Friday, November 2, 2007

Crocs faces poachers

By nature, I'm a buy-and-hold investor, but the best thing I've learned from Cramer is that the street owns. If the street wants something, it gets it one way or another, sooner or later. That's why he pushes the profit-taking mantra daily. Take half off if you have a huge profit. He knows and now I know it's been a Trader's Market for a while now, and there's extra money to be made by trading a half-position, 2/3 or 3/4 position, whatever, in your best stocks.

Crocs is a classic example. The street was far behind the common investor on this stock, and the street has been trying to punish us little guys forever (high short interest). Well ... they finally got to us, street gets the last laugh. Bank the short, put cheap CROX shares on the books. Twofold win. Manipulation? What manipulation? The street wouldn't do that, would they?

Of course they would. Legal or otherwise. But there's no crying in investing. Who can be poached by the street when profits are already in the bank? That's why Cramer, in his own way, is absolutely right ... much as I hate to do short-term trading. I'm just glad the bleeding has finally stopped. In 2006, AAPL went from 87 to 53 (July). If Crocs maintains growth rates above 100% and the dollar remains weak, numbers from overseas could surpass anyone's imagination. Maybe an Applelicious type of run ahead. I don't doubt it could happen.

Apple is at 187 today. If Crocs has a similar buying psychology (it doesn't because of immense hatred from bears/shorts) and we have a similar reversal, the sky is still the limit.

Back to Cramer. He implores the masses (his groupies) to take significant profits as quickly and prudently as possible, in effect beating the street whenever there's a run. The street knows this, and takes profits earlier and earlier. We have an accelerating pattern of sells on surges, and thus, mammoth volatility. Cramer did some of us a favor by hating Crocs overnight. Those of us with dry powder.

Remember, he always said the time to sell Crocs would be after it had four big-time analysts following it. Never happened. A string of good news will send shorts covering.

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