Friday, April 3, 2009

The Bear is dead?

Still have my Apple withdrawls, but it's getting better.

Instead of trying to micromanage and weave in and out of the market today, I let my trades sit. C, STP and WFC struggled to tread water for a good part of the day. So did the market. But all three wound up positive. C moved from 2.74 to 2.85. STP went from 13.95 down to 12.62 back up to 14.00. WFC from 15.33 to 16.34. No complaints here.

I scribbled down a projection yesterday of a 20% gain for this trio within the next three weeks.

C
2.72 (Apr. 2)
3.26 (Apr. 18, after 1Q earnings)

STP
13.95 (Apr. 2)
16.74 (Apr. 18)

WFC
15.33 (Apr. 2)
18.39 (Apr. 18)

Too optimistic? Maybe. Too pessimistic? Maybe. By the time Citigroup reports, most of the big boys in the financial sector will have reported. I think Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and others will report on the positive -- not perfect -- side of the ledger. I may wind up selling most or all of my C shares before earnings (Apr. 17). But I'm convinced and have been for the past few days that selling at a loss this early would not be prudent. I didn't sell at 2.32 and I'm not selling at 2.85. Ideally, I'll keep a small position after taking profits by the 18th.

Suntech Power really might be strictly for daytrading. Had I sold near 14, I could've bought back in at 13 for the ride back up. This is not going down very much despite the huge rally in the past week. There are 30 billion reasons in China why the nation's top solar company will thrive from the subsidies and stimulus money. Not a tough hold.

WFC? The 'W' could stand for wacky. Stock has made drastic turns up and down between 13 and 17 in the past two weeks. It's just strange to recognize that a bank stock is being played by daytraders, hedge funds, whomever. I'm fine holding these shares. Just might daytrade all or most of the shares, though, with this volatility.

The jobs/unemployment report this morning did have an impact for a half-day. Maybe it bought buyers some time to get in, if Cramer is right and we're in a new bull market. I'm not quite as optimistic, but this is no bear market either. I'll be content to stay long with 25% of my portfolio and use the rest as a trading vehicle.

I still want them Apples.

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