Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Cramer revisits 1990

Sure, I'll admit it. Cramer was right. If I had approached the market with at least half of positions in pure trade mode instead of buy-and-hold-forever thinking, my account would be much, much healthier. When Cramer called for taking at least some profits off the table when Apple ripped its way above 140 several months ago, I scoffed.

But it wasn't holding or not trading Apple that hurt me. It was the small-cap growth monsters that ran up huge, and then fell off a cliff in the blink of an eye. I coulda, shoulda taken big profits out. I didn't. And with those painful experiences now converted into lessons, I am holding only three stocks, and more than half of my position in RIMM is for swing trading only. Instead of a portfolio of 13 stocks, it is much simpler to manage three. Much quicker and less emotional effect when I'm keeping my attention on just three stocks, and it feels much more fluid.

As of today, Cramer's thinking that we're back in 1990 and that in some ways, the market is bottoming out. Maybe. The past few weeks haven't been too painful for me. I have a lot of confidence in my Apple, RIMM and Nintendo shares, and they've held up quite well lately, even before the rally of Tuesday and today. In my mind, if the market were to crash, I wouldn't hesitate to get out completely, and that kind of thinking is absolutely necessary because we are in an atmosphere unlike any other in the past. My tendency is still to hold through downturns — I rode my swing shares of RIMM from 114 to 106 and back up to the current 121. But I'm becoming more and more comfortable with trading, as opposed to buy and hold, and I'll stay on that track until the U.S. economy regains its bearings.

And that could be years from now. More than likely, Cramer will be more right than wrong during that time.

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