Thursday, September 20, 2007

Bargain shopping yields 3 fair prices

Flat market today. A pause to refresh. Pit stop. Calm before the storm. Whatever cliche works for you, the next question is, where does the market go from here? Do stocks simply ramp up or will the market just tread sideways until earnings?

I'm guessing it will be the latter. U.S. economy slowing, global economy still forging ahead. Speaking of the latter, I'm surprised with my lack of China exposure in my portfolio. At one time, I had small pieces of Focus Media and Sina. I got out of FMCN because of its internal accounting issues. The Co still hasn't reported Q2 results, and Nasdaq hasn't settled their situation. SINA is China's top portal, and I would feel OK about stepping back in at a healthy entry point.

Baidu? At these levels, no. No way. A trader's fantasy, though. Now I want to look at what may be in the bargain bin of A and A- grade stocks.

Amazon 89. Leveling off and volume has declined for the past three days since the Fed rate cuts. After blowout Q2 earnings, Georges Yared wrote that the mutual funds would be marching into this stock. Then the market got skittish and AMZN went to 69 on sub-prime meltdown day (August 16). Well, 69 to 89 in a month ain't too shabby. The stock is trading slightly above its 10-day SMA (87). Jeff Bezos rules online retailing, and someday, Outer Space. The stock usually trades like the black sheep of the A grade family. Lags behind, then explodes. Pupule says: Wait.

Apple 140. Down for a second day in a row, just fractionally, on lower volume. Still trading above its moving averages; 10-day SMA is 137. Yared writes that the days of AAPL below 150 are numbered. I remember thinking that the stock was stuck in the 90s forever. That was in April. And then I let go of my shares despite my complete and utter belief about the iPhone and the Co. Never again, never again. Pupule says: Wait.

Crocs 56. The effect of nationwide reports about the sandals and escalator accidents is beginning to subside. Though CROX was up 2% today to 56.45, it continues to trade below its 10-day SMA (57) and EMA (56.99). Today's gain came on lower volume — there's not much conviction on either side of the fence right now. Is this a great buying opportunity? Pupule says: Buy small.

Garmin 106. Stock was down nearly 1% today on lower volume. GRMN (106.75) is a hair above its 10-day SMA (106.44) and EMA (106.25). Like all the A graders, this is a great Co that is hard to resist. Pupule says: Buy small.

Research in Motion 90. Down 1.4% today, but well above its moving averages. 10-day SMA is 86, EMA is 87. Pupule says: Wait.

Baidu 277. The stock was up again today, fractionally. BIDU has traded higher in nine of the last 10 sessions. Insane. The stock is at nosebleed levels. The 10-day SMA is 242 and the 10-day EMA is 249. Pupule says: Wait.

Blue Nile 99. Bit of a surprise that NILE is holding up with strength here. Strength? Yesterday, the stock hit 98 and did a free-fall to 91. Looked like the end of a nice ride for me (from 80). But NILE gathered itself and longs pushed it back up to 95. Today, with continued solid volume, NILE hit 100 briefly before recording an all-time closing high. Stock has been up in eight of the last nine sessions and is trading far above moving averages. 10-day SMA is 86; 10-day EMA is 89. Pupule says: Wait.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 110. Down 1.8% after five up sessions in a row. Volume today was low, but the stock is still above its 10-day SMA (97) and 10-day EMA (107). Pupule says: Wait.

CNOOC Ltd. 148. Oil hit a new high at $83 per barrel, but CNOOC dipped 3.5% today. Inevitable after zooming from a low of 92 one month ago to a high of 155 yesterday. Still a ways to go before my favorite oil/natural gas stock is buyable. 10-day SMA: 134. 10-day EMA: 137. Pupule says: Wait.

Flowserve 77. The opportunity to buy this pump parts company was a week ago, when I wrote about its discounted price. FLS is finally joining the party, and in a big way. Down a skosh today, but still expensive. 10-day SMA: 72. 10-day EMA: 74. Pupule says: Wait.

Google 552. Like NILE and FLS, GOOG was terribly oversold not so long ago. Since disappointing the street with Q2 results (and only because the Co invested in a ton of new employees mostly in China), the stock languished until this week. Today, GOOG was up another 1% on steady volume. In fact, the stock has been up seven of the last eight trading days, and volume on that down day was miniscule. 10-day SMA: 529. 10-day EMA: 533. Pupule says: Wait. When Baidu cools off, so will Google.

lululemon athletica 39. Another day, another all-time high for LULU (41-plus mid-day). Volume was substantially down today, but today's increase (3.6%) defied the market's down day. Four up days in a row, lower volume ... might be time for the stock to take a breather. Then again, tomorrow's Friday, and some of the big houses might want to furnish their rooms with sparkling new lululemon goodies. Trading well above its 10-day averages. Pupule says: Wait.

McDonald's 54. A nice, reliable way to play China's booming economy. Mickey D was down 1% today, but volume was weak after several huge days on the upside since the Co's announcement of a 50% dividend hike. I sit in Starbucks, but I invest in Mickey D. 10-day SMA: 53. 10-day EMA: 50. Pupule says: Wait.

Nintendo 63. The stock languished in the 50s for a six-week stretch, doing its best CROX imitation. Now that the Co has announced increased supply of the Wii console for the US this holiday season, there's reason to be bullish again. Apparently, longs didn't wait, pushing the stock up in four out of five days. Today's 1.1% decline was due, and the trend is up, but it's better to be patient. 10-day SMA: 59. 10-day EMA: 60. Pupule says: Wait.

Potash 98. Instead of slowing momentum, Potash saw volume increase in today's massive 5.1% run-up. This stock never ceases to amaze me. I find myself writing the same things about POT that I did about CEO. 10-day SMA: 90. 10-day EMA: 91. Pupule says: Waaaait.

Synaptics 46. Huge move up came to a halt yesterday. Today, the stock sold off 3%. 10-day SMA: 44. 10-day EMA: 45. Close but no cigar. I like touchscreen, I like this Co, but ... Pupule says: Wait.

Under Armor 63. Having a high valuation (forward P/E of 48 versus CROX's forward P/E of 22) doesn't help UA sometimes. Down 2.9% today, five down days in the last six and nine downers in the last 12. Co needs at least one more blowout quarter to silence the bears, shorts and doubters. Until then, the stock will continue to snooze. UA (63.34) is trading below its 10-day EMA (63.60) and just above its 10-day SMA (63.26). Pupule says: Price is reasonable, but buy very small if at all.

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