and I'll leave it at that.

I also picked up a bit of FAZ in case the market fell off a cliff, and though GSVC (18.80, up $0.25 this morning) and ZAGG are up, FAZ is up, too. Now 21.88 (+$0.36) after I grabbed some at 21.58 before the end of afterhours trading yesterday.

Have some catching up to do with the market when I get home. Until then, a toast to French poodles and French fries.

Update 4:04 am ZAGG stuck in the 12s, no complaints though. Are the big boys done shorting and manipulating here? FAZ just hit 22.27 as the Dow went to -100. GSVC selling a bit down to 18.30, which smells more like an opportunity to add a few more shares than to sell.

AAPL flirting with 571 again. I still visualize it sliding to a Fibonacci retrace level of 546, which is possible once earnings season ends and the doldrums arrive for a few weeks (days?).

LNKD interesting in this range of 118-119. YELP ... like the site, but not the stock.

Update 5:35 am Added a little more FAZ at 22.41, keeping an eye on that handful. Any good news brings the financials and FAS back, and would reverse FAZ's nice move this morning. Now at 22.53 after drifting in the 22.40s. Big buy jolted it into the 22.50s. Weekend is coming, traders want to be risk adverse/flat, and the non-farm payroll report in premarket all working in collusion.

Nothing to do with France or job numbers. Just a girl who's a lotta fun.

Update 7:01 am FAZ inched up to 22.62, but I hung on. Volume picking up on this normal decline from the high and I'm out at 22.48. Easily could run to another intraday high, but I wanted to lock in a little profit on the 24-hour trade(s). More likely than not traders will prefer to carry FAS or FAZ over the weekend.

Dow is off its low, now -159.

GSVC in the green (18.69) and ZAGG holding on at 12.43 (+4.1%).

Update 10:27 am Between yesterday and today, my thesis was correct. A rarity. Executing through that process, though, was not flawless. I got out of FAZ with a decent gain. It was a small position, for protection more than anything, but it turned out that ZAGG and GSVC were not destroyed by the general market like most other stocks.

ZAGG continues to boggle my mind. On Thursday, it was completely smashed, Hulk style, before the earnings report. And when that report was a plus-plus all the way around, it wasn't tradable online. I got back in by making a phone order. Strange and worthy of investigation? Out of my league.

So today, with the report providing concrete support, ZAGG finally behaved properly, running up to 12.75 in the morning after closing below 12 yesterday. I had no idea that I should've put in a stop loss sell order. ZAGG closed at 11.95, just 2¢ above Thursday's close.

Not horrific, but absolutely mind-bobbling. It would be an oversimplification to say that this small company's stock is being puppeteered. But that doesn't explain a lack of buyers in the afternoon. So that leaves one other viable explanation: It was strictly a pump-and-dump for day and swing traders.

Even if the market opens on Monday flat on its face, I'll still be in this position. Unless I somehow walk out of it in afterhours trading today. Bid (11.97) and ask (12.03) are pennies below my basis. It's a sour taste, to be at this point with ZAGG after all that happened yesterday and that nice paper gain right after the opening bell today. But that stop-loss should've been in. (I don't consider stop-loss a cure-all by any means, but in certain circumstances, it is valuable.)

GSVC made a huge run in the final few hours as speculators jumped on the Facebook bandwagon. I didn't anticipate a move quite like that. It traded down early to 17.92, but at 11 am Eastern, it began an ascent. Pure and golden, from the lower left to the upper right on the chart. GSVC seemed to stall out at 19.25 or so at around 2 pm Eastern. I thought about selling, thought about adding, then left it alone. Then came another move higher, and it is now at 19.65 after hours. A 5.9% gain today, and it's just below its high of the day (19.73).

All this with AAPL down 2.9% to 565.15, the Dow down 168 (-1.3%), Nasdaq down 68 (-2.25%) and S&P down 22 (-1.6%).

So why would I get FAZ yesterday at the close and not now? Simple. Europe often times comes up with its most lamebrained solutions on weekends. Their "solutions" to fiscal desperation are nothing but  symbolic thumbs in the dyke, printing more fiat than ever intended. I see no news of a possible Euro Union get together soon, but it's not worth taking that chance. FAZ could continue to run next week. But it could easily get kneecapped as politicians appease banksters on both sides of the pond.

By that line of reasoning, I should be out of ZAGG. The catalyst is past. Earnings is done until next quarter. Wal-Mart is in the game plan. Without a triumphant, drunk-on-its-own-vomit go-go market, there's nothing to push ZAGG higher for at least a few days, if not a few weeks. If AAPL can't hold its ground, how the hell will ZAGG stay at 12?

Another worry about small-cap stocks is always the possibility (threat) of a secondary offering. It can spring up any time without the slightest bit of warning. ZAGG seems to have its financial house in order, judging by what I heard on the conference call yesterday. But I have to consider the best- and worst-case scenarios.

In a nutshell: Non-buyer's remorse for not adding more GSVC in the morning when it was below 18; non-seller's remorse for not unloading ZAGG in the morning for a fair profit; unwilling to overpay for FAZ here at 22.50 or so (after hours). A very small position wouldn't hurt.

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