Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Discipline is our friend, not foe

I keep telling myself this as my favorite stocks propel out of orbit and into the stratosphere. Keep the discipline. Don't chase. Never chase.

Sure, paying too high a price for a great stock often works out in the long run. But smart shopping is never a bad thing. A great company watches every penny and isn't afraid to spend those pennies — at the right price — if sustainable growth is realistic. Same goes for me. I hope so, anyway.

Guess which stock I bought a little of today?

AAPL $133. This was a steal until yesterday. Now, it's trading above its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

AMZN 78. Also trading above its moving averages, slow to move (as was Apple) at first when the market bounced. Pupule says: Wait.

CROX 58. My beloved Crocs, which I wear when not sleeping, and even then, my feet would not complain if I did. No, Crocs pulled back a bit today (but is now in green territory in after-hours trading) and is still out of its moving averages. That's what happens with a huge, 30% gain off of last week's rock-bottom lows. Closed at $58, but due for a dip. Pupule says: Wait.

GRMN 101. As tempting as it is to jump in when the stock is down a buck, the stock is still way above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

RIMM 81. And now trading above 82 in AH. The problem is that RIMM did a juggernaut move like CROX and now has to take a breather. Tempting, just like CROX and GRMN — all three raised guidance after Q2 earnings — but still best served with patience. Pupule says: Wait.

So, with all of my A grade stocks unbuyable for disciplined hands, what to do? Shop a little more, that's what.

BIDU 204. Traded at 161 four sessions ago. What a difference one week makes. Drifting high above moving averages here. Pupule says: Wait.

CEO 110. Was such a strong buy yesterday and had been since Thursday when the stock dropped to 92. At 110, CEO is now in its 13- and 50-day averages, but the bargain price is gone for now. Pupule says: Buy.

CMG 102. Stock is lagging the other A and A- picks since Thursday. Trading at its 13-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy.

FLS 69. Great earnings but bad timing. Good for discount shoppers. Flowserve is still below its 13- and 50-day moving averages here. Pupule says: Strong buy.

GOOG 512. Nice, steady climb since Thursday, trading within its 13- and 50-day MA. Well off its all-time high of 558. So the Co spent more in Q2 to hire quality employees. Does that make Google less of a great company or just intelligent about how to best grow the country in burgeoning monlithic economies like, say, China? Pupule says: Strong buy.

NILE 81. Was slow to move when the market rebounded, but is picking up speed now. Stock trading in its 13-day MA, worth waiting for, but not a bad price here. Pupule says: Buy.

NTDOY.PK 55. Stock has struggled more than most in the past week because of weakness in the Nikkei. I scooped up a few shares here, mostly for my nephew (monthly stock "drip" from his uncle). Stock now trading between its 13- and 50-day MA. Stock closed at 55.75, 7.3% above its low of last week. That's some serious lagging compared to RIMM and CROX. Pupule says: Buy.

UA 68. After a triumphant explosion, the stock is cooling quickly and pulled back today while the rest of Nasdaq gained 31 points. Still trading above its moving averages, but I'm watching closely for a healthy entry point. Pupule says: Wait.

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