Friday, September 7, 2007

Where does the maze lead us?

Subprime mortgages down the toidy. Job reports reflect major economic slowdown. Are things really as bad as they seem?

Unemployment is 4.5% and growth may slow to 2%. Meanwhile, growth in China is 11.9%. Hmm...

I'm far from being an alarmist, and though I refrained from buying today, sniffing around for bargains is never a fruitless pursuit. Though several of my fundamentally sound growth favorites — A and A- grade stocks — are at reasonable prices, I'm going to wait until Monday at the earliest to enter. If there's another dip early Monday, my spider-sense will be tingling.

Here's to the hunt.

Apple 131. Yesterday, it was the iPhone price cut. Today, the jobs report. In just three days, AAPL has sunk from 145 to an intra-day low today of 130. A shortie's paradise. At 131, AAPL is below its one-year 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages. Pupule says: Buy small, wait for more discounting.

Amazon 84. Even with the dip, AMZN is trading far above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

Crocs 56. Actually, 56.92. Since its blowout Q2 earnings report and raised guidance, CROX has traded mostly in the 55-60 range, but the market's vulnerabilities have opened the stock up to major dips. At 56, CROX is at its 13-day moving averages, but patience could reap bargain prices. Pupule says: Buy small and be patient.

Garmin 105. The stock came down and touched its 13-day MA today (102), but at 105 is a skosh too high. Love the Co, but the stock isn't in line yet. Pupule says: Wait.

Research in Motion 80. The Blackberry Cult makes more and more sense to me, yes, me ... a guy who didn't have a cellphone until 1999 (work requirement). I didn't had a cellphone with photo capability until a few months ago, and I still haven't touched an iPhone or any other newfangled fancy thingamajig. (I can't believe that I walked into the Apple store last week and didn't even look at an iPhone.) And yet, with everything that the Crackberry can do, I can understand the addiction. Beats carrying around a PC. As for the stock, it now touches its 13-day averages. Pupule says: Buy small, wait for big discounts.

Baidu 213. With the U.S. economy slowing to a snail's pace, China is obviously the place to be. However, at 213, BIDU is too pricey. Far above its moving averages, but trending closer. Pupule says: Wait.

Blue Nile 75. The insider selling has compounded the stock's problems. I'm still bullish based on the company's growth rates and fundamentals, as well as its first-mover position in the online jewelry pocket. At 75, NILE is at a major discount, far below its 13-day MA and almost below its 50-day averages. Pupule says: Strong buy.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 101. Stock is now touching its 13-day averages, far above 50-day MA. Pupule says: Wait.

CNOOC Ltd. 122. The stock barely moved despite today's 250-point drop on the Dow. At 122, much too pricey, well above all its moving averages. If you got in at 92-110 in mid-August, you are a genius. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.

Flowserve 69. Pumps and meters are not sexy, and that's the only reason why this brilliant company is trading at its 50-day MA, and far below its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Strong buy.

Google 519. Recent gains have evaporated, but the overall picture is bright. China. Cellphones. Cellphones in China. The Chinese rely on cellphones for almost all their internet access. Google isn't beloved by citizens of the Middle Kingdom, so the Co simply BUYS the love. It is working. The stock is trading between its 13- and 50-day MA. Pupule says: Buy cautiously, conservatively.

Nintendo 58. The stock was between its 13- and 50-day MA for a couple of days. Not now. At 58, NTDOY.PK is above its averages. Pupule says: Wait.

Potash 87. The stock is finally back to earth, sorta. At 86, POT is touching its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Buy small.

Under Armor 63. One of the few stocks in the green today. At 63, UA is scraping its 13-day MA, well above its 50-day MA. Forward P/E is 50, compared to CROX's 23. Guess which stock I prefer? Pupule says: Buy cautiously.

Today's best buys

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